The 2024 NFL season is finally upon us and with every new season brings new future bets. For those who have followed me in any previous NFL season, you know that I am a big futures bettor who has had success every single NFL season. I have yet to lose a big futures bet (4u or 5u), although I keep them few and far between with a 6-0 lifetime record on such bets. We were able to cash last season on 2 4u plays, DAL O9.5 wins and PHI U11.5 wins, respectively. This season, we have our eyes on a ton of futures, 3 of which are big wagers. I look to keep the money rolling in in the NFL futures market and expect to move to 9-0 on big ticket futures at the conclusion of this NFL season. Let's get into the plays.
Kansas City Chiefs U11.5 Wins -105 (ESPN Bet) (1u)
I am fading the back-to-back Super Bowl Champion Chiefs for one unit in the 2024 regular season. This is simple, 12 wins is a lot to get in the NFL no matter who you are. That being said, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have proven me wrong many times and are a tough fade on a week to week basis and while I like the play, I am only laying 1u on it and will be utilizing my bankroll on other plays that I like more. The Chiefs have a tough schedule this year, starting off with an AFC Championship rematch against the Baltimore Ravens, followed by a matchup with their rival Cincinnati Bengals. Two road games follow against the heavily improved Atlanta Falcons and division foe with a good track record against KC, the LA Chargers. The bye week comes early for KC which is a disadvantage in my opinion, and the remainder of their schedule sees teams such as the 49ers on the road, Buccaneers, Bills on the road, Browns on the road, and the Texans, all of which made the 2023 postseason. There are ample opportunities for the Chiefs to lose this season and at the end of the day, they don't care about the regular season. They want to make the playoffs and get hot, similarly to what they did on their way to the Super Bowl last season. Lastly, if KC has the division locked up early, they may rest starters late in the year when they're on the road at PIT and DEN. I think the Chiefs go 10-7 this season to cash the under 11.5 season wins at a nice price.
Green Bay Packers to Win the NFC North +240 (Caesars) (1u)
This is simply a value play. The Lions are favored to win the North after their impressive 2023 campaign, as they likely should be. Detroit got better this offseason and should contend yet again in 2024 for the Lombardi Trophy. That being said, I think they take a step back in the regular season and impress more in the playoffs. When I look at the schedules for the NFC North, the Lions and Packers are the two teams that I believe will compete for the division. While Chicago will improve, they will need a year or two before competing with DET and GB. MIN should be a bottom feeder and I don't see them being very competitive this year. That leaves the Lions and Packers. Looking at their schedules, I predict both teams to go 10-7 and think the division winner will be a coin flip. I will take +240 on a coin flip all day long and as much as it pains me to go against my hometown Lions, I cannot pass up the value on Green Bay.
Houston Texans U9.5 Wins +128 (Fanduel) (1u)