The first thing you need to remember when betting the Oscars is who is voting and when. It isn’t like betting on teams in sports, you’re voting on the fans. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences conduct the voting. Around 10,000 members who work in the field vote over a few days within a week of the awards ceremony. I went 13-8 last year and am 18-9 overall in my Academy Award betting career, netting me a 67% winning bet percentage.
Best Picture
The Favorite: Anora -240
Anora has moved from a +450 to a -240 favorite in a matter of a few weeks. I'm shocked, and I don't know why this line would move THIS much. Availability isn't normally something the academy cares about, and maybe this line has moved so much because people have seen Anora on streaming sites while The Brutalist is still in theaters. People like betting on what they know, and Anora was a juicy +450 dog that could have been bet to oblivion. Anora was a very enjoyable movie, but it doesn't feel like anything new or as impactful as past winners. Unfortunately, all the value Anora had was gone and I hate this pick now.
The Value: The Brutalist +400
The 3.5-hour long architecture epic is nominated for a plethora of awards, but none are bigger than Best Picture. It also has major nomination in Best Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress. This reminds me a lot of last year's Oppenheimer that won many of these same categories. It has superb camera work and acting performances that paired with the immigrant experience and an introspective look at class, making it a strong option for the biggest award of the night.
The Dark Horse: The Substance +10000
This entry takes a played-out story and puts a twist in that makes it completely different from its predecessors. There are some great performances, and it can be weird in the right way at times. At other times, I feel like it isn't serious enough to win the biggest award on the biggest stage.
The Pick: The Brutalist +400
The Brutalist feels like the obvious winner this year. It has all the aspects you want for the biggest award of the night.
(Fade: Emilia Perez)
Best Director
The Favorite: Sean Baker -125
Baker is the director of Anora, and like his movie, he went from a big dog (+550) to the favorite. I don't hate this pick as much as Best Picture though. Baker hit on some KEY criteria including excellent film vision, acting performances, and visual style. Anora is easily recognizable through a single frame of film, which is hard to do and is an ode to the success Baker had with his film.
The Value: Brady Corbet +100
Brady Corbet directed The Brutalist and did a masterful job completing his vision from beginning to end. He was able to get phenomenal acting performances while also excelling in the technical aspect that comes along with creating a movie. Of the 89 films that won Best Picture that also had a nomination for Best Director, 68 of those directors won this award. That is a 76% chance, making Corbet and Baker the best options this year.
The Dark Horse: Coralie Fargeat +2500
The Substance was a unique movie this year that sticks out amongst the rest for its originality. The editing and vision are great and there doesn't feel like there is any down time in this film. A recent critique has been the lack of female directors to have won this award. In my opinion, this trend continues, but Fargeat could be a surprise.
The Pick: Brady Corbet +100
I like Corbet to win this award paired with The Brutalist winning Best Picture. It was a masterful job and Corbet achieved a polished movie deserving of multiple awards.
(Fade: James Mangold)
Best Actor
The Favorite: Adrien Brody -230
Adrien Brody is likely feeling some Deja Vu. He won Best Actor back in 2003 for his role in The Pianist. The movie names are similar, he plays a Jewish Holocaust survivor, and the movie is nominated for many of the same awards. Brody plays the role well and you feel his character is authentic making him a worthy favorite.
The Value: Ralph Fiennes +1400
Fiennes is a highly respected actor, and he continues to shine in his role in Conclave. He is tasked as the man in charge of leading the cardinals on the journey of selecting a new pope while struggling to deal with his own faith and the mysterious sudden death of the previous pope. You find yourself rooting for Fiennes while also sympathizing for him. Due to the extreme focus the movie has on the task at hand and the weight of ethical morality, Fiennes shrinks to feeling more like a passive observer than a commander of the screen.
The Dark Horse: Sebastian Stan +4200
How did I miss the commercials for this movie? The film follows a young and ambitious Donald Trump and his rise to fame and success. I think the best part about Stans performance is how his character truly changes in personality throughout the movie. He doesn't just display a range of emotions, instead it is an entire abandonment of character from who he is at the beginning of the movie to who he is at the end. The way Stan plays Trump without going over the top and making it comical while also nailing mannerisms is a class act and I believe he is a live dog to win.
The Pick: Adrien Brody -230
Brody has immense screen time and owns the screen. This is the type of character depth that the Academy looks for.
(Fade: Colman Domingo)
Best Actress
The Favorite: Demi Moore -138
Moore being the favorite from The Substance makes you feel the drop off in quality from last year to this year. Emma Stone felt so new and authentic and Demi Moore's character, Elisabeth Sparkle, feels like a story that has been told hundreds of times about how money and fame can't buy you time on earth and happiness. Demi is great, but she is also like half of the lead sharing time with Margaret Qualley. Demi is relatable and feels real, which is why she is a great candidate and front runner for this award.
The Value: Mikey Madison +130
Mikey Madison plays the modern Pretty Woman role and absolutely excels. I was worried through the beginning of the movie that her character would lack depth but by the end, she had me totally convinced. She happily teases and has sarcastic quirks that come off more genuine than forced into the character. Then the eventual turn to acting out emotions like scared, betrayed, vengeful, and deep sorrow is masterful. Last year, Emma Stone was 2nd in odds before jumping up to the favorite right before the Oscars and I see that potentially happening again this year. Madison shines and has a real stand-alone Oscar worthy performance.
The Dark Horse: Karla Sofia Gascon +3500
Gascon is the first openly trans actress to receive a Best Actress nomination for her role in Emilia Perez. They play the main role of a Mexican drug lord who has always dreamed of being a woman. He abandons his family and fakes his death to have gender reassignment surgery making KSG an ideal candidate for the role. She has recently been exposed for controversial views on Muslims, George Floyd, and the lack of diversity in the Academy Awards. It could be a bad look on the Academy if she wins while also giving the greatest female award in film to someone who is not a biological female.
The Pick: Mikey Madison +130
None of the characters, besides possibly KSG, reach the same range of emotions and give you something that feels different. Madison made Anora, a movie I was initially very skeptical about, a movie that you tell your friends about.
(Fade: Cynthia Erivo)
Best Supporting Actor
The Favorite: Kieran Culkin -750
I always have movies I'm skeptical about that are either surprisingly enjoyable or as dull as I expected. I personally felt that "A Real Pain" fell flat. We need a break from the underachieving pot-head loser sibling storyline for a bit. I find his character unserious and off-putting in a lot of ways. The movie would have him crying and being an emotional person. But when it came to his interaction with the main character, (Jesse Eisenberg) he would downplay the pain and wouldn't go deep or lean into his emotions. Things instead would feel bitter.
The Value: Guy Pearce +1800
The Brutalist's entire premise is based on the building funded and thought up by Pearce's character. He is the yin to Brody's yang. He does an excellent job of portraying the villain in this movie that is more than just the solo character. He represents the wealthy and bigoted that pray on the less fortunate. He is on a power trip and commits an ultimate evil with an ambiguous ending leaving the viewer to fill in the gaps.
The Dark Horse: Jeremy Strong +2600
Strong deserves more recognition for his role in The Apprentice and is worthy of winning this award. He is able to subtly play his character where it never feels like he is over or under acting. He is a strong character, and it feels his role is just as meaningful as the main characters. The movie is about Trump adopting the personality of Strong's character, making Strong the MOST IMPORTANT factor in this movie.
The Pick: Guy Pearce +1800
Pearce likely evokes the biggest emotional reaction from viewers and does a good job switching back and forth from likable to evil depending on circumstance.
(Fade: Yura Borisov)
Best Supporting Actress
The Favorite: Zoe Saldana -650
Saldana has been great for a long time, and she shines again here. With Emilia Perez being a musical, her scenes come off as corny at times but that is just the nature of the beast with musicals. Her character grows throughout the movie and has to witness and be a part of multiple events that make her, and the viewer, question their own personal moral ethics. Saldana is the supporting actress, but her role is nearly the most pivotal in the entire movie.
The Value: Ariana Grande +800
I didn't know how I felt with the casting of Ariana Grande for this role but boy was I wrong. I genuinely enjoyed her playing Galinda and was not familiar with just how funny she can be. She makes wicked FUN! Her character is the most fun and enjoyable of all the options available this year.
The Dark Horse: Felicity Jones +1600
If you watched the movie, you know there is an intermission in the middle of the film. It's an important breaking point as the 2nd act introduces the main characters family as the first half followed Brody and how he ended up working with Pearce. I don't see how Jones can win this award when she isn't even in half of the film. She does a great job portraying a frail woman suffering from osteoporosis whose spirit refuses to break. She has a chance to win, but she has a steep hill to climb.
The Pick: Zoe Saldana -650
Saldana's role is pivotal to the film, and she excels. It's a two-horse race between her and Grande with Saldana having the upper hand.
(Fade: Isabella Rossellini)
Best Film Editing
The Favorite: Conclave +145
The Brutalist was the initial favorite but has fallen behind and Conclave is the new category favorite. It is a well-polished movie, but it admittedly drags at points. The favorite still being at plus money goes to show the volatility of this award this year.
The Value: Anora +220
Anora's editing just feels right. It has the hectic cuts of the highs with the long draws of dialogue scenes that make the movie feel purposeful. The characters are able to jump to different locations without you feeling like you are "missing a step". They playfully edit the color tones throughout the movie to subliminally play on the audience's subconscious emotions. The pacing feels appropriate with just a few moments where the movie feels it is dragging its feet before jumping back into action.
The Dark Horse: The Brutalist +350
I'm not sure why the initial favorite has slipped down to third, but I think it's a mistake. About 2/3rds of the winners of this award are the movies that won Best Picture, and I don't see Conclave having a chance to win that award so I'm fading them here as well.
The Pick: The Brutalist +350
Your Oscar predictions are likely going to be heavy on Anora or The Brutalist and I'm going to stick to my guns here as well.
(Fade: Wicked)
Best Live Action Short
The Favorite: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent -1540
This short was so hard to find and once I finally found how to watch it, I was left totally underwhelmed. I know it is based on a true story, but that is about where the intrigue ends. The whole film is based on a short interaction and the rest of the movie is just people sitting nervously. It may have been purposeful to be more artsy, but it wasn't done well and came off as dull. This has to be one of the weakest favorites this year.
The Value: I'm Not a Robot +600
Honestly, I loved this short. It takes a modern-day annoyance in, having to prove you’re not a robot to use your own electronics, and runs with it. It balances a humorous concept with suspense leading to an enjoyable watch. It raises some interesting questions but likely lacks the impact and substance to make this an Oscar winner.
The Dark Horse: A Lien +900
They say art reflects the world, and we have a near mirror here folks. It tugs at your heart strings about the potential deportation and tearing apart of families by ICE agents that is already happening in the country. They show clips of President Trump talking while the tension rises making this movie feel very real. While the movie feels so real and is based off of things that are really happening, the way this movie is portrayed skews reality to have a bigger impact
The Pick: A Lien +900
I'm taking my shot here. No other Live Action Short is hitting this hard and this close to home. The value is on the dogs this year as I also believe "Anuja" has a shot at +230.
(Fade: The Last Ranger)
Best Animated Short
The Favorite: Wander to Wonder +115
This short film is about three miniature people who used to be characters in a kid's TV show. The old man who housed them has passed away in the house and the three mini people are descending into madness as they are running out of food.
The Value: Beautiful Men +150
Beautiful Men was somehow the favorite even though the title looks like it is covered in pubes and has more Claymation male genitals then you'd ever need to see in a lifetime. It's a story about three brothers who travel to Istanbul for hair transplants, and each are going through their own personal turmoil. Honestly, with this being the previous favorite, it goes to show how weak this category is compared to last year as I don't even think it was better than last year's Pachyderme which closed at +2000 odds.
The Dark Horse: Magic Candies +2000
What would you do if you could eat candy and then talk to things, like say, your couch. It definitely has a different feel and is a lot lighter than the two above which in my opinion is a good thing that makes itself stand out. That said, I don't feel it has the substance of the two above that could earn it a win.
The Pick: Wander to Wonder +115
Wander to Wonder is the best option in my opinion. It is more ambitious and does more for the viewer than Beautiful Men, which at times feels lazy.
(Fade: Yuck!)
Best Visual Effects
The Favorite: Dune: Part Two -700
One of my biggest critiques of last year's winner was that at times the visual effects didn’t feel blended and felt like a cheap green screen layer at times. Dune does a superb job of blending the real footage with the effects making the story feel more authentic. While I could probably knit pick some scenes that I thought needed more work, (the colosseum scene in particular) the crew did a great job of creating a world that kept you immersed for nearly 3 hours.
The Value: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes +600
The movie made entirely of visual effects. The movie looked good until the humans were introduced. At that point, you really felt how artificial the apes look in comparison. Blending the true footage with the effects seamlessly usually gets the job done but this film feels a lot like Avatar that won 2 Oscars in this same category. It isn't my pick, but it is a live dog.
The Dark Horse: Wicked +2000
Wicked does a good job of blending the VFX with the true film, making in a collaborative effort to transport you to the land of Oz. My one critique is that I feel at times you really feel the weight of what is real and what is not. The Emerald City feels so different than the other locations and not necessarily in a good way.
The Pick: Dune: Part Two -700
I'm still a little butt hurt about Godzilla winning last year over The Creator. This is a hard one to pick but I'm going with the movie that blends the VFX with its footage masterfully.
(Fade: Better Man)
Best Production Design
The Favorite: Wicked -280
I'm a little surprised that Wicked is the favorite, but I'm not mad about it. The sets were the right combination of realistic and whimsical like last year's winner Poor Things was. The library was tremendous, the emerald city was elaborate, and Munckinland was quaint. What I'm getting at is that everything just felt right in this movie. This entry has the right amount of fantasy to give the creators a chance to stand out and possibly win award while doing so.
The Value: The Brutalist +800
While the period pieces win less of the costume-based awards, they make up for it in production design. The Brutalist gives you the best of both worlds of the late 40s. It gives you the lows of immigrant life as well as the high life of established Americans. While the Brutalist does everything well, it still feels very familiar and sometimes familiar gets lost in the noise.
The Dark Horse: Nosferatu +2200
While Nosferatu had the blend of a period piece and fantasy, I feel they fell very flat. There is a lot of empty space which adds to the eeriness but also makes it feel like a miss for this entry. The movie has multiple scenes where they completely opt out of having a background and leave it a black void. If this entry wins, it will be due to the academies love for historical fiction
The Pick: Wicked -280
Wicked is my pick here as I think the academy will appreciate the effort this team put into making a fantasy land that still felt real and tangible.
(Fade: Dune Part Two)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
The Favorite: The Substance -370
The makeup department was really able to flex their chops in this entry. They were able to age their characters, create gnarly wounds, and even going into the grotesque at the end. It has become an even heavier favorite recently and rightfully so. They check off all the criteria boxes.
The Value: Wicked +350
Wicked is the only other movie that isn't + 4 digits and I don't know if I agree. They turned Cynthia Erivo green. After that, what? The hairstyling is not enough to get this movie the win either. Maybe I'm missing something, but what is it?
The Dark Horse: A Different Man +3500
The main accomplishment in this movie was making a believable disfigured face for Sebastian Stan. The movie is based around him being unhappy with his appearance and changing it through a dangerous medical trial. I honestly loved this movie but don't think it did enough to earn it the win.
The Pick: The Substance -370
This pick feels easy. The Substance nails everything for this entry and feels like the only logical pick.
(Fade: Emilia Perez)
Best Costume Design
The Favorite: Wicked -850
Wicked designers were placed in the same situation as the Poor Things designers last year, in that the only constraints they had was their own imaginations. I correctly predicted Poor Things to win last year as +250 dogs but I’m not getting lucky with my odds again this year. They got to design a mixture of cohesive outfits like the munchkins humble clothing to the school uniforms for Shiz. They also were able to flex their creative muscles on main character designs to make them pop on screen. Wicked is a heavy favorite and rightfully so. The costume designs differ so much from Munchkinland, to Shiz, to the Emerald city. Wicked may not win as many awards as some may feel, but this one feels nearly guaranteed.
The Value: Nosferatu +1600
Nosferatu has some wiggle room in the costume design as it is a mixture of an actual time period and folklore. The designers were able to take some liberties with both the German and Slovakian outfits and creatively use color and tones throughout the movie to convey the feeling through the characters attire. The formal wear is grandiose and is sure to win some votes for its blend of fantasy and authenticity.
The Dark Horse: Gladiator II +3500
Gladiator II unfortunately has the same constraints that Napoleon did last year that will get them a nomination but will never truly be in the running to win the category. Whereas in fantasy movies, the designers are only limited to their own imagination, historically based movies are forced to follow the trends of the era, and their cosmetics touches are more detail based. This usually results in nominations being as far as these movies go.
The Pick: Wicked -850
The parallels from last year's entries of this category to this year's entries are interesting and Wicked’s costume design draws identical comparisons to last year's winner.
(Fade: Conclave)
Best Cinematography
The Favorite: The Brutalist -270
This is one of the hardest categories to predict in my opinion. A big part of this award is about how the team uses color, framing, and lighting to convey the feeling of a scene or movie. The Brutalist masterfully uses different hues throughout the movie without making the color grading feel off or not cohesive. It also uses light and increased vibrance when on the wealthy estate while dulling the colors and darkening the shadows for the more poverty-stricken moments of the film.
The Value: Dune: Part Two +470
Dune won this award back in 2021, but I also think that Dune took more risks and had more variance. Most of the movie is in the open desert providing little opportunity for the team to work. The 2021 movie had different planets and more moments that stuck out. Dune: Part Two fails to deliver on what made the cinematography of its predecessor so successful.
The Dark Horse: Emilia Perez +3500
If there is going to be a surprise for this award, I believe it's Emilia Perez. No movie plays with lighting like Emilia Perez but that is also in part to it being a musical. No other movie is going to darken the scene and spotlight a character who sings while everyone else remains frozen in time. The color grading is all over the place with the different locations and is sometimes a little too powerful and hits you like a brick. It took the risks to make it stand out. Will the risk pay off?
The Pick: The Brutalist -270
No other movie did it as well or as consistently as The Brutalist did. The subtle color grading and changes in contrast put the other entries to shame.
(Fade: Maria)
Best Original Screenplay
The Favorite: Anora -370
My one knock on Anora is, how many of the voters will be calling this a reskinning of Pretty Woman. It's a great story and has twists and turns that will leave you shocked. It is different enough that I think Anora still has a good chance to win BUT it will come down to how much the voters value full originality.
The Value: The Substance +600
The Substance feels different from the rest of the films that are out there which is a good thing. It's an original idea that is well done. I don't feel like The Substance will win Film of the Year which makes me think that this entry is a live dog that could win here.
The Dark Horse: The Brutalist +1400
Having The Brutalist as this big of a dog may have some salivating, but I see it as a trap. The Academy is just fine giving this award to a movie that might not have won Best Picture. Pacing is one of the aspects that the Academy looks at and with a 3 and a half hour run time, they likely didn't check that box. It also more often looks at the big picture asking, "What is the movie about in a few words?". The Brutalist being about a guy building a building isn't going to move the needle.
The Pick: Anora -370
Anora likely has the best pacing of all the entries. It also has good characters and realistic dialogue with a conflict that leaves you satisfied yet emotional.
(Fade: A Real Pain)
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Favorite: Conclave -600
I sniffed out the +300 underdog American Fiction last year and this is the category to take chances on. That's why I'm so surprised Conclave is such a huge favorite. This might be the year to back the favorite. It's a very good movie, that I watched twice, but I don't think it will win many awards this year. My prediction is that this is the only award that Conclave will win.
The Value: Emilia Perez +1100
Emilia Perez makes another appearance on the list. This movie is based on the book Ecoute which was released in 2018. The movie revolves around one of the book charters but as far as I can find, that is about where the similarities end. Its name recognition is way bigger than Sing Sing, but they likely have the same chance of winning.
The Dark Horse: Sing Sing +2000
Sing Sing is based on the real-life Rehabilitaion Through the Arts (RTA) program at a maximum-security prison. The film uses real people who were in the RTA program giving them some extra clout in this category. It offers insight to what some may never see about the incredible change that people can go through as they process past trauma. While Sing Sing is the biggest dog in the category, I believe it is the second most likely to win.
The Pick: Conclave -600
Conclave is based on the 2016 novel written by Robert Harris. Conclave was able to entertainingly create a drama that felt real about something that happens in the real world.
(Fade: A Complete Unknown)
Best Animated Feature
The Favorite: The Wild Robot -180
The Wild Robot is a Dreamworks feature, so it didn't have the non-stop marketing that Disney employs and therefore flew under the radar. Honestly, if you don't have kids, you probably weren't planning on watching this movie. That is likely a mistake. The Wild Robot is a very cute and heartwarming movie that is about forgiveness and the bond and sacrifice of family. Truly, it's a celebration of motherhood and my pick for the best animated feature of the year.
The Value: Flow +160
Flow interestingly enough has no dialogue. The story relies on visual storytelling and audio soundtrack as you watch a cat, and other animals attempt to survive a post-apocalyptic flood. It has strong moments that without dialogue leave it feeling ambiguous and open for interpretation. The ending is powerful, as the flood recedes the cat comes across a whale suffocating on land. You truly feel the delicate balance of life where the scale tipped either direction results in loss of life. The fact that the movie relies solely on its animation to convey the story makes it an interesting choice to win Best Animated Feature.
The Dark Horse: Inside Out 2 +2500
Inside Out 2 likely won at the box office but that rarely equally correlates with winning awards. The initial Inside Out won the Oscar in 2016 which could spell trouble. The only movie to win Oscars on sequels were Toy Story movies (Toy Story 3, Toy Story 4). This will be the most popular movie among fans but i fail to see it taking home hardware.
The Pick: The Wild Robot -180
This category is so tough to predict. The Wild Robot has fantastic animation, a great story, a great soundtrack, and is all together superb. Is it good enough to beat out an entry that solely relies on its animation? I'm hesitantly going to say yes.
(Fade: Wallace & Gromit: VMF)
Best Documentary
The Favorite: No Other Land -250
No Other Land captures some of what is going on over in the middle east between Israel and Palestine. Just like last year winner about the events in Ukraine, this topic is at the forefront of our nightly news. I was not able to personally watch this entry due to it being available mostly across the sea. History tells me No Other Land wins making it back-to-back winners of topical docs.
The Value: Sugarcane +500
This documentary is just, wow. I'm going to try to keep my own personal opinions out of this as this is a very heavy documentary. I can't write in much detail because of how horrible it is, but the film is about the Catholic ran school St. Jospeh's parish in Canada. The Canadian government did not want the indigenous people in their schools, so they had these alternative schools opened that led to high rates of depression, drug use, and suicide among those who attended. The survivors are trying to receive justice and closure, but it leaves you with a pit in your stomach.
The Dark Horse: Porcelain War +900
Porcelain War is another documentary around the war in the Ukraine. It unfortunately feels like a very watered-down version of last year's winner 20 Day sin Mariupol. While it isn't a bad documentary, the Ukrainian fatigue has started to set in, and I think this entry will be hard pressed to gain many votes.
The Pick: No Other Land -250
This pick feels easy. I think Sugarcane was an excellent choice as well, but due to the topical nature and current violence in this entry will get it past the finish line.
(Fade: Soundtrack to a Coup dEtat)
Best Original Score
The Favorite: The Brutalist -290
The favorite is tied to the favorite for Best Picture but I'm going to give you a piping hot take. Not only should it not win Best Original Score, but I also personally believe it is the worst option we have. It sounds messy and convoluted. It reminds me of some of what the Beach Boys did with Pet Sounds, but it isn't as pleasing to the ears. It's the favorite, and I believe the only reason is due to its connection to the potential film of the year.
The Value: Conclave +500
This entry grew on me. This entry is so crisp and well executed that you can tell this was made and performed by true professionals at the top of their craft. The speed and volume changes throughout make it so it isn't repetitive, and it feels greater than just music alone.
The Dark Horse: The Wild Robot +750
I believe this should win Best Original Score by a country mile. This is likely the only one that you would listen to on repeat that also makes you feel the music. It is swelling, uplifting, and everything you want music to be. This score is good as a standalone, but it is the only option that truly elevated its film and feels synonymous.
The Pick: The Wild Robot +750
I don't care if it's a heavy dog, THIS IS THE BEST ENTRY ON THE LIST!!! Please listen to all the songs and tell me it isn't. If you say another song is better, you need to reevaluate your soul and discover why you're lying to an article on the internet.
(Fade: Wicked)
Best Sound
The Favorite: Dune: Part Two -220
Dune won the Oscar for best sound back in 2022, can its sequel repeat its success. I think it's possible based on the academy's prior winners. Action/War movies are the most frequent winner of this category since its inception in 1930. Dune has plenty of action and is able to creatively add and play with sound due to its fantasy concept. Star Wars won this award multiple times and we could see that happen again here with Dune.
The Value: Wicked +370
The sound in Wicked is exceptional and everything feels "right". You could sit in the theater with your eyes closed and still follow along with the movie and have a feel for where they are and what is happening. Wicked's subdued nature, and dialogue heavy, beginning and middle doesn't give it the movie long success that Dune has.
The Dark Horse: A Complete Unknown +750
One of the things that A Complete Unkown has going for it, is that we have recently has a musical biopic winner recently (Bohemian Rhapsody). If done well, I don't think there is any movie that has a higher ceiling than a musical biopic. Where I hesitate, is 2014's Love and Mercy didn't even receive a nomination, and I can't definitively say A Complete Unknown did sound any better.
The Pick: Dune: Part Two -220
I'm picking Dune to run it back. The sound of the sand worms, an alien desert wasteland, spaceships, gladiator arenas, Aaron Rodgers style ayahuasca trips from drinking worm blood, it's all very well done.
(Fade: The Wild Robot)
Best Original Song
The Favorite: El Mal -280
This award is likely going to Emilia Perez, but which song? El Mal is the favorite and rightfully so. I have no idea what she is saying without subtitles but is the catchiest song on this list. Zoe Saldana kills this song and scene, and you can feel the shift in the movie after this song.
The Value: Mi Camino +500
Mi Camino feels a little dated in my opinion, like it belongs in the late 80's early 90's. It even dips into a bit of a euro club feel at times which is comical. If an Emilia Perez song is winning, I'll be shocked if it's this one.
The Dark Horse: Never Too Late +1100
Did you yearn for a song by Elton John that sounded like a southern Baptist gospel song? Well, it's here folks. It isn't a bad song, but it feels like it drags and would be the music in the background of a slideshow on a YouTube video uploaded in 2008.
The Pick: El Mal -280
This favorite feels like a winner as it's an unforgettable part of Emilia Perez, like Billie Eilish's "What was I Made For" was to Barbie last year.
(Fade: Sing Sing)
Best International Film
The Favorite: Emilia Perez -110
It is CRAZY how much steam Emilia Perez has lost leading up to the Oscars. A lot of old tweets from the lead actress emerged and this movie has plummeted. It is still currently the favorite to win but I don't know if it will or if it should. When its content matter is stacked up to "I'm still here", it feels very silly. It has enough substance, and Emilia Perez does just enough to possibly get it over the finish line
The Value: I'm Still Here +105
I'm Still Here has slowly crept up and is breathing on Emilia Perez's neck. It features the very real and disturbing kidnapping and deaths of Brazilian citizens. It is real, raw, and emotional. There is no justice or happy ending just like it is for the real-life victims of these crimes. It makes Emilia Perez feel like a slap in the face.
The Dark Horse: Flow +2900
Honestly, good for flow. You wouldn't even know it was a foreign film as there's not a single word spoken throughout. It makes for a horrible 2nd screen movie but nails visual storytelling. There were a few parts that left me and my wife laughing and saying, "What the heck was that?!". After some time to reflect, those moments stand out in a movie that shows you everything for you to follow along. The ambiguity of some scenes ends up making those moments feel more profound and impactful as the story is reflective of YOUR personal interpretation. It will leave you in a "bird scene" reddit thread for an hour after watching, easily.
The Pick: I'm Still Here +105
This film is powerful and hits all the right notes to make it not just an International Film, but a recommended watch for anyone.
(Fade: The Girl with the Needle)
Best Documentary Short
The Favorite: I Am Ready, Warden +110
I enjoyed this documentary. It makes you feel for both the murderer and the victim's family. It also makes you question how ethical the death penalty is. It felt like an appropriate run time which is a big deal in this category because with it being a short, you don't want any drag time. While I wasn't blown away, it's worth of the nomination.
The Value: Incident +250
This entry pissed me off. It chronicles yet another murder of a black man by the police. A barber in Chicago was walking down the street when the cops noticed he had a gun. He was asked to produce his ID for his conceal and carry and while trying to give the officer the ID, two newbie cops tried to grab him and detain him. He pulled away from them and was then fatally shot in the street. The officer who murdered Augustus only served a two-day suspension. It is infuriating. The documentary uses body cam footage as well as street cameras to tell the story.
The Dark Horse: Death by Numbers +300
This documentary short is very hard to find so I'm going off what I have read and watched about this feature. It's about a girl who survives a school shooting and comes face to face with the school shooter to confront him. I can't imagine the trauma as I believe she was actively shot as well. It has a chance to win but the scarce availability of the film makes me think it may miss out on Oscar glory as well.
The Pick: Incident +250
It is incredibly impactful and relevant to today and is very creative in how it is put together. It may not be as polished as I Am Ready, Warden, but it leaves you with raw emotion and empathy that hits home.
(Fade: Instruments of a Beating Heart)
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Watch Ratings:
5 - Priority Watch, 4 - Must Watch, 3 - Recommended Watch, 2 - 2nd Screen Watch, 1 - Avoidable
The Brutalist - 3
A Complete Unknown - 2
Sing Sing - 2
Conclave - 2
The Apprentice - 4
Anora - 3
A Real Pain - 2
Wicked - 4
Emelia Perez - 2
The Substance - 3
I'm Still Here - 3
Flow - 3
Inside Out 2 - 2
Memoir of a Snail - 1
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl - 1
The Wild Robot - 4
Beautiful Men - 1
In the Shadow of the Cypress - 1
Magic Candies - 1
Wander to Wonder - 2
Yuck! - 1
Dune: Part Two - 3
Maria - 1
Nosferatu - 2
Gladiator II - 3
Black Box Diaries - 3
No Other Land - 4
Porcelain War - 2
Soundtrack to Coup D'etat - 1
Sugarcane - 3
Death by Numbers - 2
I am Ready, Warden - 1
Incident - 3
Instruments of a Beating Heart - 1
The Only Girl in the Orchestra - 2
The Girl with the Needle - 2
The Seed of the Sacred Fig - 3
A Different Man - 4
The Six Triple Eight - 3
Elton John: Never Too Late - 2
Nickel Boys - 2
A Lien - 3
Anuja - 2
I'm Not a Robot - 2
The Last Ranger - 1
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent - 1
Alien: Romulus - 2
Better Man - 1
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes - 2
September 5 - 3
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