Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
We have now reached the Round of 16 in the Champions League, this first season with the new League format.
We lost some big clubs in the Playoff Phase, notably Manchester City, AC Milan, and Juventus. We also saw Brest’s Cinderella story end at the hands of PSG.
We saw underdogs Feyenoord, Club Brugge, and PSV Eindhoven make it through, upsetting 3 Italian clubs.
It was a rough day for Italy as well as a rough day for our bets. I was backing the 3 Italian sides in various ways, but all with an eye toward advancing, and ended up going 0-3. We did hit our Bonus on Real Madrid, but our Best Bets were a bust.
Upcoming Matches:
We have some exciting matches to look forward to in the Round of 16, including a Madrid Derby, a match between the top two in Germany in Bayern Munich hosting Bayer Leverkusen, and a battle between two of the most in-form teams in Europe this season, PSG and Liverpool.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Bayern Munich Moneyline -130 (March 5, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my first Best Bet, I’m looking at the all-German match between Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen.
While these clubs have never met in European competition to my knowledge, they are well aware with one another from the Bundesliga, where Bayern Munich currently sit at the top, 8 points above Leverkusen in second.
These two have played one another three times already this season, a 1-1 draw in Munich, a 0-1 victory for Leverkusen in Munich in the DFB Pokal, and a 0-0 draw in Leverkusen just a few weeks ago.
The loss in the DFB Pokal was all but certain when Bayern went down to 10 men after a Neuer red card in the 17th minute. They also were without Harry Kane for that match.
In the recent 0-0 draw at Leverkusen, Leverkusen were the dominant side, however, Bayern were defending with everything they had in order to maintain their lead at the top.
But the knockout rounds of the Champions League are just a bit different than any of these prior games. Bayern have a history in this competition that Leverkusen cannot match, and that badge gets heavy on big European nights.
To that point, Leverkusen are unbeaten away in the Bundesliga, but have been beaten twice in while away in the UCL, to Liverpool and Atletico Madrid. Bayern Munich, on the other hand, are unbeaten at home in the Bundesliga and the UCL, the best home record in those competitions.
While I’ve heard a lot about how Leverkusen can get the upset and how Xabi Alonso has never lost to Bayern Munich as Leverkusen manager, Bayern will have an advantage at home, an advantage that has served them well for most of the season.
Pick #2: Liverpool to Win Either Half -125 (March 5, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our next bet, I’m backing Liverpool to have a good half against PSG.
This is a battle of two squads in impressive form. PSG are on a 10-match win streak and a 22-match unbeaten run. Ousmane Dembélé is scoring for fun, with 18 goals in Ligue 1 and 6 in the UCL. Liverpool have only lost 4 times in all competitions this season, with Mo Salah looking like his prime self and the midfield maintaining order.
I’m primarily backing Liverpool here because I think they will be tough for PSG to break down and they will be playing knowing that they can come back to Anfield and have a better atmosphere. A one-goal lead or even a draw should make Liverpool feel relatively confident for the second leg.
I think it will come down to the order in the defense and midfield for Liverpool. They will be tougher than arguably any opponent PSG has faced this season. Some of the other tough opposition has bested them this season (Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, and Bayern Munich) and, while this PSG side is in better form, I think they’ll struggle to break down the pragmatic Liverpool midfield and defense.
Pick #3: Barcelona Moneyline -120 (March 5, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last Best Bet, taking one of the odds-on favorites to win the entire tournament, Barcelona to win the first leg outright against Benfica.
Barcelona were one of the most dominant teams in the League Phase, finishing second and scoring the most goals with 28. They’re unbeaten in 15 matches in all competitions, outscoring their opposition 56 to 16 in that span.
Benfica are also unbeaten in 8, including their 0-2 victory over Juventus and their matches against Monaco in the playoff round. However, Benfica have struggled against European competition, especially at home, losing to Feyenoord, Bayern Munich, drawing with Bologna, and losing 4-5 at home to Barcelona in the League Phase.
That match involved some late heroics from Barcelona and they’ve been on fire ever since. Benfica will be without Ángel Di Maria, Renato Sanches, and Florentino Luis, so they’ll need to rely primarily on Vangelis Pavlidis for their goal threat, while Barcelona should have their front three of Raphinha, Lewandowski, and Lamal all fit, though they’ll be without Christensen in defense.
Season Record:
League Phase Best Bets: 12-12
Playoff Round Best Bets: 2-4
Season Total: 14-16
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