Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The first leg of the Round of 16 is in the books!
Among the biggest storylines was Arsenal’s demolition of PSV away from home, winning 1-7 with 7 different goalscorers.
Other big stories include Barcelona getting a 0-1 victory on the road at Benfica, despite playing with 10 men for over an hour, and Liverpool’s 0-1 win over PSG in Paris, despite putting in their worst performance all season and only having 2 shots and only 1 on goal.
Liverpool’s keeper, Alisson, put on a goalkeeping masterclass, giving us one of the best goalkeeping performances in Liverpool and UCL history.
We bounced back with Best Bets, hitting all 3 this week, although we got pretty luck with Barcelona and Liverpool getting their wins.
Upcoming Matches:
We now have the return legs to see who will advance. While PSV will surely be out of it, everyone else should have a fighting chance, though the 2 and 3 goal deficit for Feyenoord and Leverkusen, respectively, will be tough to overcome.
If you’re watching in the States, we do Daylight Savings Time a couple weeks before Europe, so the matches this week will all kick off at 1:45 p.m. EST and 4:00 p.m. EST.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay: Barcelona Moneyline and Inter Milan Moneyline -120 (March 11, 2025; 1:45 p.m. EST and 4:00 p.m. EST):
For my first Best Bet, I’m backing two favorites to win at home and comfortably advance: Barcelona and Inter Milan.
I’ve discussed it before in these articles, I don’t particularly love betting on 2-legged ties. The strategy is different and I feel as though I struggle to find a decent line, with the “To Qualify” market always seeming inflated.
My fear with a bet like this is that a team like Inter could sit back at home with a 2-goal advantage and simply play out a scoreless draw. However, Inter have only been held scoreless 4 times this season in all competitions, all of which were away from home. I anticipate they’ll want to give their fans a good European night with a win.
Barcelona are in a slightly more precarious position with only a 1-goal advantage, however, they’ve scored the most goals in La Liga and the most in the UCL League Phase this season. They haven’t lost at home in the UCL this season and I anticipate they’ll get an easy victory over Benfica with the home support behind them.
Pick #2: Lille to Advance -115 (March 12, 2025; 1:45 p.m. EST):
For our next bet, I’m backing Lille to advance over Dortmund.
Dortmund have struggled this season, languishing in 10th in the Bundesliga. Their record on the road has been poor, losing 7 in the Bundesliga and 2 in the UCL.
Lille, on the other hand, have not lost at home in UCL (3W 1D), and have only lost twice at home in Ligue 1, one of which was PSG back in September.
They’ve got Jonathan David, who has 14 goals in Ligue 1 (3rd place in the Golden Boot race) and has 6 in the UCL (tied for 10th).
Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy leads the UCL Golden Boot race with 11 goals. He and Karim Adeyemi have been bright sparks for Dortmund, but the team as a whole struggles if one of those two is off their mark. They both played 90 minutes at the weekend in a disappointing loss to Augsburg. Maybe they’ll turn up for this match, but they’ve been inconsistent across the season.
Pick #3: Real Madrid to Win Either Half -130 (March 12, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last Best Bet, I’m taking Real Madrid to Win Either Half against Atlético Madrid.
Madrid have a 1-goal advantage after winning 2-1 at the Bernabéu. They now travel across town for a Madrid Derby at the Metropolitano, their first UCL matchup at the venue.
I’m backing Real Madrid to at least win a half in order to help them advance comfortably. They are the giants of this competition and that class always seems to come out when required. They’ve pulled out big comebacks against the likes of Man City, PSG, and Liverpool in the last few years, just to name a few.
Real Madrid have advanced 21 out of 22 times in the UCL knockouts when they’ve won the first leg, and I think they’ll do the same here.
In the last 10 meetings between these clubs, dating back to September 2022, Real Madrid have won a half 6 times.
This will be a tough-fought match, but Real Madrid always find a way in this competition.
Season Record:
League Phase Best Bets: 12-12
Playoff Round Best Bets: 2-4
Round of 16 Best Bets: 3-0
Season Total: 17-16
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