Champions League Best Bets #14 (Quarterfinal 1st-Leg; April 8, 2025

Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

The Round of 16 is over and once again shows us why the Champions League is the greatest competition on the planet.

Most notably, Liverpool lost to PSG, requiring penalties to separate the sides after 2 legs, ultimately crashing out at Anfield in front of their home crowd.

Real Madrid advanced over their cross-town rivals, Atlético Madrid, also on penalties. Controversially, Julian Alvarez had his penalty taken away following a VAR review for a double touch after he slipped. The call was so controversial there have been calls to change the laws of the game to add intent to the rule.

Inter, Bayern, Barça, Arsenal, and Villa all won their two-legged affairs rather comfortably, while Dortmund, PSG, and Real Madrid advanced with a little more discomfort.

Our Best Bets went 1-2, winning our Parlay and losing on Lille and Real Madrid to win either half. We were on the verge of winning our Real Madrid bet when Mbappe earned a penalty, but then Vini stepped up and skied his penalty kick into the stands.

Upcoming Matches:

The Quarterfinals kick off Tuesday with Arsenal hosting PSG and Bayern Munich hosting Inter.

On Wednesday, we have Barcelona hosting Dortmund and PSG hosting Aston Villa.

All matches kick off at 3:00 p.m. EST and are shown in the States on Paramount+.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: Inter Milan To Win or Draw -115 (April 8, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my first Best Bet, I’m looking at Tuesday’s match between Bayern Munich and Inter Milan.

The big storyline in the media surrounding this game is all the injuries for Bayern Munich. They’ll be without their keeper, Manuel Neuer, as well as Alphonso Davies and Dalot Upamecano in defense. Up top, they’ll be without Jamal Musiala and Kingsley Coman.

Bayern were favorites when this fixture was drawn, especially since they’re at home, but the injuries have shifted those odds.

Other than short term injuries to Denzel Dumfries and Mehdi Taremi, Inter are fit. They haven’t lost in 10 matches, with 7 wins and 3 draws, with all draws coming on the road.

Further, Inter have only been held scoreless 4 times this season in all competitions, though all were away from home. This match will be an important opportunity for Inter to at least hold onto a draw so that they can have the advantage when they head back to the San Siro.

These first legs tend to be gritty, with neither side looking to concede too early. Bayern will be thin but have the home-field advantage, so I’ll take Inter to Win or Draw.

Pick #2: PSG / Aston Villa Both Teams To Score -130 (April 9, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For our next bet, I’m liking the Both Teams to Score Market, taking yes on BTTS -130.

The media headline around this match is Unai Emery and Marco Asensio heading back to their old club, now as the underdog looking for a scrappy fight.

Villa have been strong this season, currently 7th in the Premier League, and have won their last 8 matches, winning 9 of their last 10 and scoring 23 goals in that span.

Villa have reinforced their squad in January, bringing in Asensio from PSG and Marcus Rashford from Manchester United. They were able to rest a few players at the weekend and still pick up a 2-1 victory over Nottingham Forest.

PSG are the favorites and have only failed to score in 4 matches all season in all competitions. However, they’ve conceded at least 1 goal in each of their last 10 matches. I expect them to get on the scoresheet and likely win the match, but Villa should be able to ride their good form for at least one goal against PSG.

Pick #3: Barcelona -1.5 -115 (April 9, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my last Best Bet, I’m taking Barcelona on a -1.5 spread against Borussia Dortmund.

Dortmund have really struggled this season, currently in 8th in the Bundesliga. Their record on the road has been poor, losing 8 in the Bundesliga and 2 in the UCL.

Dortmund will be without Nico Schotterbeck, a big blow to their defense. They’ll also be without Marcel Sabitzer, a player with plenty of Champions League experience.

Barcelona, on the other hand, look like the best team remaining in the tournament. They finished second in the UCL group stage, scoring the most goals, and are currently sitting 4 points clear atop the La Liga table.

Barça won this fixture when these sides played in the group stage, though only by one goal. They were on the road for that match and I am betting they will have a stellar performance at home before traveling to Germany for the second leg.

Bonus:

With these gritty first legs, I often expect a slow start, as both sides look to avoid conceding early. For that reason, I’ll be dabbling with a quarter unit on First Half Draw for each of the UCL first legs, with the exception of Barça/Dortmund.