Champions League Best Bets #16 (Semifinal 1st-Leg; April 29, 2025 - April 30, 2025):

Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.

Recap:

Aston Villa put PSG to the test, winning this match 3-2, but losing 4-5 on aggregate. They came close to forcing extra time, but couldn’t quite find the back of the net.

Similarly, Dortmund beat Barcelona 3-1 in this leg, but lost the tie 3-5 on aggregate.

On Wednesday, Inter Milan held on and secured a 2-2 draw at home against Bayern Munich, winning 4-3 on aggregate. 

Arsenal quelled any talk of “La Remontada” from Real Madrid, beating them 1-2 in this leg, 1-5 overall. While Bukayo Saka missed his penalty, he came back swinging to score in the 65th minute. 

Our Best Bets went 2-1, losing on Barcelona and winning rather comfortably with our player props.

Upcoming Matches: 

Now comes the semifinals. 

Arsenal host PSG on Tuesday for the 1st-leg, before traveling to Paris next week Wednesday.

Barcelona host Inter Milan on Wednesday, then travel to the San Siro the following Tuesday for the return-leg.

All matches kick off at 3:00 p.m. EST and are shown in the States on Paramount+.

Let’s get to the bets:

Best Bets:

Pick #1: PSG to Win Either Half +110 (April 29, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my first Best Bet, I’m looking to the Tuesday match between Arsenal and PSG. While I don’t totally trust PSG on the road, I’m backing them to at least win a half in North London.

Arsenal will be without Thomas Partey through suspension, after he picked up a yellow card in his last match against Real Madrid. This, along with injuries, should leave Arsenal lighter than usual, and less aggressive, in midfield.

They’ll also likely be without Ben White, though he’s struggled to get back into the starting lineup consistently since returning from injury. Mikel Merino was unavailable for Arsenal’s most recent match, but should be available to face PSG. If he’s not, it could be a bigger blow to Arsenal, as they’ve done well when he’s played there, with him providing the two assists in their 2nd-leg win over Real Madrid.

PSG are already French Champions and suffered their first loss this weekend in Ligue 1. They were trying to go undefeated all season, but missed it with only a few matches remaining. They’ll look to bounce back and have this Champions League campaign as their sole focus for the remainder of the season.

In that match they lost at the weekend, they had 32 shots, 13 of which were on target. The opposing keeper played brilliantly and made 12 saves.

While Arsenal have had some time off this weekend, unlike PSG, I’m not convinced it will help them when facing a PSG team bouncing back from disappointment with a united focus.

Pick #2: Achraf Hakimi (PSG) 2+ Shots +225 (April 29, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

I’m sticking with the Arsenal/PSG match for my second Best Bet, looking at a player prop.

While +225 is longer than I typically go as far as odds, I can’t deny the value in this bet. If it makes you nervous, play a half unit on it instead.

Hakimi plays right back for PSG, a position that, historically, didn’t provide much in attack. In the modern game, full backs (right back and left back) are continuing to offer more moving forward in attack, and Hakimi is one of the best.

While he averages 1.46 shots per 90 in Ligue 1, he has kicked it in gear at the end of the season and has averaged 2.12 shots per 90 in the UCL. He had 2 in the 1st-leg against Aston Villa, then 3 in the 2nd-leg, one of which was a goal. In PSG’s loss to Nice at the weekend, their first Ligue 1 loss all season, he had 3 shots.

Without Partey in midfield, Arsenal may be exposed to some turnovers and shots near the top of the box, a spot from which Hakimi often seeks to capitalize, with half of his Ligue 1 and UCL shots coming from outside the box.

Pick #3: Hakan Calhanoglu (Inter Milan) 2+ Shots +120 (April 30, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):

For my last Best Bet, I’m taking a similar player prop in Inter’s Hakan Calhanoglu to have 2+ shots.

Calhanoglu has been a standout player for Inter’s midfield this season, notching 10 goals and 5 assists in all competitions this season.

He’s averaged 2.12 shots per 90 in Serie A and 2.49 per 90 in the UCL. His shots per 90 in the Coppa Italia is even higher, at 2.98.

Barcelona are a strong team that like possession, but their strength has lied in their attack and number of goals scored. They’re 4th in La Liga for clean sheets and were 14th for goals conceded in the UCL League Phase.

While Barcelona will look to have the majority of the possession, Calhanoglu and Barella will run the midfield when Inter have the ball and Calhanoglu will have license to get forward and take shots.

Season Record:

League Phase Best Bets: 12-12

Playoff Round Best Bets: 2-4

Round of 16 Best Bets: 4-2

Quarterfinals Best Bets: 5-1

Season Total: 23-19

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