Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The new Chanpions League format opened with 3 days of exciting matches!
Bayern Munich made history as the first team to score 9 goals in a single UCL match, Man City and Inter played a scoreless draw in a repeat of the 2022/23 final, and Brest got a win on their UCL debut.
We were off the mark for our Best Bets, going 0-3 to start the season, although we did well in the Bonus Bets at least. Celtic almost got the clean sheet but for a great strike, Arsenal drew 0-0, and Barcelona struggled after a red card ten minutes in. We weren’t far off from success, but that’s part of the beauty (and pain) of the Champions League.
There were 57 goals across the 18 matches… and were only just getting started!
Upcoming Matches:
This week, matches will be played in the traditional windows (12:45 p.m. EST and 3:00 EST) in Tuesday and Wednesday.
Big matches include PSG at Arsenal, Milan at Leverkusen, and Atletico Madrid at Benfica.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: RB Salzburg Moneyline -110 (Oct. 1, 2024; 12:45 p.m. EST):
For our first matchup we go to a match in the opening slate, RB Salzburg hosting Stade Brest.
This match, for me, is really about the home and away form of these clubs. The last time Salzburg lost at home was April 4th, picking up 8 wins and 4 draws in that span while playing at home.
Brest, on the other hand, haven’t won on the road since May 19, picking up 6 losses and 1 draw in that spell.
Brest now travel to Leipzig for another tough road game.
Further, RB has the least goals conceded in the Austrian Bundesliga and Brest are 3rd for goals conceded in Ligue 1.
Pick #2: Feyenoord Double Chance -125 (Oct. 2, 2024; 12:45 p.m. EST):
Neither of these clubs (Girona and Feyenoord) are on a solid run of form with Girona failing to win any of their last 5 and Feyenoord only winning 1 of their last 5.
Feyenoord, however, have only lost one of last 5 matches, their last Champions League match against Leverkusen, where they lost 0-4 but had more shots than Leverkusen and had 2 goals ruled out for offside. They’ll push struggling Girona, who are in their first Champions League campaign, and just need a draw for us to cash this bet, which is a fair result for both sides.
Girona look to be without Oriol Romeu And Daley Blind, losing key experience in big European matches, something debutants Girona could really utilize.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Liverpool and Real Madrid Moneylines -120 (Oct. 2, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For this final bet I’m backing two European giants to get the win in a parlay.
We’ll start with Liverpool at -600 against Bologna, who are back in the top European competition for the first time in 60 years. Liverpool have been off to a fantastic start to their season under their new coach Arne Slot, with 7 wins and 1 loss across all competitions. Bologna only have 1 win across all competitions, as well as only 1 loss and 5 draws.
I expect Bologna to play defensively against Liverpool and aim for a draw, but Liverpool will be too strong and should win comfortably.
The trickier match is Lille hosting Real Madrid. Madrid are -175 favorites. They are on the road and are coming off a 1-1 draw to Atletico Madrid at the weekend, where they lost their keeper, Courtois, to injury, although Andriy Lunin stepped up and played well last season.
Mbappe has been injured as well, although he seems fit to come back, although perhaps lacking match fitness.
These worries move Madrid closer to even odds, which I love to see because Madrid always seem to find a way in the Champions League.
Lille also are dealing with injuries, as well as a suspension for Angel Gomes after his red card last time out.
Although they just secured a win and a draw in their last two matches, scoring 6 goals, their previous 4 matches were losses, including losses at home to PSG and away to Sporting CP (other Champions League clubs).
Expect Real Madrid to win (maybe not so comfortably at first) and parlay it with an easy Liverpool win.
Bonus:
A few other bets I like this week are:
Arsenal Moneyline -135
RB Leipzig Moneyline +135
Bayern Munich Moneyline -135
Season Record:
Best Bets: 0-3
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