Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
Last matchweek brought us plenty of good storylines, with Bayern Munich getting a 1-0 win over PSG and bumping them into the relegation zone, Manchester City blowing a 3-goal lead to draw 3-3 with Feyenoord at home to continue their struggles, Atalanta continuing their fine form, and Liverpool bested Real Madrid, a relatively rare occurrence in that fixture.
As for our Best Bets, we had a nice sweep, going 3-0, winning our parlay, Barcelona to Win to Nil, and Dortmund Moneyline.
Upcoming Matches:
With only 3 matches to go in the League Phase, we’re at the point where some clubs may become desperate or let down their guard depending on their place in the league table and level of safety. With the seeding, however, every place in the table can make a difference, so I expect most clubs to give their all in every match.
Some big matches this week include Atalanta hosting Real Madrid in a rematch of the UEFA Super Cup, Leverkusen hosting Inter, Dortmund hosting Barça, and Juventus hosting Man City.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: 2-Leg Parlay: Liverpool Moneyline and PSG Moneyline -105 (Dec. 10, 2024; 12:45 p.m. and 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our first bet I’m looking at two road favorites on Tuesday, Liverpool and PSG.
Liverpool are first in the UCL table and have been resilient in the UCL and EPL this season, despite being without Alisson Becker in goal. They should have a pretty fit squad otherwise and may be set to have Frederico Chiesa back in the team.
Their opponents, Girona, are on a 4-game winless streak and sit 30th in the UCL table, sit 9th in La Liga, and are out of the Copa Del Rey. Balancing 3 competitions seems too much for them this season and I expect them to prioritize their league form.
For the second leg, I’m backing a PSG side that will be desperate for a win to help salvage their UCL season. To be honest, this may be tough, as PSG have not been great this year. They still sit atop Ligue 1, but failing to get out of the League Phase in the UCL would be a massive failure for a club with as much pedigree and money as PSG.
Their opponents, Red Bull Salzburg, are having an even worse season, sitting 32nd in the UCL and 5th in the Austrian Bundesliga, a league they’ve won 9 of the last 10 years (finishing 2nd last season). This is a club that definitely needs to prioritize its league form if they want to climb back to the top.
Pick #2: PSV Eindhoven Moneyline +105 (Dec. 10, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our next bet I’m backing a PSV Eindhoven team who sit atop the Eredivisie and can’t seem to stop scoring goals.
They’re on a 6-match win streak and have only lost 2 of their last 15 matches, losses on the road to Juventus in the UCL and to Ajax in the Dutch league.
They’ve got Ricardo Pepi, the American striker, who is technically second in the pecking order behind Luuk de Jong, but despite this is the club’s top scorer this season with 12 across all competitions.
They travel to Brest, newcomers to the UCL this season and a team I have been fading. They proved me wrong in the beginning, but we finally faded them successfully last time out. Since that match, they’ve won 1 and lost 1 in Ligue 1 and still are struggling to balance the demand of both competitions.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Same Game Parlay: Benfica Moneyline and Under 4.5 Goals -110 (Dec. 11, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our final bet, I’m taking a SGP with Benfica to win and there to be fewer than 4.5 goals.
Benfica sit 14th in the UCL tables currently in the playoff positions, but that could all change with one Matchweek given how tight the table is. Of their last 15 matches, they’ve won every match but for 2, their 2 losses in the UCL this season.
A big reason I like this bet, other than Benfica’s winning streak, is their opponents: Bologna.
Bologna qualified for the UCL last season following a great couple of Serie A campaigns under Thiago Motta, taking the club from a 13th place finish to a 9th and then 5th. Motta then departed for Juventus and Bologna find themselves struggling to repeat the same level of success.
They are doing okay in the Serie A, sitting in 8th, but they’re 33rd in the UCL table. More concerning, they’ve only scored 1 goal, the fewest in the UCL. They’ve only allowed 7 in the UCL, a relatively small amount compared to the other clubs in the UCL relegation zone.
I expect this one to be a relatively low-scoring affair, yet I expect Benfica to come out on top at home. If you’re feeling more confident on the under, parlay Benfica Moneyline and Under 3.5 Goals +140.
Bonus:
A few other bets I like this week are:
Celtic Moneyline +115
Bayern Munich to Win to Nil -130
Real Madrid Moneyline +145 (or Win Either Half -135)
Manchester City Moneyline +105
Tijani Reijnders to Score or Assist +150 (AC Milan)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 8-7
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