Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
It has been more than a month since we last had Champions League action, last year, in fact! With all the festive fixtures and domestic cup competitions in between, many of these clubs are in a different position than they were for Matchweek 6.
Real Madrid beat Atalanta 2-3 in a repeat of the UEFA Super Cup, Leverkusen beat Inter 1-0, PSG got a much needed win, Barcelona beat Dortmund 2-3, and Bayern cruised to a 1-5 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk.
As for our Best Bets, it was a relatively poor week, going 1-2 for Best Bets and doing poor with bonus bets, only winning Real Madrid.
I was bested by Brest once again, who beat PSV and continue to have an incredible run in the UCL. They’ve proven me wrong so many times this season I should start keeping a season record of “Best Bets” and “Brest Bets.”
Upcoming Matches:
We’re down to the wire in this new-look UCL League Phase, with 2 matches to go before the Playoff rounds begin.
A few clubs have already been mathematically eliminated, including RB Leipzig, Slovak Bratislava, and Young Boys. PSG find themselves in the elimination zone with a visit from Manchester City on deck this Wednesday.
Another exciting match should be Atletico Madrid hosting Bayer Leverkusen.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Atletico Madrid / Bayer Leverkusen Both Teams to Score -130 (Jan. 21, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet, I’m looking at a market I often overlook, the Both Teams To Score market.
Each of these teams have had strong defenses in their domestic leagues, particularly Atletico Madrid, however, these teams are also scoring plenty of goals.
Atletico have scored 6 goals and allowed 5 while at home in the UCL this season, including allowing goals from RB Leipzig, as well as Slovan Bratislava. While Leverkusen have yet to concede a goal in the UCL at home this season, they’ve scored 5 and conceded 5 in their 3 away matches in the UCL, though 4 of those were against Liverpool.
Both of these teams are in good goal-scoring form this season and I expect each to get on the scoresheet.
Pick #2: Borussia Dortmund Moneyline +120 (Jan. 21, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our next bet I’m backing a club that, admittedly, have let me down a bit this season, Borussia Dortmund.
While Dortmund haven’t been anything to write home about this season, sitting 10th in the Bundesliga, they’re still doing well in the UCL, sitting in 9th at the top of the Playoff positions. However, only 4 points separate 9th and 24th, so picking up points in the final two matches is still important.
The primary logic here is to fade Bologna, who are not mathematically out of the UCL yet, but with only 2 points, their chances are slim. However, they sit 7th in Serie A, tied on points with Fiorentina, who sit in 6th. They’re coming off a good win at Monza and a couple draws against Inter and Roma.
With their hopes of progressing in the UCL all but over, Bologna will need to prioritize the league and secure European football for next season.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Inter Milan Moneyline and Bayern Munich Moneyline -100 (Jan. 22, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our final bet, I’m taking 2 favorites to get the win away from home against two clubs who have struggled in the competition.
First is Feyenoord hosting Bayern Munich. Feyenoord sit in 4th in the Dutch Eredivisie under new coach Brian Priske. They’re 18th with 10 points in the UCL. They won’t have another game in between this match and their last UCL match against Lille. I imagine they’ll consider this match a tall order and hope to get a good result against Lille to see them through.
Bayern have won their last 5 in all competitions, outscoring their opponents 20-3 in that process.
The next match is Sparta Prague hosting Inter Milan.
Milan sometimes make me nervous for a moneyline because I get nervous about them scoring. I’m a big fan of Lautaro Martinez, but he can be a bit streaky for goals. He’s got 3 in his last 5, as well as getting plenty of help from Dumfries, Thuram, and Taremi.
Sparta Prague played their last league match over a month ago and have only played 2 friendlies in the meantime. Although they won them both, Inter have played 9 matches in that time (Serie A, Coppa Italia, and Supercoppa Italia) with a record of 7-1-1 in that run.
Bonus:
I also really like Barcelona Moneyline +130 this week.
Season Record:
Best Bets: 9-9
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