Welcome in to Champions League Best Bets, brought to you by Bettor In Green, where we recap the latest Champions League action and look ahead with my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
Recap:
The first ever UCL League Phase is complete! I think it’s fair to say many were skeptical of how the new format would operate, but from a fan perspective, I believe it was a huge success.
8 clubs have advanced automatically to the Round of 16: Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter, Atletico Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Lille, and Aston Villa.
We now look at spots 9-24, who will play a 2-legged Playoff match to earn a spot in the Round of 16.
In the final matchweek of the League Phase, we went 2-1, only missing on Liverpool to Win Either Half. That brings our season to an even 12-12 through the League Phase.
Upcoming Matches:
The Playoff Round doesn’t do a direct seed for matchup opponent, instead, there were two clubs any one club could have been drawn against. This lead to a rather boring fixture between Brest and PSG, an all Ligue 1 affair, but it did give us a tasty match between Manchester City and Real Madrid.
I’ll preface this article by saying 2-legged ties are usually not my favorite to bet, given the additional considerations and cautious play employed by some teams, however, there are still a few I like.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Real Madrid to Win Either Half +100 (Feb. 11, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my first Best Bet, I’m looking at the marquee matchup between Manchester City and Real Madrid. These sides are no strangers to one another, having faced each other in the quarter-finals or semi-finals of the UCL the last 3 seasons, with the winner of the tie going in to win the entire tournament.
Ultimately, I think Real Madrid will win over 2 legs. Man City have not managed the same form as prior seasons, currently sitting 5th in the Premier League and having recently been bartered by Arsenal, losing 5-1.
Of note, Manchester City have allowed their opponents to win at least one half in 4 of their last 5 matches, including their FA Cup match against Leyton Orient and their UCL match against Club Brugge.
Real Madrid travel to the Etihad with injuries in defense, losing Alaba, Rüdiger, and Vázquez earlier this month.
Mbappe is finding his scoring boots for Los Blancos, in La Liga at least, with 6 goals in his last 5 matches. They just had a disappointing draw at home to Atletico Madrid, with a debatable penalty awarded for Atletico’s lone goal and Real having 16 shots and 9 on target in the second half alone.
For what it’s worth, Real Madrid have only failed to win either half in 3 of their last 15 matches.
Want to play it safe with the 2 legs? Take Real Madrid to Advance -135 and sweat out both legs.
Pick #2: 2-Leg Parlay: PSG Moneyline and Bayern Munich Moneyline -115 (Feb. 11, 2025; 12:45 p.m. EST and Feb. 12, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our next bet I’m backing two big clubs who are heavy favorites, despite being on the road.
First is PSG away at Brest in the all Ligue 1 affair. First, it’s worth noting that Brest will actually have to play at a different stadium than their home stadium, as their main stadium does not meet UCL regulations.
PSG are in form at the right time, having not lost in 16 matches, going 12-0-4 in that time. Dembélé is scoring goals for fun and doesn’t look like slowing down.
These sides played one another on February 3 at Brest, with PSG winning 5-2, with a hat trick by Dembélé.
Next is Bayern Munich against Celtic. Harry Kane is in a hot streak for Bayern and has a history with Celtic keeper Kasper Schmeichel, having played together at Leicester and against one another many times for club and country.
Celtic’s UCL campaign hasn’t been anything to write home about thus far, with a relatively easy schedule and a few crucial draws. Their last UCL match was a 4-2 loss to Aston Villa.
I expect Bayern to be far too much for Celtic and get a comfortable win in the first leg.
Pick #3: Atalanta Moneyline +105 (Feb. 12, 2025; 12:45 p.m. EST):
For our final bet, I’m backing another favorite away from home in the first leg: Atalanta.
Atalanta had a strong League Phase, and were in the top 8 heading into the last matchweek, but a 2-2 draw with Barcelona put them just outside in spot 9.
They’ve crashed out of the Copa Italia since then perhaps struggling without injured Ademola Lookman, but then won 0-5 on the road to Hellas Verona in Seria A this past weekend, with 4 goals from Mateo Retegui.
Club Brugge, on the other hand, got the final spot in the Playoff rounds. They’ve managed some key draws in the UCL, but most recently lost to Man City 3-1. Since that match, they lost in the league to Antwerp, had a hard-fought draw to Belgian League leaders Genk to advance in the Belgian Cup, then lost to OH Leuven, who sit just above relegation, at the weekend.
If Atalanta keep the high-flying attack going, they should walk all over Club Brugge and get the better of the chances.
Bonus:
AC Milan Moneyline + 115. Feyenoord just sold their star striker, Santiago Giminez, to Milan, then just fired their coach yesterday.
Season Record:
League Phase Best Bets: 12-12
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