Welcome to Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new and old fans alike.
Recap:
With many clubs only having 3 matches left to play, we are quickly approaching the end of the season with many storylines yet to be wrapped up.
This weekend saw more action in the relegation fight, as Sheffield United are now officially to be relegated and Burnley secured an important point against Man United, bringing them within 2 points of safety and leaving a tight battle between Burnley, Luton Town, and Nottingham Forest.
Liverpool managed a disappointing draw to likely kill their title hopes, while Arsenal won in an exciting North London Derby and Man City beat Forest.
For our last article’s bets, we went 1-3 for the main plays, losing on Luton and Crystal Palace to win either half. We won Chelsea to win either half and went 2-2 Around the Grounds, winning Atletico Madrid and Inter Miami, losing both South American bets.
Upcoming Matches:
We have a long weekend of matches with Tottenham and Chelsea kicking off Thursday and the final game between Palace and Man U on Monday. Man City and Arsenal look to keep pushing one another for the title. With Spurs (and Chelsea) playing twice, there should be quite a few exciting games, with a marquee matchup between Liverpool and Spurs on Sunday.
Let’s get to some bets for the weekend:
Pick #1: Tottenham to Win Either Half (v Chelsea) -130 (May 2, 2024; 2:30 p.m. EST):
Chelsea and Spurs always makes for an entertaining London Derby. Earlier this season, Chelsea bested Tottenham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and the Chelsea coach had arguably his best managerial period with Tottenham between 2014-2019, so there is extra weight with that storyline.
Both squads go into this match with rough form, however, Tottenham have a bit more left to fight for than Chelsea. Tottenham are still fighting with Aston Villa for the final Champions League qualifying place, whereas Chelsea look like they’ll need a miracle to make it into any of the European qualifying places this season.
Tottenham will look to ensure Chelsea do not get the league double on them, having lost last time at home. Tottenham play heavy in attack and have a knack of coming from behind this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they concede early and go on to win the second half.
Feeling Confident?: As a Spurs fan, I’ll have them on the Moneyline as well at +200, although that line has now shifted to +180.
Pick #2: Newcastle Moneyline +100 (May 4, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
As we draw closer to the final matchweek, there is an added excitement as clubs start to throw everything they have at the final few matches to move up the standings and either avoid being relegated to the second tier, or end up in a position in the standings that qualifies for European competition the following season (the top 7 or so spots in the EPL).
Here, we have a battle between two sides each with something for which to play. Burnley seemed doomed for relegation a few weeks back but now is in the conversation to avoid relegation, although perhaps viewed as still quite the long-shot.
Newcastle have been streaky but seem to be in a scoring streak and have been in good form, with their recent losses coming from the “Big Six” clubs (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur), and against Crystal Palace, who have also been in fine form and who we had successfully predicted to win either half in that match.
Newcastle currently sit in 7th, 1 point behind Manchester United. For European Competition, there are 3 tiers, Champions League, Europa League, and Europa Conference League, with more prestige (and money) in the Champions League, less in Europa, and even less in Europa Conference. If Newcastle can leap frog United for 6th, that may be good enough to get into the Europa League instead of the Conference League. Qualification is complex, with the possibility of Man United qualifying by winning the FA Cup, but if they do not, the 6th place spot should secure Europa League competition for next season and Newcastle will seek to ensure it’s them.
Bottom Line: Newcastle are strong in attack and, while Burnley are fighting for survival in the EPL, Newcastle are also fighting to get into more elite competition next season.
Pick #3: Aston Villa Moneyline +135 (May 5, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
To be completely honest, I had originally planned on going with Aston Villa to win either half and then throwing out the moneyline as a bonus. In preparing for the upcoming matches, I locked in Villa to win either half at -150 and Villa to win at +150. In two days, that line has now shifted to -170 and +135, respectively.
I try to keep many of my article plays relatively close to even odds, so I’m doubling down on the hunch and going with the moneyline, not just to win either half. I think the line has mostly settled, but it may continue to move a bit so it may be worth locking in sooner rather than later.
Aston Villa, like Newcastle, are in good form and are fighting for European places, with Aston Villa currently occupying the 4th and final Champions League place. They’re 7 points ahead of Tottenham, although they’ve played two more games than Tottenham, so that could theoretically only place them 1 ahead if Spurs win their two games-in-hand.
Brighton, Villa’s opponents, have looked dreadful as of late, failing to win any of their last 6 matches, their last EPL win coming on March 10 to relegation-threatened Nottingham Forest.
Brighton are comfortably mid-table and are likely not to get much more of anything out of their season. Thus, I’m backing Villa to get the result they need in order to stay in 4th and secure Champions League football next season.
Play it Safe: If you’re nervous about the outright win, take Villa to Win Either Half -170 or Newcastle Draw No Bet -135.
Around the Grounds:
Atletico Madrid Moneyline +105 (Spain; La Liga)
Barcelona Moneyline +135 (Spain; La Liga)
Toronto Moneyline +120 (USA; MLS)
LAFC Moneyline +120 (USA; MLS)
Colo Colo Moneyline -120 (Chile; Primera League)
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