Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
After an offseason filled with excellent international tournaments (Euros, Copa America, Olympics) the club soccer season is upon us, with the EPL kicking off Friday, August 16 at 3:00 p.m. EST.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green article series, as well as some futures for the EPL season, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Upcoming Matches:
The first match of the EPL 2024/25 season gets underway this Friday as Manchester United host Fulham at 3:00 p.m. EST. Marquee matchups include newly-promoted Ipswich Town with a tough test hosting Liverpool, a new-look West Ham host Aston Villa, Chelsea host Champions Manchester City, and Leicester host Tottenham to round out the weekend on Monday.
The first week can be tough to predict while clubs are still figuring out their best starting team and with the transfer window still open. Preseason gives us a little insight but isn’t perfect. This weekend, I’ll be backing some teams on the road to get a better betting value, relying on the overall quality and stature of the away team to get the job done.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -115 (Aug. 18, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
If you read my EPL preview and futures article, you’ll know I’m quite optimistic about Crystal Palace this season. They were flying at the end of last season after appointing new manager Oliver Glasner, bringing them from 16th to 10th with an incredible run of games.
Palace lost a key player in Michael Olise and may yet lose another in Marc Guehi, however, they’ve done good business to bring in reinforcements (Kamada from Lazio; Sarr from Marseille) and look set to keep an important asset in Adam Wharton.
Brentford, their opposition this weekend, have scored goals in preseason, but have also leaked quite a few goals. They’ll be tough but that’s why I’m only backing Palace to win either half, giving them two shots to win us this bet.
Feeling lucky? Try Palace to Win outright at +190.
Pick #2: Manchester City Moneyline -120 (Aug. 18, 2024; 11:30 a.m. EST):
One of the most exciting matchups of the week is Chelsea hosting Man City.
Chelsea have not looked particularly cohesive in preseason, although I don’t put too much weight into preseason matches.
Chelsea have a new coach in Enzo Maresca, who managed Leicester to a winning season in the second tier last season. Maresca is a tactical and strategic manager, much like Man City’s Pep Guardiola, having been brought in to manage the Man City Elite Development Squad previously in his career.
Man City have Haaland clicking in usual fashion, but may be a little shorter at depth with the loss of Julian Alvarez, although that shouldn't impact the first match. There is news that Rodri won't play, which isn't great, but City still have the depth in midfield to cover.
This should be a good tactical matchup, as both coaches tend to employ similar strategies, both looking to dominating possession . If Man City can control possession like they tend to do, Maresca will likely be forced to revert back to a 4-4-2 block rather than a more attacking formation he prefers. I don’t trust the Chelsea defense and, although they won’t make it easy, I think City put 2 or more goals past them this weekend.
Another fun story is Cole Palmer, former Man City player who is now excelling at Chelsea, trying to stick it to his former club with a solid performance, though I still don’t see it being enough.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Liverpool Moneyline and Tottenham Moneyline +114 (Aug. 18, 2024; 7:30 a.m. EST and Aug. 19, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my final bet, I’m going with a parlay I take frequently, as I am a Tottenham fan and have a brother-in-law who is a Liverpool fan.
Other than heart, there are other reasons I love this bet. Both are “Top 6” clubs playing against newly promoted sides, albeit away.
Liverpool go into their game against Ipswich Town as heavy favorites, impressing in preseason under new coach Arne Slot. Diogo Jota is looking great and I expect Liverpool attack to be fiery out of the gate.
Tottenham have also impressed in preseason, although preseason doesn’t mean much, but more importantly have brought in a solid striker in Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth. Their opponent, Leicester, have a new coach in Steve Cooper and have not impressed in preseason, failing to score a goal in their last 3 games. Vardy may be fit and change that, but expect Tottenham to load up on shots and break them down.
Bonus:
Looking for something with a little longer odds or a player prop? Check out these props, although I’d recommend only dabbling at .25 or .5 units.
Liverpool Clean Sheet +135
Jota to Score and Liverpool to Win +120
Tottenham and Manchester United to Win +157
Solanke to Score and Tottenham to Win +175
Across the Globe:
Here are some of my favorite betting lines outside of the EPL this weekend.
Club America Moneyline -135 (North America; Leagues Cup)
Barcelona Moneyline -145 (Spain; La Liga)
Galatasaray Moneyline -145 (Turkey; Super Lig)
Midtjylland Moneyline -120 (Denmark; Superligaen)
AC Milan Clean Sheet +130 (Italy; Serie A)
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