Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Matchweek 9 was peak EPL in terms of drama, full of late goals and heartbreak for fans and for bettors with some big matches ending in draws.
Bournemouth spoiled Aston Villa’s party with a goal in the final minute of stoppage time; Wolves clawed back 2 late goals in the final minutes of the match to draw 2-2 with Brighton; Everton scored in the closing minutes against Fulham to draw 1-1; and Brentford scored late in stoppage time to beat Ipswich Town 4-3 in a wild back-and-forth match that looked set to end in a draw until the dramatic winning goal.
On Sunday, Crystal Palace finally won a match (right after we put them on the “Do Not Bet” List, and against the club I support no less!) and Liverpool came back from a goal down to draw 2-2 with Arsenal.
Our Best Bets went 1-2, losing out on Aston Villa Moneyline and Tottenham Moneyline, winning our Chelsea Moneyline bet.
Around the Grounds was an even 3-3, also with late drama, as Inter let a 2-goal lead slip in a 4-4 draw to Juventus.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 10 brings 7 matches across 3 windows on Saturday, with two matches Sunday, including the marquee matchup between Manchester United and Chelsea.
We also have a game Monday afternoon, with Fulham hosting Brentford.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Arsenal Moneyline +100 (Nov. 2, 2024; 8:30 a.m. EST):
For the first bet, we’re backing the early kickoff and taking Arsenal away from home on the moneyline. Arsenal had a tough draw to Liverpool in their last EPL match, but then got an easy win in the Carabao Cup with a rotated squad.
The big issue for Arsenal is they travel north to Newcastle for this match before traveling to Milan to face Inter in the Champions League, while still being without key assets.
Newcastle, on the other hand, is coming off playing Chelsea twice in a row, losing in the EPL and then winning in the Carabao Cup. They seemed to prioritized the idea of winning a trophy with the Carabao Cup more than Chelsea, who completely rotated their squad, while Newcastle played quite a few of the same players for both matches.
It’s a tough spot for Arsenal, but Newcastle are focusing on winning a trophy, even one of the more insignificant ones, while Arsenal are pushing to win the biggest trophies. Any more points dropped and the title challenge may begin to look less likely, so I expect Arsenal to get a win at even odds.
Pick #2: Nottingham Forest / West Ham Under 2.5 Goals -115 (Nov. 2, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Here, I'm going with something a little different than my usual, going with Under 2.5 Goals between Nottingham Forest and West Ham.
Although Nottingham is doing great and West Ham is trending up, I still see this being a low-scoring affair.
Nottingham are 2nd in goals conceded (only behind Liverpool) and each side is averaging less than 1.5 goals per match, with Nottingham averaging 1.2 goals and West Ham averaging 1.4 goals per match.
These clubs are both coming off EPL wins and have had a full week to prepare. I think both sides will be ready for the attacking threat of the other and see this being a battle of breaking down the other side’s defense, which may prove difficult.
Pick #3: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline -105 (Nov. 3, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
I’m going back to betting a Tottenham team that looked like they lacked fight against Crystal Palace in their last EPL match, but they showed a much higher intensity in their win against Manchester City in the Carabao Cup, giving City their first loss of the season.
Aston Villa had their victory spoiled by Bournemouth in their last EPL match, then lost to Crystal Palace at home in the Carabao Cup. They now face a gauntlet away from home, traveling to Spurs, then Club Brugge in the Champions League, then to Anfield to take on Liverpool, a notoriously difficult venue.
They top the table in the Champions League and may look to prioritize the midweek match. Tottenham may look to do the same with a difficult match at Galatasaray (Türkiye) on deck, but I’ll back the home side to take down Villa.
Across the Globe:
Randers FC Moneyline +100 (Denmark; Superligaen)
Red Bull Bragantino Moneyline -120 (Brazil; Serie A)
Fiorentina Moneyline +130 (Italy; Serie A)
KAA Gent Moneyline -130 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
FC Midtjylland Moneyline +130 (Denmark; Superligaen)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 14-12
Across the Globe: 24-25
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