Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Are Liverpool one of the best squads in Europe? Are Arsenal actually title contenders? Are Nottingham Forest going to be competing for the European Competition places? Will City get it together this year without Rodri?
The drama of these past few weeks have led to a really interesting EPL table with fascinating storylines. This weekend, Arsenal and City both lost, while Liverpool came from a goal down to win 2-1, taking a 2 point lead over Man City in the table.
The drama continued on Monday, as Fulham came back from a goal down to win in one of the latest comebacks in EPL history.
Our bets were sub-par, going 1-2, losing on Arsenal Moneyline and on the under in the Nottingham Forest /West Ham match, winning Tottenham Moneyline.
Across the Globe we struggled with a couple nil-nil draws, going 2-3 on the weekend.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 11 sees two London Derbies, although not historically significant ones, as Crystal Palace host Fulham and Chelsea host Arsenal.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: West Ham Moneyline +120 (Nov. 9, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
West Ham have been tough to bet on this year, as they haven’t lived up to the hype that surrounded them during the summer transfer window.
However, they’ve won their last two games at home, scoring 6 goals total in those matches. They still need a lot of work, but getting consistent wins at home will help keep the fans happy amongst a turbulent season. This result may be a factor in whether West Ham fire their coach, Julen Lopetegui.
West Ham will be without Alvarez and Kudus but look set to have Jarrod Bowen back.
Everton, their opponents, sit 2 spots lower than West Ham in the table, but would leapfrog them if they win. A few stats that stick out for Everton are that they are last in the league for possession of the ball and accurate passes, as well as 17th in expected goals.
I expect a hard fought game but for West Ham to win at home for their manager.
Pick #2: Nottingham Forest To Win Either Half -125 (Nov. 10, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
Nottingham Forest have been on fire this season.
Nottingham sit 3rd in the table and are 2nd in goals conceded (only behind Liverpool) and are 4th in the league for shots. Their attack has been strong and their defense has been resilient in some big moments. Chris Wood has been incredible this season, scoring 8 goals in the EPL, putting him second in the golden boot race behind Erling Haaland.
Newcastle are coming off two impressive home wins (against Chelsea and Arsenal) but have been abysmal away from home. Their only road win this season came at Wolves, currently the team at the bottom of the table.
I expect Nottingham Forest to get another impressive victory and will also bet Nottingham Forest Moneyline +165, I’ll give out to win either half as the Best Bet.
Pick #3: Dejan Kulusevski (Tottenham Hotspur) To Score or Assist -125 (Nov. 10, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
I don’t often bet player props, but when I do, I often will take a player to score or assist. Here, I’m backing a player from a club I know well, Dejan Kulusevski from Tottenham.
Deki, as he’s called, has a goal contribution in 3 of his last 5 EPL matches, as well as got both assists in the 2-1 Carabao Cup win against Man City. He’s been a spark, along with Brennan Johnson, down the right side of Spurs’ attack, which is first in goals per match and second in possession and shots per match.
He came on at halftime on Tottenham’s recent Europa League match, so he should be set to start this match.
Ipswich, their opponents, are 19th (of 20) for average goals conceded, things I love to see for a score or assist player prop.
Across the Globe:
Borussia Dortmund Moneyline +100 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Corinthians To Win Either Half -125 (Brazil; Serie A)
Orlando City SC Moneyline -115 (USA; MLS)
Atletico Madrid Moneyline +130 (Spain; La Liga)
Lazio Moneyline -125 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 15-14
Across the Globe: 26-28
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