Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
It’s early, but Liverpool are the title favorites at this stage of the season, now 9 points in front of Arsenal and 11 in front of Manchester City. Liverpool hosted City this weekend and, though they had home field advantage, they looked the stronger team.
Our Best Bets went 1-2, winning Chelsea and losing our other two.
Across the Globe we went 3-2, winning Corinthians, Young Boys, and Lyon.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 14 is a quick turnaround, kicking off Tuesday, December 3, 2024 at 2:30 p.m. EST. There are two matches Tuesday, six Wednesday, then two on Thursday.
The marquee match comes on Wednesday at 3:15 p.m. EST with Arsenal, who look back to their best, hosting new-look Manchester United.
With the quick turnaround, I expect to see rotated squads, which could lead to unpredictable results or high volatility.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Liverpool Moneyline -130 (Dec. 4, 2024; 2:30 p.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet I’m continuing to back the current leaders, Liverpool, as they travel to Newcastle.
Liverpool aren’t seeming to miss a step, winning 14 of their last 15 matches (drawing the over), while Newcastle are coming off two disappointing results, a loss at home to West Ham and then a draw at Crystal Palace, who grabbed a late goal and spoiled the win for Newcastle.
Liverpool may look to rotate some of the squad, but the way Slot has Liverpool playing, they can afford to rotate a player or two in midfield and up top, though their defense will be tight with Konate out.
Given their current form, I’ll happily take Liverpool at the -130 line.
Pick #2: Wolverhampton Wanderers to Win Either Half +115 (Dec. 4, 2024; 2:30 p.m. EST):
Last weekend, I unsuccessfully backed Wolves against Bournemouth, only for Bournemouth to win and convert 3 penalties and win 4-2. I’m ready to be hurt again and am going right back to Wolves as they travel to Everton.
Wolves are 6th in the league for average goals per match, despite being 16th in expected goals and last in average goals conceded match. Their tally of 22 goals for is tied for 6th in the league with Man City and Brighton, but their 32 goals against are the most conceded in the league, the next closest being Leicester with 27 conceded.
In other words, Wolves are scoring at a high rate and conceding at a high rate.
Everton, their opposition, have not won in 5 matches and have not scored a goal in each of their last 4 matches. Even worse, they have a Merseyside Derby up next against Liverpool, before playing Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, and Nottingham to end the year. It’s about to be a tough run for Everton, who are already in a bad run of form.
I don’t fully trust Wolves to win this one, although I’ll likely dabble on the moneyline, I do expect them to win either half if Everton continue their scoring struggles.
Pick #3: Tottenham Moneyline +145 (Dec. 5, 2024; 3:15 p.m. EST):
Spurs have been a rollercoaster of form this season, most recently having a loss to Ipswich, then a 0-4 thrashing of Man City, then a disappointing draw to Fulham. Ange Postecoglou, the coach, emphasizes an attacking team with lots of shots, sometimes leaving them exposed at the back, leading to this up and down form.
They now travel to Bournemouth, who are coming off a 2-4 win at Wolves. They had the help of 3 penalties in that match and may not be so lucky. Spurs will have a backup keeper, but one who has EPL experience and good intelligence.
Bournemouth are 17th for possession while Spurs are 2nd. Spurs also are more comfortable with the midweek matches and should be able to field a strong team after giving some rest to Solanke and Kulusevski this weekend. Look for Spurs to dominate and get another convincing win after their disappointing draw to Fulham.
Across the Globe:
Corinthians Moneyline -145 (Brazil; Serie A)
Real Madrid Moneyline +130 (Spain; La Liga)
Millonarios Moneyline -140 (Columbia; Primera A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 18-20
Across the Globe: 35-34
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