Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
It was a bad week for home fans this weekend, as Aston Villa was the only home side to manage a win against Manchester City. The rest either lost or only managed a draw.
The late games on each day brought plenty of goals, as Arsenal beat Crystal Palace 1-5 on the road to cap Saturday’s action and Liverpool beat Tottenham 3-6 on the road to close out the weekend.
Our Best Bets again went 1-2, a slump we cannot seem to break at the moment, only winning our BTTS bet. That’s on me for continuing to back Man City at my peril.
Across the Globe we went 2-3, only hitting our Serie A bets this weekend. It was a rough weekend but I’m hoping for some Christmas luck to bounce back!
Upcoming Matches:
It’s Boxing Day! While we don’t celebrate in the States, the lads across the pond celebrate this holiday by, presumably, watching Premier League action all day. We’ll have 8 matches on the 26th with the final 2 coming Friday, December 27.
Let’s get into the Christmas Cheer and get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Tottenham Hotspur to Win Either Half -120 (Dec. 26, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For my first Best Bet, I’m going to a familiar team in the club I support, Tottenham Hotspur.
Their opponents, Nottingham Forest, are on an incredible run this season, sitting 4th in the table. Their strength lies in their defensive qualities, as they average the 3rd fewest goals conceded in the league and are tied for 2nd in clean sheets.
However, they are 18th for expected goals conceded and are 2nd in both clearances and interceptions. They don’t like possessing the ball and take on pressure, waiting to intercept and counter attack.
Spurs are certainly susceptible to the counter with their high-pressing style of play, but that often comes with chances and pressure for long spells at the attacking end.
Forest are scoring like a mid-table team, relying on their defensive resilience to win games. While a tactic that’s working well for them, Spurs are arguably the strongest attack in the league and should find a way through, so long as they can keep it tidy in defense themselves and watch the counter-attack.
Pick #2: Alexander Isak (Newcastle) to Score or Assist -135 (Dec. 26, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
I don’t often bet Player Props, but Isak’s scoring rate has become hard to ignore. I picked him up in Fantasy Premier League back in week 15 and he has not let me down.
He’s scored a goal in each of his last 4 matches, scoring a hat trick in Newcastle’s 0-4 win on the road to Ipswich this past weekend.
Aston Villa have a great goalkeeper in Emi Martinez, though their defensive stats haven’t been anything to write home about this season.
This will be a tough battle, and I hesitate to pick a side, but I am backing the in-form man in Alexander Isak.
Pick #3: Liverpool Clean Sheet -125 (Dec. 26, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last bet, I’m backing the leaders against 17th-place Leicester City.
Leicester are still figuring things out under new coach Ruud van Nistelrooy. While his first two games were decent, they’ve now lost their last two matches (Newcastle Away then Wolves at Home) without scoring a goal, conceding 7 across those two games.
They now take on the leaders, Liverpool, who also lead the league in clean sheets with 7. Their star goalkeeper is back fit and has played a few games, while the rest of the squad should be healthy.
Both clubs play again Sunday, though Leicester should have the tougher matchup, hosting Manchester City.
Holding a clean sheet for 90 minutes can be tricky, but this Liverpool side will be on the front foot most of the game and should be a comfortable win.
You could take Liverpool to Win to Nil, though the odds are only marginally better at -120. While it should hit, I’ll take the safer and more solid odds of just a clean sheet.
Across the Globe:
Gent to Win Either Half +105 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 21-29
Across the Globe: 43-44
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