Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
It was quite a wild Boxing Day, with some clubs getting what they wanted for Christmas, like Fulham, who beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge for the first time in 45 years thanks to some late magic, and Wolves, who beat Manchester United and moved out of the relegation zone, marking a good start to the Vitor Pereira era at Wolves.
Some fans were not quite so happy. Manchester City’s terrible form continues, drawing with Everton, Spurs lost to Forest and stay in the bottom half, and Manchester United had their lowest table position on Christmas (13th) since Sir Alex Feguson’s first season in charge back in 1986.
I also didn’t get what I wanted, having another relatively miserable matchweek of bets. My Best Bets again went 1-2, only winning on Isak to Score or Assist, losing on Spurs to Win Either Half and Liverpool Clean Sheet.
There wasn’t much action Across the Globe over Christmas, but my one bet (Gent to Win Either Half) was unsuccessful.
Upcoming Matches:
We’ve only had a few days of rest from the Boxing Day fixtures before jumping right back into EPL. Man City again gets the early kickoff to open the weekend, while Brentford and Arsenal will close the weekend on New Year’s Day in a London Derby, kicking off at 12:30 EST.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline -150 (Dec. 29, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Tottenham have been a team of up-and-down form all season. They are capable of beating the best on any given day, yet have been susceptible to conceding early goals or not closing out games.
Wolves have the “new manager bump,” and they’ve had good results since Vitor Pereira came in, but that boost will only last so long.
Had this match been played at the start of the season, the odds for Spurs would be drastically shorter than -150, and I think the form over the last two matches, along with some injuries in defense for Spurs, mean we get the better line on a team that, on paper, should have the upper-hand.
The worrying thing is that Wolves have held two clean sheets in the past two matches, though I expect the press and attack of Spurs will end that streak.
-150 is right on the edge of how short I like to go for my article bets, but I just couldn’t pass up this line on the stronger Tottenham team, at home, when they are due for another win to continue this rollercoaster ride.
Feeling bold? Parlay Spurs Moneyline and Liverpool Moneyline +133 for a better payout.
Pick #2: SGP: Nottingham Forest Double Chance / Under 3.5 Goals -110 (Dec. 29, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
This next Best Bet gets a little more complex, opting for a Same Game Parlay of Nottingham Forest to Win or Draw (Double Chance) and Under 3.5 Total Goals.
Nottingham Forest have been incredibly impressive this season, sitting in 4th place, rather than near the relegation zone as they’ve been in previous years around Christmas.
Forest are 19th of 20 in the league for average possession and rely on the counter attack. Their coach is defensive-minded, and it shows, as Forest have conceded the 3rd fewest goals this season, only behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
Their opponents, Everton, also play under a defensive-minded coach in Sean Dyche. They are third in the league for clean sheets, yet are second to last for average goals and are last in average possession.
This will be a battle of the two sides who don’t like to possess the ball and who have been defensively resilient nonetheless. I worry about Forest’s ability to win outright away at Everton, but I expect a tough defensive battle and a low-scoring affair.
Pick #3: Aston Villa Moneyline -105 (Dec. 30, 2024; 2:45 p.m. EST):
For my last bet, I’m trusting Unai Emery to get his Aston Villa team back in the win column.
In their last match against Newcastle, Jhon Duran got a straight red card in the 32nd minute, leaving Villa short-handed for most of the match. He’ll also miss this upcoming match against Brighton.
I’ve loved Jhon Duran this season and he’s given Emery a tough choice for his starting striker between Ollie Watkins and Duran. Watkins was the starter at the beginning of the season, but hasn’t started in the Premier League since early December. With Duran suspended, Watkins will now have the opportunity to prove himself again.
I expect Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins to be at their best to lift the team back to a home win after their poor game at Newcastle.
Brighton, their opponents, have’s won in 6 matches, losing 2 and drawing 4.
Across the Globe:
AC Milan Moneyline +120 (Italy; Serie A)
Benfica to Win Either Half -130 (Portugal; Primeira Liga )
Melbourne City FC Moneyline +130 (Australia; A-League)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 22-31
Across the Globe: 43-45
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