Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content in a way that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Opening weekend is in the books!
New signing Zirkzee saves the day for Manchester United, Liverpool struggle in the first half and turn it on in the second, Man City look like the perennial champions as they cruise past Chelsea only making one substitution, Brighton look bright away from home, Villa look solid, and Spurs look Spursy as they draw 1-1 with Leicester despite dominating many aspects of the match.
Speaking of Spurs, their 1-1 draw was not good for our betting recap and we were a Dominic Solanke goal away from having a pretty great weekend. If you missed our bets from last time, you can find them here.
Our main bets were 1-2 (Winning Man City; Losing Crystal Palace and our Spurs Liverpool parlay) and Across the Grounds we were 3-2. Our bonus bets hit for Liverpool but not for Spurs.
Other than the Milan clean sheet, we were close with each of our bets. Crystal Palace almost went up first, but a poor refereeing decision meant the goal didn’t count, then got the first goal in the second half, only to concede one. Had Tottenham won, our parlay would have hit and the bonuses would have all hit if Solanke had scored in a winner. ATG, we lost Club America in a Leagues Cup upset and Milan was never close, but won our other 3 bets.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 2 again begins with Manchester United, this time playing on Saturday all the way on the southern coast at Brighton. Crystal Palace host West Ham, Fulham host Leicester, Spurs host Everton, and the marquee matchup on Saturday is Aston Villa hosting Arsenal.
Sunday sees Bournemouth host Newcastle, Wolves host Chelsea, and Liverpool host Brentford to round out the weekend.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Arsenal Moneyline -125 (Aug. 24, 2024; 12:30 p.m. EST):
This matchup is about revenge. Last time these teams played, Villa got 2 late goals to win 0-2. Arsenal won every EPL match thereafter but were still short of Man City for the title. They cost Arsenal the title and, if Arsenal want to prove they’re different this year, they’ll come to Villa Park with a vengeance.
I'm seeing chatter about how Villa won both matches against Arsenal last year, so they can use similar tactics this time to win.
I’m going with Vegas and picking Arsenal despite the fact they are playing away from home and against a Villa team that looked solid in week 1. Arsenal looked good against Wolves with 53% possession and 18 shots, 12 of which were inside the box.
This match is being touted as possibly title-deciding and Arsenal will look to learn from their mistakes and treat every match as a must-win if they hope to win the title this season.
Pick #2: Crystal Palace Moneyline +120 (Aug. 24, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For this bet we’re getting right back on the horse with Crystal Palace, this time comfortably at home to a West Ham side projected to be good this season but still seem to be fitting the pieces together.
Crystal Palace lost their opener away to Brentford but still looked sharp, opting for a similar formation to their success from last season, just with Kamada instead of Olise. CP had 54% possession and would push ahead with 5 attackers when in possession.
Palace just lost defender Andersen to Fulham, which likely means star defender Marc Guehi is set to stay, which may ultimately be a long-term success for CP.
Expecting a different playing style from West Ham, I was relatively disappointed in their first match against Aston Villa. They seemed to enjoy their best chances on the counter-attack, despite having the majority of possession. Most of their new signings did not start, so I think they’ll look different as they start to piece things together.
It will be a tough match for them but I like this line for CP to win their home opener.
Pick #3: Fulham Moneyline -125 (Aug. 24, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Our next Best Bet, like Palace, is another team that looked good in a road loss last week and now will play their home opener.
Fulham had good spells against Man United with 10 shots, 5 of which were from Muniz or Traoré. Now they play at home to Leicester, who managed a 1-1 draw with Spurs despite having 30% possession.
Fulham lost American defender Tim Ream but just acquired a solid defender in Joachim Andersen from Crystal Palace. He may not get the start but I still expect Fulham to get the win at home.
Looking for a player prop? I like Rodrigo Muniz Anytime Goalscorer at +105.
Bonus Bets:
Looking for something to bet on Sunday? I like Chelsea to Win at Wolves -130. Many pundits are criticizing Chelsea, questioning the strategy since they have so many players in the squad and struggled to find identity against Man City.
However, Chelsea implemented the plan of manager Maresca, aiming to attack with 5 when in possession but then defend with 4 in a high press out of possession. It didn’t work against Man City, one of the best attack-from-the-back teams around, but they seemed to follow the plan. Pundits/commentators say they have no idea what Chelsea is doing, but there seems to be a tactical plan that I anticipate will work better against Wolves than against City.
Chelsea struggled in the first half and had fewer shots, but beat Servette (Swiss club) 2-0 at home in the first leg of a Conference League Qualification match on Thursday.
Across the Globe:
NYCFC Moneyline -135 (USA; MLS)
LAFC to Lift the Trophy +110 or LAFC to Win Either Half -115 (North America; CONCACAF Leagues Cup)
AIK Solna Moneyline -135 (Sweden; Allsvenskan)
AC Milan Moneyline -140 (Italy; Serie A)
Atalanta Moneyline +140 (Italy; Serie A)
Fenerbahçe Moneyline -160 (Türkiye; Süper Lig)
Comments