Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
The coaching carousel continues in the EPL, as West Ham decided to replace their manager, Julen Lopetegui following their 4-1 loss to Manchester City, appointing Graham Potter as the new manager.
Everton also fired manager Sean Dyche following their 1-0 loss to Bournemouth and their 3-8-8 start to the season, where they’ve scored the second fewest goals in the league. Everton appointed David Moyes, a former long-time and well-respected manager of Everton.
In other news, we had quite a few draws this week, as Crystal Palace tied Chelsea, Brighton tied Arsenal, Fulham tied Ipswich, and Liverpool tied Manchester United.
We finally got back to a winning week, going 2-1 for Best Bets and 2-2 Across the Globe. We won a tasty Brentford Moneyline +125 bet with a comfortable 0-5 thrashing at Southampton, as well as a +130 on Nottingham Forest.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 21 comes during the middle of the week, thanks to the FA Cup matches that were taking place this past weekend. We have 4 matches on Tuesday, 4 on Wednesday, and 2 on Thursday.
Notably, we have what should be a tough battle on Tuesday with Nottingham Forest hosting Liverpool, while the match of the week comes Wednesday afternoon, as Arsenal host Tottenham in a North London Derby, often one of the most exciting matchups of the year.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: SGP: Liverpool Moneyline and Under 4.5 Goals +105 (Jan 14, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our first Best Bet, I’m drawn to this intriguing match between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool.
While both of these clubs have scored many goals this season, the critical success for these clubs this season has come from their ability to defend. Nottingham lead the league in clean sheets (9) with Liverpool in second (8). They’re each averaging only 1 goal conceded per match in the EPL, placing them tied for 2nd behind Arsenal.
In their earlier meeting this season, Forest handed Liverpool their only loss, a 0-1 defeat at home. Liverpool will not want to allow Forest to get the season double on them, so I anticipate a moment or two of quality to unlock the Forest defense, in what otherwise should be an entertaining match, even if it ends up low-scoring.
I’m also dabbling on Liverpool Clean Sheet +150 and Liverpool to Win to Nil +180.
Pick #2: West Ham United to Win Either Half -105 (Jan. 14, 2025; 2:30 p.m. EST):
West Ham have not had the start they had hoped for under Julen Lopetegui, so the club recently sacked him and brought in former Chelsea and Brighton manager, Graham Potter.
His first game in charge (in the FA Cup) seemed off to a good start, getting an early goal and a lead at halftime, only to concede two in the second half to Aston Villa.
While he never thrilled me at Chelsea, his time at Brighton was solid and consistent.
West Ham have injuries to strikers Füllkrug, Antonio, and Bowen, so Potter will have to rely on 32-year-old Danny Ings to lead the line, or perhaps deploy Mohammed Kudus in a central roll rather than on the wing.
While the injury concerns worry me, I am anticipating a bit of a “new-manager bump” and expect the players to rally around the change in system, especially when short-handed.
While I don’t know that they’ll have what it takes to beat Fulham, who have had a knack for late comebacks, so I’m only backing West Ham to Win Either Half.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Newcastle United Moneyline and Manchester United Moneyline -130 (Jan. 15, 2025; 2:30 p.m. EST and Jan. 16, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my last bet, I’m parlaying 2 favorites to get the win at home against two clubs in the bottom 5.
First is Wednesday’s match between Newcastle and Wolves. Newcastle have been flying high, thanks to their 7 clean sheets and 13 goals from Alexander Isak. They’ve won their last 8 games and now face a Wolves side they already beat once earlier this season.
While Wolves have shown signs of improvement since Vitor Pereira took over last month, though now look like they may lose Mario Lemina this month on a transfer. While I expect Wolves to continue improving, it won’t be without some growing pains.
Second is Manchester United hosting bottom-of-the-table Southampton.
While Manchester United have not won a match in regulation in 6 matches, the hype around their supporters and the club would suggest the opposite, thanks to their two recent matches against Liverpool and Arsenal.
Their last EPL match was a 2-2 draw on the road against Liverpool and, while they didn’t play particularly great, they got a good result against the league-leaders. Then they went to penalties against Arsenal in the FA Cup, clinging to the match after a red card brought them down to 10 men.
While neither look great on paper, the optimism from these two results is immense. Their match against Southampton is the perfect opportunity to keep the momentum going and move back up the table.
Across the Globe:
Preston North End Moneyline +105 (England; FA Cup)
AC Milan Moneyline -120 (Italy; Serie A)
OGC Nice Moneyline +110 (France; Coupe de France)
Lorient Moneyline -120 (France; Coupe de France)
Atletico Madrid Moneyline -145 (Spain; Copa del Rey)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 25-34
Across the Globe: 45-50
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