Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Last week, we saw Bournemouth beat Newcastle, thanks to a hat trick from Kluivert, to end Newcastle’s 9-match winning streak across all competitions.
Liverpool continue winning ways thanks to some late goals from Darwin Núñez, while Arsenal let a 2-goal lead slip, then had a late winning goal ruled out.
The blue side of Manchester was happy, as Manchester City cruised to a 0-6 win on the road at Ipswich Town. The Red Devils were not as happy, as Manchester United lost 1-3 at home to Brighton, prompting some scathing remarks from their manager at a following press-conference.
For our Best Bets, we went 2-1, winning on Fulham and on our Parlay with City and Chelsea. I’m kicking myself at the Tottenham loss, as I almost went with “To Win Either Half,” which did hit. Their striker, Solanke, had a knee injury in between my posting of the article and the match, causing the odds to jump significantly in favor of their opponents.
Across the Globe we went 3-2, as well as hitting our Bonus bet on the USMNT to win their friendly.
Upcoming Matches:
Saturday’s matches start later than usual, with 5 matches in the 10 a.m. EST slot and then Manchester City hosting Chelsea at 12:30 EST.
Sunday brings 4 matches across 3 time slots, with a tasty London Derby between Crystal Palace and Brentford, as well as a late match at 2 p.m. EST between Fulham and Manchester United.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Ipswich Town +2.5 -105 (Jan 25, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Backing any team against a Liverpool side playing at Anfield is usually a recipe for disaster, however, I’m loving Ipswich +2.5 this weekend.
Ipswich just got demolished by Manchester City at home and now have to travel to one of the toughest venues in England. While it certainly has the potential to keep getting worse, I think the bounce-back in their mentality after conceding 6 at home will be enough to keep the fight close to Liverpool, or at least defend for their lives so as to not concede so many goals back-to-back.
Liverpool are coming off a Brentford game last weekend that looked like it may end 0-0, until two late goals from Núñez saved the Reds. They then hosted Lille in the Champions League on Tuesday, managing a 2-1 win.
Despite having the best defensive record in the league and the most goals in the league, Liverpool have only won by 3 or more goals 4 times in the league this season and 7 times across all competitions.
While I think Liverpool should get a comfortable win, Ipswich will have had time to prepare and will look to shake off the huge defeat to City and at least keep it close.
Pick #2: 2-Leg Parlay: Newcastle Moneyline and Arsenal Moneyline +105 (Jan. 25, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
My next bet is backing a strategy we’ve employed the last two weeks, parlaying 2 favorites, this time road favorites, to win against clubs in or near the relegation zone (places 18-20).
Both of these matches take place Saturday during the first window of matches at 10 a.m. EST.
First up is Southampton hosting Newcastle. Southampton haven’t won an EPL match since November 2, their only win in the league. They’re 1-3-18 and have lost their last 5 EPL matches, conceding 14 goals and scoring 5 in that run.
Newcastle, on the other hand, just had their first loss to end a 9-match winning run. Southampton will be the perfect opponents to put themselves back into the win column.
The other match is Wolves hosting Arsenal.
Wolves are in the middle of a an EPL gauntlet, having faced Spurs, Forest, Newcastle, and Chelsea in their last 4 EPL matches. They now prepare for matches against Arsenal, Villa, then Liverpool. While the Victor Pereira era at Wolves is showing some bright sparks, we’ll continue to fade them through this tough run of matches.
Pick #3: Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) to Score or Assist -115 (Jan. 26, 2025; 9:00 a.m. EST):
If you’ve followed this series this season, you’ll know we expected big things from Crystal Palace this season, betting them to finish in the top half of the table this season and betting them heavily to start the season.
After their rough start, they found themselves on my “Do Not Bet” list and their manager found himself in the hot seat. In classic fashion, they’ve done fairly well since I stopped betting them, having lost only 2 of their last 15 league games, now only 2 places outside of the top half.
While I think I’m about ready to bet them again (and perhaps be hurt again), I’m starting off with a player prop rather than a match result.
JP Mateta has been important to CP’s revival, seemingly as Glasner’s preferred striker, and has now linked up well with Eberechi Eze and Ismaïla Sarr, a player I’ve been fond of since his time at Watford.
Mateta has 4 goals in his last 3 matches and I’m backing him to get the goal (perhaps a penalty) or an assist in this match against Brentford, who have only won one EPL match on the road this season and are 15th of 20 for clean sheets and average goals conceded.
Across the Globe:
Atalanta Moneyline -110 (Italy; Serie A)
Atletico Madrid Moneyline -130 (Spain; La Liga)
Bayer Leverkusen Moneyline -115 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Club América Moneyline -135 (Mexico; Liga MX)
Anderlecht Moneyline -110 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 29-36
Across the Globe: 52-53
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