Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Last week, we saw Bournemouth continue their hot streak with a 5-0 thrashing of Nottingham Forest, handing them their first loss since December 4, ending a 9-match unbeaten streak.
Omar Marmoush got his debut for Manchester City, helping them to a come-from-behind victory at home to Chelsea.
On Sunday, Spurs were “Spursy,” as they say, blowing a 1-goal lead in miserable fashion to Leicester while at home, breaking a 7-match losing streak in the EPL for Leicester.
For our Best Bets, we went 1-2, missing out on Ipswich on the spread and on JP Mateta to Score or Assist, hitting our parlay with Arsenal and Newcastle.
Across the Globe we went 3-2, getting us back to .500 on the season for the ATG record.
Upcoming Matches:
We’re back to a pretty traditional slate, with an early match on Saturday, 3 matches Sunday, culminating in Arsenal hosting Manchester City in the marquee match, then Monday Night Football, as Chelsea host West Ham in a London Derby.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Liverpool Moneyline -140 (Feb. 1, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For my first Bet, I’m taking a slightly safer pick in a high-flying Liverpool.
Liverpool’s last league game was a 4-1 win, then they played a rotated squad for their Champions League match on Wednesday, losing 3-2 to PSV, but finishing first in the League Phase of the Champions League.
They now travel to Bournemouth, who have punched above their weight this season with impressive performances against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest as of late.
Liverpool face a crazy busy schedule over the next few weeks with a Carabao Cup semifinal with Spurs in the middle of next week, the FA Cup next weekend, and then a makeup match against their local rivals, Everton, in the middle of the following week.
Had they not just guaranteed some time off in the Champions League by playing their B squad, I wouldn’t be betting them. However, I expect this Liverpool team, who still have the best offensive record and arguably best defensive record in the league, to keep their head down and get a win with the well-rested A-Team.
Pick #2: Aston Villa Moneyline +115 (Feb. 1, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):
For my second bet, I’m backing another team that just secured automatic qualification to the Round of 16 in the Champions League (essentially getting a “bye” in the next round), Aston Villa.
Like Liverpool, they’re also on the road to Wolves. Last week, we faded Wolves in our parlay to success, discussing the gauntlet for Wolves, having faced Spurs, Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea, and Arsenal in their last 5 league games. They now face Villa, then Liverpool next in the league.
In that tough run, Wolves have only managed 1 point, a draw with Spurs.
With Jhon Duran leaving for Saudi Arabia and Ollie Watkins slipping on his penalty in the Champions League, I expect him to be hungry for goals this weekend. I’ll dabble on Ollie Watkins to Score or Assist -115.
Pick #3: Tottenham Hotspur Double Chance -135 (Feb. 2, 2025; 9:00 a.m. EST):
If I didn’t have some bias towards Spurs, they’d likely be on my “Do Not Bet” list based on their recent run of form.
However, like my other bets this week, they’re coming off a positive result in European competition, now playing on the road in the league. They’re coming off a 3-0 win against Elfsborg in the Europa League and, even more importantly, they have Micky Van de Ven back in defense.
Spurs will face Liverpool in the semi-final of the Carabao cup in the middle of next week, leading after the first leg. Spurs are desperate for a trophy, and the Carabao Cup may be the easiest to get this year. However, sitting in 15th in the EPL, a win this weekend (or at least a draw) should help build the confidence into an important week.
Brentford, despite scoring the most goals at home out of any EPL club this season, have not won in 5 matches across all competitions at home, going 0-1-4.
Across the Globe:
SC Freiburg to Win Either Half -130 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Borussia Dortmund Moneyline -135 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Toulouse to Win Either Half -130 (France; Ligue 1)
Olympique Marseille Moneyline +100 (France; Ligue 1)
Boca Juniors Moneyline -120 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 30-38
Across the Globe: 55-55
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