Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Matchweek 24 brought us some big storylines, with a couple of blowouts against decent opposition.
The early game saw Nottingham Forest obliterate Brighton in a 7-0 thrashing, a huge bounce back from their 0-5 loss at Bournemouth the week prior.
Sunday brought quite a bit of misery to Manchester, as Manchester United lost 0-2 at home to Crystal Palace and Manchester City lost 5-1 at Arsenal, having equalized after 55 minutes, only to concede a goal a minute later and then 3 more thereafter.
For our Best Bets, we went 2-1, winning rather easily on Liverpool and Spurs, losing on Aston Villa.
Across the Globe we did great, hitting all 5 bets, though most of them were on the safer side, around -120 or -130.
Upcoming Matches:
In my last article, I had missed a makeup match between Everton and Liverpool, thinking it was counted in this slate. It was the last Derby match at Everton’s Goodison Park, before they move to their new stadium. They had a late equalizing goal, drawing 2-2 and forcing Liverpool to drop points. Each side also got a late red card, with Liverpool’s coach also being shown a red at the end of the game.
Our first match of the week kicks off Friday with Brighton hosting Chelsea.
Saturday brings us 7 matches across 3 windows, with interesting clashes between South Coast “rivals” Bournemouth and Southampton (though Bournemouth likely see it as the bigger rivalry), and fun matchups between Fulham and Nottingham Forest, as well as Man City hosting Newcastle.
We have two matches on Sunday, with the marquee match being Spurs hosting Man U.
Next Wednesday sees another match for Liverpool and Aston Villa, giving them each 2 matches this week, Liverpool’s second double gameweek in a row.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Georginio Rutter (Brighton) 1+ Shots on Target -130 (Feb. 14, 2025; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my first Bet this week, I’m going with a rare player prop as my Best Bet. I’m often hesitant on player props in soccer because of how low-scoring the sport can be, making goals, assists, and shots somewhat inconsistent. Every now and again, though, certain players have a consistent run of form, such as Georginio Rutter for Brighton.
Rutter, who joined in the summer for a club-record fee from Leeds, has put together a solid season, despite often playing fewer than 90 minutes. He averages .6 shots on goal per 90 minutes, but 3 shots per 90, leading the team in that statistic.
Meanwhile, Chelsea aren’t the greatest defensively, having only 4 clean sheets in the league this year and averaging 3.4 saves per match, putting them 7th of 20 in that statistic.
Further, Chelsea and Brighton just played in the FA Cup last weekend at Brighton, with Brighton winning 2-1. Chelsea will likely field a tougher 11 this time at Brighton, but I expect Rutter to get a shot on target, even if he comes off the bench.
Bonus: I actually think Chelsea will may snag the win here, so I’ll dabble on Chelsea Moneyline +130 as well.
Pick #2: 2-Leg SGP: Bournemouth Moneyline and Under 1.5 Southampton Goals -145 (Feb. 15, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For my second Best Bet, I’m looking at a south coast clash between 7th-place Bournemouth and last-place Southampton. For this bet, I’m doing something a little different, backing the favorite (Bournemouth) to win and the underdogs (Southampton) to score under 1.5 goals.
Bournemouth will likely see this as a bigger Derby match than Southampton, who really see Portsmouth as their big local rival.
Bournemouth are hot this season, having 11 wins out of 24. Also impressively, they’ve conceded only 28 goals, putting them in 4th for goals conceded, only behind Liverpool, Arsenal, and Nottingham Forest.
Southampton, on the other hand, has only scored 2+ goals in the EPL 4 times this season, only 2 of which were wins
Expect a comfortable Bournemouth victory against a Southampton side that will struggle for chances and goals.
Pick #3: Crystal Palace Moneyline -115 (Feb. 15, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):
I’m finally ready to remove CP from my “Do Not Bet” list following a solid run of form, going 6-2-2 in their last 10 matches, with only 4 losses in their last 20 in all competitions. I still have a future on them to finish in the top half, which looked terrible to start the season, but now looks attainable with them in 12th, only 4 points off 10th-place Brighton.
JP Mateta has been on fire, scoring 6 goals in his last 5 league matches. I’ll also dabble on Mateta to Score or Assist +110.
Everton, their opponents, are also on the up and up under Moyes, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, and their most recent match being the the 2-2 draw at home against Liverpool. However, this hard fought match in the middle of the week is exactly why I’m fading them this week. They fielded a strong squad and had a long, tough match, requiring a late equalizer. This match also included a red card for Doucouré, meaning he’ll miss this upcoming match.
Across the Globe:
Boca Juniors to Win Either Half -130 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
Besiktas Moneyline -115 (Türkiye; Super Lig)
2-Leg Parlay: Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid Moneylines +130 (Spain; La Liga)
Royal Antwerp Moneyline -150 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
Fiorentina Moneyline -105 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 32-39
Across the Globe: 60-55
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