Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Matchweek 25 started with Brighton beating Chelsea 3-0, their second win over Chelsea within a week, following their FA Cup victory the weekend prior.
On Saturday, everyone was wondering how Arsenal would deal without a true striker and, while the first experiment with Trossard at striker and Sterling on the left didn’t work, but pushing Trossard out left and putting Merino in at striker was the magic ticket, as he scored 2 goals to give Arsenal the win.
New Man City signing Omar Marmoush also had a solid day, scoring a first half hat trick against Newcastle.
Tottenham beat a struggling Manchester United on Sunday, while Liverpool beat Wolves on Sunday, but drew 2-2 with Aston Villa in their rescheduled match on Wednesday, putting the title race conversation back on!
For our Best Bets, we went 1-2, losing our player prop and losing Crystal Palace, winning on Bournemouth.
Across the Globe we went 3-2, only missing our Madrid parlay and Fiorentina.
Upcoming Matches:
Our first match of the week kicks off Friday with Leicester hosting Brighton.
Saturday brings us 7 matches across 3 windows, with a London Derby between Fulham and Crystal Palace, and the late game has Villa hosting Chelsea.
We have two great matches to look forward to on Sunday, with the Newcastle hosting Nottingham Forest before the big match of the weekend, Man City hosting Liverpool.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Manchester United to Win Either Hald -105 (Feb. 22, 2025; 7:30 a.m. EST):
For my first Bet this week, I’m backing the struggling Manchester United to have a better game than they did at Spurs and at least win a half against Everton.
In their last match against Spurs, United had a bench squad made up entirely of teenagers, but for Victor Lindelöf. Most or all of those youngsters had never played for the first team before, so this was a major statement by Ruben Amorim and United. It was perhaps necessitated by injuries in the midfield, but it was still a big story.
They should hopefully get Ugarte back in the squad for the weekend, and may have Christian Eriksen available as well as another senior option to call on.
While United haven’t been in great form, they will be looking at this next run of games (Everton, Ipswich, Fulham) as an opportunity to pick up some much-needed points.
I’ve bet against Everton as of late to my peril, as they’ve done well since David Moyes took over, going 4-1-0 over the last 5 EPL matches. They may keep that success going, but they’ve also conceded 5 goals in their last 3 matches in all competitions, so they’re not impervious to goals. The bigger question will be whether United can score.
Pick #2: Tottenham Moneyline -110 (Feb. 22, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For my second Best Bet, I’m backing Spurs to continue bouncing back after their victory at Manchester United, while fading an Ipswich team fighting for relegation.
Tottenham have been plagued by injuries for large parts of the season, missing key players such as their starting keeper, striker, and multiple defenders, including their preferred center back pairing.
They finally got their starting keeper back last week to face United, as well as creative midfielder James Madison, who got the goal.
Despite sitting in 12th, Spurs still have scored the 4th most goals in the league, more than doubling Ipswich Town’s goals this season. On the other hand, Ipswich has conceded the 4th most goals in the league and scored the second fewest, only behind Southampton.
With Vicario, Johnson, Maddison, Odobert, and very likely Destiny Udogie and Micky Van de Ven back at full fitness, Spurs should be primed for an uptick and form at Ipswich before hosting Manchester City in a few days’ time.
Pick #3: Mikel Merino to Score or Assist +140 (Feb. 22, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For my final Best Bet, I’m trying another player prop and taking Mikel Merino, Arsenal’s new “striker” to score or assist. I had to search around for this line and expect it may change as we draw closer to kickoff, especially if he starts in that position rather than coming off the bench like last week.
As I stated previously, the first experiment for Arsenal didn’t work. Sterling on the left was not working for them, but once they subbed him off for Merino and shifted Trossard to the left, Arsenal finally unlocked the Leicester defense, scoring twice.
Merino is 6ft 2in tall and can provide that physical presence in front of goal. He’s also good with his feet and could provide an assist if Arsenal are passing around the box.
West Ham have not been anything to write home about yet under Graham Potter. They’ve not had a clean sheet since December and have only had 4 all season. They’ve only won 2 of their last 10 in all competitions and have lost 6 of those.
I’m backing the Merino experiment to keep bringing success to the striker-less Arsenal.
Across the Globe:
AC Milan Moneyline +100 (Italy; Serie A)
Atletico Madrid Moneyline -110 (Spain; La Liga)
FC Cincinnati Moneyline +105 (USA; MLS)
Royal Antwerp Moneyline -110 (Belgium; Jupiler Pro League)
Napoli Moneyline +120 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 33-41
Across the Globe: 63-57
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