Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Following a 2-2 draw between Aston Villa and Liverpool to end matchweek 25, matchweek 26 was primed to be a big week for the title race, as Arsenal were only 8 points behind Liverpool with a game in hand.
That conversation quickly turned as Arsenal lost 0-1 at home to West Ham on Saturday and with Liverpool beating Manchester City 0-2 on the road.
Liverpool still have played an extra match than the others near the top, but now look relatively clear at the top, 11 points ahead of Arsenal. It’s truly their title to lose at this point as we enter the final stretch of the season.
For our Best Bets, we went 2-1, losing our player prop (again) but winning on Manchester United and on Tottenham.
Across the Globe we went 2-3, winning Atletico Madrid and Cincinnati, losing AC Milan, Royal Antwerp, and Napoli.
Upcoming Matches:
We have a quick turnaround before Matchweek 27 kicks off in the middle of the week.
We have 4 matches kicking off Tuesday, with Crystal Palace hosting Aston Villa as one of the more exciting matches.
On Wednesday, we’ll get 5 matches, with Tottenham hosting Manchester City and Liverpool hosting Newcastle.
Thursday brings us the final match of the week between West Ham and Leicester, two clubs struggling to find some form.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: J.P. Mateta (Crystal Palace) to Score or Assist +110 (Feb. 25, 2025; 2:30 p.m. EST):
I’ve struggled with the timing of player props as of late, but am feeling solid about this bet. Crystal Palace have been in a great run of form, only losing 2 of their last 10 in all competitions. Their success is largely thanks to their defensive resilience, led by Marc Guehi, and their goalscoring consistency, primarily led by J.P. Mateta.
Mateta has a goal contribution in 6 of his last 7 matches, scoring 7 and assisting 1 in that run.
Aston Villa will be a tough opponent, as they’ve got a top keeper in Emi Martinez and have added Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio in attack. Their new attackers combined for the winning goal against Chelsea last week to give Villa a 2-1 win. They’ll be riding high, but will also need to prepare for this match, the FA Cup at the weekend, and Champions League knockouts next week.
CP will also have an FA Cup clash at the weekend, but they should be able to rest some starters for that match against Millwall.
If CP keep up their fine form, it will likely channel through Mateta. While I think he’ll bag a goal, I’ll play it safe and go with to Score or Assist.
Pick #2: Georginio Rutter (Brighton) 1+ Shot on Target -120 (Feb. 25, 2025; 2:30 p.m. EST):
For my second Best Bet, I’m going back to a bet I lost two weeks ago, that would have hit had I bet it last week.
As I discussed two weeks ago, Rutter averages .7 shots on target per 90 minutes. However, he leads the squad with shots per 90 with 2.9. While his conversion rate leaves something to be desired, his work rate is consistent
Rutter has gone through spells this season of starting and making way for a sub, as well as spells of starting on the bench and being subbed on. Despite only playing 90 minutes once in his last 6 matches, he has 3 goals in that span, including a goal last time out against Southampton.
Bournemouth, their opponents, have had an incredible run this season, finding themselves in 6th. They’ve only allowed 30 goals all season but are 3rd in the league for saves. For this reason, I’ll be backing Rutter for a shot on target rather than a goal or assist.
Pick #3: Tottenham to Win Either Half +100 (Feb. 26, 2025; 2:30 p.m. EST):
For my final Best Bet, I’m looking at the match between Tottenham and Manchester City, backing Spurs to continue their uptick in form since getting some players back from injury.
Tottenham are a bit of a bogey team for Manchester City, especially when they travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. This season, Spurs beat City 0-4 in Manchester in their first EPL meeting, then beat them 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to knock them out of the Carabao Cup.
Spurs have won their last 2 EPL matches (Manchester United and Ipswich) after getting their starting keeper and a few other important players back from injury.
Despite sitting 12th in the table, Spurs would be sitting in 6th if clubs only played the first half, having led 13 matches at the half. They’ve also won 10 second halves as well. While Manchester City still lead Spurs in the first half table and second half table, the gap is far closer than the actual table.
Manchester City are still looking like a shell of their squad from last year and have now crashed out of the Carabao Cup and Champions League. They’ll play in the FA Cup this weekend while Spurs will not, but they’ll play Plymouth and should be able to prioritize the match against Spurs.
I expect Spurs to get the first goal in this match and struggle to hold on thereafter, but believe they can win at least one of the halves, whether they start strong or need to mount a second-half comeback.
Across the Globe:
Inter Milan Moneyline -130 (Italy; La Liga)
RB Leipzig Moneyline +105 (Germany; DFB Pokal)
Real Madrid Moneyline -110 (Spain; Copa del Rey)
USWNT Moneyline +125 (International Women; SheBelieves Cup)
AC Milan to Win Either Half -130 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 35-42
Across the Globe: 65-60
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