Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Matchweek 27 went well for league-leaders, Liverpool, as they secured a 2-0 victory over Newcastle, while Arsenal and Nottingham Forest played to a scoreless draw.
Both Man City and Chelsea won, keeping the race for top 4 quite interesting. The top 4 will automatically earn a place in next season’s Champions League, though it is very likely England will get an extra spot, so 5th should be enough to earn a spot.
For our Best Bets, we went 2-1, finally getting some success with our player props, losing on Tottenham.
Across the Globe we went 4-1, only losing on the USWNT, while winning AC Milan to Win Either Half -130, despite them going on to lose 2-1.
Upcoming Matches:
We have a rather traditional matchweek this weekend, kicking off early Saturday with a battle between 3rd and 4th in Nottingham Forest hosting Man City, while ending Monday with West Ham hosting Newcastle.
The marquee match of the weekend comes Sunday, as Manchester United host Arsenal.
One difference this weekend for those of us here in the States is daylight savings time, which comes 2 weeks before the Brits spring ahead. This means Sunday kicks off at 10:00 a.m. EST with Monday’s clash kicking off at 4:00 p.m. EST.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Manchester City Moneyline -110 (March 8, 2025; 7:30 a.m. EST):
For our first bet, I’m taking the early match between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City.
My logic for this one is that I see two clubs going in opposite direction in form, contrary to the season thus far.
Nottingham Forest have had an incredible season, one that likely only Forest fans could have imagined. However, since their impressive 7-0 win against Brighton on Feb. 1, they’ve struggled with 2 losses and a draw in the league, and 2 FA Cup matches that both went to penalties, with Forest ultimately advancing.
Manchester City, on the other hand, has won 2 in a row. In their last 15 matches, they’ve won 9, drawn once against Brentford away, and have had 5 losses. Those losses, however, were all against arguably the toughest squads in the world, losing to PSG, Arsenal, Real Madrid twice, and Liverpool.
Man City won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in December and are now out of the Champions League and can focus on the EPL. I’m expecting they’ll get the double on Forest, though perhaps not as comfortably as 3-0.
Pick #2: Liverpool to Win to Nil -105 (March 8, 2025; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Next, I’m eying the match between First and Worst, as Liverpool host Southampton.
Liverpool have been a dominant force this season under Arne Slot. They lead the league in goals, averaging 2.4 per match, and lead in shots on target. In defense, they’ve got the most clean sheets with 12 and are second in average goals conceded.
Also, if you saw Alisson’s performance in the Champions League this week, he put on one of the best goalkeeping displays I’ve seen during Liverpool’s worst match of the season.
Southampton on the other hand, are on the opposite end of those stats. They have the fewest goals and most goals against. They sit 19th for shots on target and haven’t scored in 2 matches.
Liverpool haven’t kept a clean sheet against Southampton yet this season, playing them twice so far in all competitions, but after the nervy defensive display in the Champions League against PSG, I expect Liverpool to lock down Southampton far better than they did PSG.
Pick #3: Arsenal Moneyline -135 (March 9, 2025; 12:30 p.m. EST):
For my final Best Bet, I'm looking at the marquee match on Sunday between Manchester United and Arsenal.
Arsenal seemed to solve their lack of a striker problem a few weeks ago by putting Mikel Merino up top. While it didn’t work against West Ham and Nottingham Forest, Arsenal clicked this week during their Champions League match away at PSV, winning 1-7 with 7 different goalscorers.
Manchester United have strikers, their problem is they aren’t scoring. Rasmus Højlund hasn’t scored since December 12 in a Europa League match against Viktoria Plzen.
Each of these teams played midweek, but with Arsenal playing on Tuesday and getting their massive win, while United played Thursday away at Real Sociedad, ending in a 1-1 draw. United will have had less recovery time and Arsenal should feel confident in prioritizing this match before hosting the second leg of PSV with that comfortable lead.
Further, United knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup, a competition they’ve won more than any other club, so they’ll be seeking revenge in the league.
Across the Globe:
Independiente Medellin Moneyline +100 (Columbia; Primera A)
Atlanta United FC Moneyline +110 (USA; MLS)
Atletico Madrid Moneyline -105 (Spain; La Liga)
AS Roma Moneyline -105 (Italy; Serie A)
Silkeborg IF Moneyline -130 (Denmark; Superligaen)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 37-43
Across the Globe: 69-61
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