Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Does anyone even remember the last EPL matches? After an international break and then a break for the FA Cup, we haven’t had a league game since March 16!
In the meantime, Newcastle won the EFL Cup by beating Liverpool, giving Newcastle their first trophy in 70 years!
We had some big FA Cup ties, as Fulham, Crystal Palace, Brighton, Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, and Man City all playing this past weekend.
Last matchweek in the EPL was critical for the relegation battle, as Wolves put an additional 3 points between them and Ipswich and Leicester in the bottom 3. It’s looking ever more likely that the 3 promoted teams from last season will all be going straight back down.
The fight for Europe is the most interesting race left, with only 5 points between Chelsea in 4th place and Bournemouth in 10th.
Our Best Bets went 2-1, only losing on Spurs. Across the Globe we went 4-1, only losing Philadelphia Union, while winning on Minnesota to Win Either Half, despite them blowing a 3-goal lead to end in a draw. Overall, a much better betting weekend than the week prior!
Upcoming Matches:
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Following the break at the weekend for the FA Cup, we now have 3 midweek days of EPL Action!
Tuesday sees 3 matches, with the marquee match being Nottingham Forest hosting Manchester United.
There are 6 matches on Wednesday, culminating in the Merseyside Derby between Liverpool and Everton, at Liverpool’s home, Anfield.
Thursday has just one match, a London Derby as Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
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Pick #1: Manchester City to Win to Nil +100 (April 2, 2025;Â 2:45Â p.m. EST):
For our first bet, I’m looking to continue fading a Leicester side that sit squarely in the relegation zone. Manchester City have been terrible this season by their standards, but they always seem to have a push in the final 10 or so matches, which they’ll need for the FA Cup and to make the Champions League for next season.
Leicester sit in 19th place and, critically, are 9 points (3 wins) from safety. They’ve lost their last 6 EPL matches and have not managed a goal in any of them. I haven’t been convinced with the Ruud van Nistelrooy era, as they aren’t finding a way to score goals, having only scored 3 goals in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Man City played at the weekend in the FA Cup, unlike Leicester. Even worse, Erling Haaland limped off with an ankle injury in the second half. However, this may just improve their overall defensive capabilities without him, if he truly is not fit to start.
City have had an uptick in form in the FA Cup and the EPL, now that they’re out of the Champions League. Their recent losses have been against tough opposition (Nottingham Forest, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Arsenal, PSG) and have had decent results against the other opposition they’ve faced.
They’ve got plenty of talent to beat Leicester, and Leicester are in a scoring drought, so I’m taking advantage, regardless of whether Haaland is fit to start.
Pick #2: Aston Villa to Win Either Half +100 (April 2, 2025; 2:45 p.m. EST):
For this next bet, I’m looking at two clubs that had FA Cup matches this weekend, Villa and Brighton.
Both clubs are in a run of solid form, with Brighton having not lost in 8 matches, except for their FA Cup match this past weekend where they drew 0-0 and lost on penalties. Villa, on the other hand, have won their last 6 and only have one loss in their last 10 matches.
Part of this logic is the quick turnaround after the FA Cup and the difficulty of those matches. While Villa’s win wasn’t comfortable in the first half, they pulled away with 3 goals in the second, against 2nd-tier side Preston North End. While Brighton played a day earlier than Villa, they played a grueling match with Nottingham Forest, ultimately losing on penalties.
Villa are really clicking after the January transfer window, with Rashford finding his form and Marco Asensio looking like his prime self. They were able to rest Ollie Watkins at the weekend, giving him only a 9-minute cameo.
Brighton also tried resting their striker, João Pedro, but he ended up playing 20 minutes, extra time, then penalties.
While both clubs have had consistent form as of late, I’ll back Villa to keep it alive and at least win a half.
Pick #3: 2-Leg Parlay: Bournemouth Moneyline and Liverpool Moneyline -110 (April 2, 2025; 2:45 p.m. EST and 3:00 p.m. EST):
For my final Best Bet, I'm parlaying two favorites to get the job done at home.
The first is Bournemouth, who were flying to start the season and have started to slump as the amount of games picks up. They haven’t won in 4 league matches, but prior to that they had a streak where they only lost to Liverpool in a 10 match span.
They’re now out of the FA Cup at the hands of Manchester City and can again focus on moving up the table in the EPL.
They play Ipswich, who haven’t won a match in the EPL since December, and have a record of 3-8-18 this season.
The other leg is Liverpool to win the Merseyside Derby at Anfield.
While a Merseyside Derby can be a gritty match, Liverpool will feel they need a win here to cap their season.
They are already shoe-ins for the Premier League Title, but the way they’ve slipped in other competitions (eliminated from Champions League, losing EFL Cup Final, crashing out of FA Cup to Plymouth Argyle) has folks questioning how good they truly are.
They blew a 2-1 lead in the last Merseyside Derby at Everton in the closing minutes and will feel like this match against their cross-town rivals will be important to the fans and to the overall success of their season.Â
Coming off the loss to Newcastle in the EFL Cup final, they’ll look to bounce right back in front of their home crowd.
Across the Globe:
Colo Colo to Win Either Half -105 (International; Copa Libertadores)
Club América Moneyline +100 (International; CONCACAF Champions Cup)
Tigres to Win Either Half -125 (International; CONCACAF Champions Cup)
Inter Milan Moneyline +120 (Italy; Coppa Italia)
Central Cordoba Moneyline +125 (International; Copa Libertadores)
Season Record:
Best Bets:Â 39-47
Across the Globe:Â 74-66
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