Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
Week 3 of EPL action had plenty of drama. Arsenal drop points by drawing with Brighton following a somewhat controversial red card, Bournemouth mounted one of the greatest late comebacks in EPL history, and Liverpool rout Manchester United at Old Trafford.
For our Best Bets were 2-1, winning Brentford and Aston Villa, losing Spurs.
The Bonus Bets were 1-1 thanks to the Bournemouth comeback, though Man City again failed to keep a clean sheet, losing that bet.
Across the Globe we were 3-2, hitting both MLS bets and Marseille, losing both German Bundesliga bets.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 4 will give us 8 matches on Saturday across 4 time slots, kicking off at 7:30 a.m. EST.
Sunday has the big matchup for the weekend with Tottenham hosting Arsenal in the North London Derby.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Manchester United Moneyline -135 (Sep. 14, 2024; 7:30 a.m. EST):
Manchester United just suffered a big loss to Liverpool, a historic rival of theirs, leaving them with 2 losses in a row and sit 14th in the table. Since their loss to Liverpool, Cristiano Ronaldo has made critical statements about the club and the rebuild required to be at the top again. They could desperately use a win this weekend and Southampton may be the perfect opponent.
Southampton have 3 losses to start the EPL season, though they have a win in the Carabao Cup over Cardiff. This is a tough spot for Southampton, who will travel north in the middle of next week to play Everton in the Carabao Cup before taking on Ipswich at home. I think they’ll be looking ahead to the Cup match, as well as the following match against fellow newcomer, Ipswich, who they should feel they can beat at home.
United, on the other hand, play 3rd tier Barnsley in the Cup next week, a game they should be able to win while resting some players. United will need to prioritize an immediate win in the EPL while Southampton may prioritize surviving in the Cup. Even better, they should have new signing Manuel Ugarte available to start or sub on.
Looking for a player prop? Joshua Zirkzee has been a bright spark for United with a goal in matchweek 1, had a goal ruled out for offside in matchweek 2, and came close twice in the loss to Liverpool last week. Take Joshua Zirkzee to Score Anytime +140.
Pick #2: West Ham United to Win Either Half -115 (Sep. 14, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
If you’ve followed my Best Bet articles, you’ll know one of my favorite markets for soccer betting is “To Win Either Half.” This market requires a goal but can allow for fun results, such as cashing easily in the first half or perhaps going down 3-0 in the first half and getting a random goal back in the second to cash the bet.
This time of year, the world soccer calendar can start to be an influential factor. We are just coming off an international break, with some players going to play with their national teams and others staying back to train or rest.
We also have EFL Cup matches taking place in the midweek, currently affecting many Premier League clubs, and the European Competitions (Champions League / Europa League / Conference League) about to start for some of the top clubs.
Here, West Ham face Fulham before playing Chelsea next weekend and Liverpool midweek thereafter: two tough games. They’ll need to focus on getting these points from Fulham.
Fulham play in the middle of next week in the Cup against Preston, before hosting Newcastle next weekend. They’ll be in the thick of it against Preston while West Ham are preparing for the weekend and their tough run.
West Ham are without new man Niclas Füllkrug, though their star striker, Michail Antonio, got a goal for Jamaica during the international break, upsetting Honduras. I think he’ll still be flying high this weekend (I may even dabble with him to score at +240).
Pick #3: Chelsea Moneyline +100 (Sep. 14, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
For our final Best Bet, we’re taking another nervy one in Chelsea to beat Bournemouth on the road.
Neither of these clubs play in the middle of the week and will get a normal week of rest and training after this match.
Chelsea are still figuring things out and have had a tough schedule, losing to Man City, beating Wolves 2-6 on the road, and then drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace. They’ve had bright moments, though, such as Noni Madueke’s hat trick against Wolves (with all assists by Cole Palmer).
Speaking of Madueke, he got an assist off the bench in his England National Team debut last week. I may dabble for him to score or assist once those lines open closer to matchday.
Bournemouth have managed two draws and a win thus far, but arguably with an easier schedule than Chelsea’s and with the lone win being the dramatic comeback to Everton.
Quite frankly, I think they’ve been impressive but won’t be able to keep it up forever. This week against Chelsea and next week against Liverpool will be a tough test for this Bournemouth team.
Bonus:
Looking to bet the big match this weekend in the North London Derby? I think Tottenham just might get a little something this weekend.
I’m not shy about being a Tottenham supporter, so this may be some fan bias, but I can see Tottenham getting a draw at home here to take points from Arsenal.
Arsenal will be without key midfielders Declan Rice (suspended from last matchweek’s red card) and Martin Ødegaard (injured on international duty), as well as injuries to newcomers Calafiori and Merino. Meanwhile, Tottenham seem set for a boost by having new striker Solanke back from injury.
Further, Arsenal will play in the Champions League in the midweek while Tottenham play 2nd-tier Coventry in the EFL Cup, an easier opponent than Arsenal’s matchup.
I’ll be betting on this game with my favorite markets: Tottenham to Win or Draw -170; Tottenham to Win Either Half -115; and Tottenham Moneyline +190.
Across the Globe:
Toronto FC Moneyline -115 (USA; MLS)
New York Red Bulls Moneyline +145 (USA; MLS)
Indy Eleven Moneyline -115 (USA; USL Championship)
Sevilla Moneyline +120 (Spain; La Liga)
Barcelona Moneyline -125 (Spain; La Liga)
Napoli Moneyline -125 (Italy; Serie A)
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