Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
The big result of Matchweek 4 was Liverpool losing 0-1 at home to Nottingham Forest. Other notable results were Brighton and Ipswich getting a scoreless draw, Everton blowing another 2 goal lead to lose 3-2 (this time to Villa), and Arsenal beating Tottenham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium 0-1 in the North London Derby.
For our Best Bets, we had a great week! All 3 Best Bets hit, cashing Man U Moneyline, Chelsea Moneyline, and West Ham to Win Either Half, who drew 1-1 but won the second half thanks to a late goal from Danny Ings.
Across the Globe we also did well, cashing 5 of our 6 bets, only losing on the New York Red Bulls.
My Bonus Bets, which I personally bet but do not track for my overall records, did not do well, as I missed my player props and did not accurately predict the North London Derby.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 5 brings one of the most exciting matches on the calendar with Manchester City hosting Arsenal. With how strong these sides have been in recent years, this match could be critical in the title race, despite it being so early in the season.
A few other fun matchups include West Ham hosting Chelsea, Southampton hosting Ipswich, and Crystal Palace hosting Manchester United.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Chelsea Moneyline +105 (Sep. 21, 2024; 7:30 a.m. EST):
Last week we backed Chelsea to success on the road and we’re going back to a Chelsea side away from home at West Ham.
West Ham have still seemed to struggle to keep possession and create chances, struggling to break free from the counterattacking style former coach David Moyes utilized last season. They are 19th out of 20 in shots on target per match (Chelsea are 6th) and 14th in possession per match (Chelsea are 6th). Chelsea are second in goals scored per match (West Ham are 10th), so they’re getting significantly more possession, more shots, and more goals per match than their West Ham opposition.
West Ham are still seeming to find identity as counter-attacking team, with the 4th most interceptions per match this season of the 20 EPL clubs, but they’re also sloppy in their challenges, as they’re 19th for successful tackles per match.
Each club plays in the midweek next week but with West Ham having the significantly tougher opponent in Liverpool while Chelsea take on 4th tier Barrow. This is a tough spot for West Ham, who are still without Füllkrug.
Pick #2: Brighton -115 (Sep. 22, 2024; 9:00 a.m. EST):
Brighton are looking excellent under new coach Fabian Hürzeler and are unbeaten in preseason and in all competitions with 10 matches unbeaten. They just played in the EFL cup and won 3-2 over Wolves, although both sides used heavily rotated squads. Sometimes I would see this extra match and quick succession of games as a negative, but I think the win with the rotated squad will be a good momentum shift after their scoreless draw to Ipswich last time out.
Forest, their opponents, are strong defensively under a defensive-minded coach Nuno Espírito Santo and didn’t play in the middle of the week, as they’re out of the EFL Cup. They’ll be tough to break down, like they were against Liverpool last weekend, but all Brighton need is a touch of luck or skill to find the breakthrough.
Both sides will have a normal week of training and rest after this game, so I’m backing the high-flying Brighton to get another home victory.
Pick #3: Manchester City Moneyline -120 (Sep. 22, 2024; 11:30 p.m. EST):
For our final Best Bet, we’re backing the Champions in the big match against Arsenal.
It’s no secret I’ve been backing City to best Arsenal again this season to the EPL title and I currently have a future bet on City to win the title. This match is a big one and could be critical the title race.
Both clubs played scoreless draws in the Champions League this week, so I’m nervous this game ends in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw. However, both clubs played tough Italian clubs in the UCL, and defensive stability is historically valued and ingrained into Italian teams.
Like the Brighton match, I’m backing the home side to find a way through in an otherwise tough defensive and tactical matchup.
City may be without De Bruyne and Arsenal are definitely without Ødegaard, big missed to each clubs’ midfield, although I think Man City has greater strength of depth than Arsenal.
Bonus:
Looking for a player prop? They aren’t exactly my forte but I like these this weekend:
Morgan Rogers (Aston Villa) to Score or Assist +110
Morgan Rogers has looked excellent at Villa, clearly passing the “eye test,” and causing several Fantasy Premier League players (myself included) to bring him into the squad within these last two weeks.
He has not turned any of that good skill and playmaking into a goal contribution yet, but the way he is playing makes it seem like it is only a matter of time before he gets the goals/assists.
João Pedro (Brighton) to Score Anytime +160
I’m not entirely certain at the time of writing whether João Pedro will be fit to play in this match, so it may be worthwhile to wait and see if he starts, or bet it on a book that will push the bet if he doesn’t start (I believe DraftKings and ESPN Bet both do this).
He’s scored in 2 of the 3 games in which he’s started, scoring against Manchester United and Arsenal. If he starts, I’ll be betting him to score.
Across the Globe:
AIK Moneyline -115 (Sweden; Allsvenskan)
FC Cincinnati Moneyline +140 (USA; MLS)
Club America +105 (Mexico; Liga MX)
Toulouse to Win Either Half +110 (France; Ligue 1)
Dortmund to Win Either Half -125 (Germany; Bundesliga)
Palmeiras Moneyline -115 (Brazil; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 8-4
Across the Globe: 13-9
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