Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
What. A. Game. Man City hosting Arsenal was the big match of the week and it didn’t disappoint. Arsenal led 2-1 (including a pretty debut goal by Calafiori for Arsenal) only to have a player sent off with a red card before halftime. Playing with 10-men for the entire second half, Arsenal defended for their lives (only having 12% possession and 1 shot in that half) but it wasn’t enough, thanks to a John Stones equalizing goal with the final kick of the game. At the final whistle, both sides came away with 1 point apiece.
Other notable results include Crystal Palace holding Man United to a scoreless draw, Chelsea getting another dominant road win, and Brighton and Nottingham Forest drawing 2-2 in a feisty ending that saw both coaches sent off with red cards.
Unfortunately, our bets weren’t as hot this week, going 1-2 for Best Bets (winning Chelsea, losing Brighton and Man City, who both only managed a draw rather than a win). Both Brighton and Man City had the benefit of playing with a man advantage for part of the match but still couldn’t get the win.
Across the Globe we also were below average, going 2-4, only winning AIK and Palmeiras.
We did hit one bonus with Morgan Rogers finally getting a goal contribution.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 6 kicks off Saturday morning at 7:30 a.m. EST with the final match playing Monday at 3:00 p.m. EST. Some exciting matches include Newcastle hosting Man City, Chelsea hosting Brighton, and a struggling Man United hosting Tottenham Hotspur.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Crystal Palace Moneyline +160 (Sep. 28, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
I’m starting out with a big play in Crystal Palace Moneyline at +160.
Crystal Palace are on the road at Everton this week and, although Palace have struggled to start the league (0-3-2), Everton have been worse (0-1-4). Both clubs are searching for their first win and, although I fear a draw could be in the cards, I’m backing Palace to get all 3 points.
Palace are still struggling to find form this season and are seeming to underperform when they have the majority of possession, not putting out the same goal volume as they did last season with Olise in the squad. Everton have the lowest average possession in the league, so this will be the game for Palace to flip that narrative, control the ball, and actually get some goals.
Everton are last in possession, last in accurate passes per match, 18th in shots on target, and don’t look like things are improving on the pitch anytime soon.
Off the pitch, Everton look to have completed a takeover in ownership, ending a bit of a saga on that front. Sometimes media boosts like this impact the results on the pitch but I expect little to no impact from this takeover on the pitch until they make a coaching change or get a chance to invest in the transfer market.
Pick #2: Brentford Moneyline +120 (Sep. 28, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Brentford have 2 wins and 3 losses to start their EPL, placing them 12th of 20. However, those 3 losses were all on the road to a “Big 6” club, losing to Liverpool, Man City, and Tottenham. They’ve looked sharp with Mbuemo and now Carvalho getting in the mix while Wissa is injured, scoring in every match except the one against Liverpool.
Brentford now play at home to a struggling West Ham, who were just thrashed by Liverpool in the EFL Cup on Wednesday 5-1. West Ham put out a decent squad, yet only managed the one goal, being a Liverpool own goal.
I talked a bit in my last article about how West Ham have struggled under new coach Lopetegui, seemingly clinging to the counter-attacking style the team played last season, just with sloppy giveaways and no bite in the final third. They’re 13th in the league for average possession, struggling to make successful tackles and win the ball back (19th of 20), then aren’t able to get the ball upfield for a meaningful chance, sitting 16th for shots on target.
We faded West Ham to success last week, before they got crushed by Liverpool, so I’ll be fading West Han until they start to turn it around.
Pick #3: Tottenham Hotspur to Win Either Half -120 (Sep. 29, 2024; 11:30 p.m. EST):
For my final bet I’m looking at my personal favorite matchup of the weekend, where my favorite club, Tottenham, play a club I also follow closely and am technically a part owner, Manchester United.
United (and coach Erik Ten Hag) could use a win following a disappointing draw to Dutch team Twente in the Europa League on Wednesday. They’ll also get an extra day of rest than Spurs, so I’m not taking Spurs to win outright, just to win a half.
Looking at the form and hype around these teams following their Europa League matches this week, Tottenham have form on their side. They went down a man within the first 10 minutes in their Europa League match on Thursday, still going on to win 3-0 against Qarabag (Azerbaijan). Although they were always the favorites against Qarabag, United were favorites against Twente, suffering a disappointing draw while Spurs got an emphatic win and clean sheet while short-handed.
Tottenham are second (only behind Man City) for average shots on target and United are first in big chances missed. Although I don’t know that they win, if United are wasteful and Tottenham can finish a chance or two, we should hit this bet.
Bonus:
Here are some other leans I have this week in the EPL:
Manchester City Moneyline -165
Chelsea Moneyline -135
Aston Villa Moneyline -110
Across the Globe:
SK Brann Moneyline -130 (Norway; Eliteserien)
Rayo Vallecano Moneyline -110 (Spain; La Liga)
Real Madrid Moneyline +145 (Spain; La Liga)
Marseille Moneyline -105 (France; Ligue 1)
Como Moneyline +110 (Italy; Serie A)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 9-6
Across the Globe: 15-13
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