Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
We have a new leader at the top of the Premier League table in Liverpool, who got a win at last-place Wolves over the weekend. Man City dropped points by drawing 1-1 with Newcastle, while Arsenal looked set to draw with Leicester before scoring 2 late goals.
Aston Villa could have gone top of the table, but drew 2-2 to Ipswich Town. In the big match of the week, Tottenham beat Manchester United 0-3 away from home in a commanding win for Spurs. Although United had an unfortunate red card (that has since been downgraded after the match, meaning the player won’t receive a match ban), Tottenham dominated the match from the start and were the much better team.
It was another rough day at the office with our bets, going 1-2 for Best Bets (losing Palace and Brentford, winning Spurs to Win Either Half) and 2-3 Across the Globe (winning Como and SK Brann, losing Rayo Vallecano, Real Madrid, and Marseille).
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 7 kicks off Saturday with 7 matches across 3 windows, with 3 matches across 2 windows on Sunday. Some exciting matches include Crystal Palace hosting Liverpool, Aston Villa hosting Manchester United, and Brighton hosting Spurs.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: West Ham Moneyline -125 (Oct. 5, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Last week we faded a struggling West Ham and didn’t have success, as they drew with Brentford. Although they’re still winless in 5 matches, this match against Ipswich Town at home is the perfect opportunity to turn it around.
West Ham have a road match at Spurs and then are home against Manchester United after that, so they’ll see this Ipswich match at home as a must-win.
Ipswich have yet to win this season, though they’ve managed 4 draws in their last 4 EPL matches, including two goals from Liam Delap against Villa last weekend. He’ll get more goals this season, but I’m still taking the home favorites to get a win to turnaround their form.
Pick #2: Brentford Moneyline +110 (Oct. 5, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Last week we backed Brentford against West Ham and were foiled by the Hammers with a 1-1 draw.
Brentford have scored a goal in the opening minute of their last 3 EPL matches, setting a new record for the achievement. They’ve looked solid despite selling their striker Ivan Toney in the summer, with Mbuemo already on 5 goals and Carvalho getting in the mix with a goal and an assist so far across all competitions.
Brentford have been solid at home, especially against the medium/smaller clubs, and are ranked 3rd at home this season.
Brentford now play at home to last place Wolves, who are 0-1-5 in the league and out of the EFL Cup. To be fair, they’ve had a tough schedule, although it doesn’t look to get much easier, taking on Man City after Brentford. Although they’re 14th in goals per match, they’re bigger issues in defense, as they’re last for goals conceded, although the 2-6 loss to Chelsea doesn’t help that stat.
Pick #3: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline +120 (Oct. 6, 2024; 11:30 p.m. EST):
For my final bet, I’m again backing my Spurs, this time to get the win on the road against another high-flying team in Brighton.
If nothing else, this should be one of the most exciting matches of the week, with both coaches employing an attack-heavy style while playing a high press, prioritizing winning the ball back higher up the field and getting shots on target, sometimes at the expense of leaving themselves open at the back.
This could lead for a fun match with plenty of shots for each side.
Brighton have looked good under Hürzeler, only getting their first loss in their last EPL match against Chelsea. They’ve only won 1 of their last 5 matches and have drawn at home to Ipswich and Nottingham Forest.
Spurs are on an excellent run of form, winning their last 5 matches across all competitions, including two important Europa League wins and the win away at Manchester United.
Tottenham are set to be without star man Heung-Min Son, with that news dropping this morning and adjusting the line in favor of Brighton. Spurs also played midweek while Brighton got rest, although Spurs rotated players. I think this line continues to shift closer to kickoff as that news spreads and doubt about Tottenham grows, so I expect this to end closer to +135 on Sunday.
Looking for a goalscorer? Brennan Johnson is in excellent form, scoring in each of Spurs last 5 matches. Brennan Johnson to Score Anytime +190.
I also like Dominic Solanke to Score Anytime +135.
Bonus:
Here are some other leans I have this week in the EPL:
Bournemouth Moneyline +115
Newcastle Moneyline +130
Aston Villa Moneyline +120
Across the Globe:
Grasshoppers Moneyline +130 (Switzerland; Swiss Super League)
AIK Moneyline -105 (Sweden; Allsvenskan)
PSG Moneyline -145 (France; Ligue 1)
AC Milan Moneyline +120 (Italy; Serie A)
River Plate Moneyline -110 (Argentina; Liga Profesional)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 10-8
Across the Globe: 17-16
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