Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
It’s been a long international break without club football that saw some big soccer news, including Mauricio Pochettino’s first matches as USMNT head coach, and the English National Team hiring German coach Thomas Tuchel. Now, however, we’re ready to get back to routine club football.
Last matchweek was a bit unpredictable. We saw an 8-goal thriller between Brentford and Wolves, Leicester got their first win of the season, Manchester United drew 0-0 with Villa in a strange result that may have saved Erik Ten Hag his job, and Tottenham went up 2-0 in the first half, only to fall apart in the second and lose 2-3 to Brighton.
Our main bets did fine, going 2-1, winning Brentford and West Ham, losing Tottenham after that second half collapse.
Where it really gets rough is the Bonus section and Across the Globe section. All of my bonus leans were off and, for I believe the first time ever, we lost every one of our Across the Globe bets. Oof.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 8 gives us 3 days of action, with the final match falling on Monday at 3:00 p.m. EST. The marquee matchup this weekend is Liverpool hosting Chelsea. We also have tough fights for clubs near the bottom of the table, with Ipswich Town hosting Everton and Southampton hosting Leicester City.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Leicester City to Win Either Half +100 (Oct. , 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Leicester finally got their first win of the season to get some positive momentum going into the international break. Now I’m backing them just to win either half against a struggling Southampton, who are 0-1-6 to start the season.
Leicester have won either half in 3 of their last 5 EPL matches, despite only winning one of them.
Southampton are struggling for form, having only drawn once to Ipswich Town, losing the rest of their games. I predict a cagey fight between these two sides, who both are scoring goals, just not winning matches, but expect Leicester to win at least a half.
Pick #2: Arsenal Moneyline -135 (Oct. 19, 2024; 12:30 p.m. EST):
For this next bet we’re keeping it simple and backing one of the title favorites to win on the road to Bournemouth.
Arsenal may be without star boy Saka and face a tough Champions League clash against Shakhtar Donetsk, although they’ll face them at home rather than playing away, which would be in Germany due to the war in Ukraine.
The risk of rotation of players and the fact that it’s an away fixture seem to really inflate the odds here for Arsenal. Bournemouth have been okay to start the year but have really struggled against the bigger clubs.
Arteta, Arsenal’s coach, hasn’t had a history of heavily rotating players like a certain other manager he trained under (ahem… Pep Guardiola at Man City), and have the depth to outclass Bournemouth even if they do rest a player or two.
Further, if Arsenal win today, they’ll end the day at the top of the table.
We’ll rarely see odds for Arsenal be this good when facing a bottom-half team, jump on it while it’s here!
Pick #3: Crystal Palace to Win Either Half -105 (Oct. 21, 2024; 3:00 p.m. EST):
If you followed me last year, you’ll be familiar with this bet, as I hammered CP to win either half during their strong run at the end of last season.
This season, they’ve really let me down despite me being so high on them to start the season. Things haven’t clicked yet, perhaps the international break was what they needed to turn things around.
Crystal Palace under Oliver Glasner have favored front-foot, attacking football while staying pragmatic and not overextending themselves. Their opponents, Nottingham Forest, play defensively under head coach Nuno Espirito Santos. Their defensive pragmatism and a decent run of scoring has allowed them to secure decent results against the bigger clubs, including a win against Liverpool at Anfield and draws with Brighton and Chelsea, both on the road.
Nottingham Forest will be tough but this is the game I expect Crystal Palace to turn things around.
Bonus:
Looking for a player prop? This weekend I’m on Liam Delap to Score or Assist +125. He has 3 goals in the last two games and 4 in their last 5 games. Although he doesn’t have an assist yet this season, I prefer the additional chance of an assist rather than taking him to score anytime at +150.
Across the Globe:
RB Leipzig Moneyline -110 (Germany; Bundesliga)
PSV Eindhoven Moneyline +110 (Netherlands; Eredivisie)
Olympique Marseille -135 (France; Ligue 1)
Inter Milan Moneyline -120 (Italy; Serie A)
Royal Antwerp Moneyline +125 (Belgium; Pro League)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 12-9
Across the Globe: 17-21
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