Welcome to English Premier League Soccer Best Bets, where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches, providing quality content that is accessible to new fans and engaging to old and new fans alike.
For an overview of what to expect in this Bettor in Green Article Series, check out my EPL Season Preview and Futures article here.
Recap:
The headline from matchweek 8 in the EPL is Bournemouth’s 2-0 win over Arsenal, who got a red card and had to play down a man for 2/3 of the match.
Elsewhere, Leicester City got their second win in a row, coming back from 2-0 down to beat Southampton 2-3 while on the road. Tottenham thumped West Ham 4-1 and Liverpool beat Chelsea in the big match on Sunday.
Our Best Bets went 1-2, losing out on Arsenal Moneyline and Crystal Palace to win Either Half, winning Leicester to win Either Half. I’ve been way too optimistic about CP but their performance this week has officially placed them on my “Do Not Bet” list until they give me a reason to bet them again.
Two weeks ago we, amazingly, lost every Across the Globe bet. We bounced back in strong fashion this week, going 4-1, only losing Royal Antwerp.
Upcoming Matches:
Matchweek 9 kicks off on Friday at 3:00 p.m. EST (shortly after this article is released) with Leicester City hosting Nottingham Forest. Saturday’s matches don’t begin until 10:00 a.m. EST, so no early morning kickoff this weekend.
Sunday gives us 3 exciting matches at 10:00 a.m. EST, culminating in the big match of the weekend, Arsenal hosting Liverpool at 12:30 p.m. EST.
Let’s get to the bets:
Best Bets:
Pick #1: Aston Villa Moneyline -120 (Oct. 26, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
For our first bet we’re backing an in-form Aston Villa team while fading Bournemouth on the back of their big win against Arsenal.
Aston Villa haven’t lost a match in all competitions since losing to Arsenal in Matchweek 2. They sit at the very top of the Champions League table after 3 matches in that competition and don’t look like slowing down. In their 10-match unbeaten run, they’ve won 8 and had 2 draws.
Villa are in a tough run with games every 3-4 days since the return from international break until the next one in mid-November. They play Champions League, Premier League, and have an EFL Cup fixture against Crystal Palace. Sometimes I like to fade teams with busy and tough schedules, but the coaching of Unai Emery, the rotation and depth in a couple key positions, and the defensive resilience of World Cup-winning keeper Emi Martinez make it hard for me to fade this team.
Bournemouth are coming off a big home win to Arsenal and, although they don’t have as many matches as Villa, they’re in a tough run themselves with Arsenal, Villa, then Man City. Their road form leaves a bit to be desired and I think the confidence from the Arsenal match will fade quickly if Villa get the first goal.
Pick #2: Tottenham Hotspur Moneyline -120 (Oct. 27, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
As stated above, Crystal Palace have found themselves on my “Do Not Bet” list and are the first club to land there for me this season (although I arguably need to add Atletico Madrid to that list as well). I’m pretty disappointed, as I backed CP to finish in the top half this season and they’ve continued to let me down.
A team that hasn’t let me down so much this year are my beloved Tottenham Hotspur. They’ve won 7 of 8 since they lost to Arsenal in the North London Derby, with the only loss being the 2nd half breakdown at Brighton. They sit 2nd in the Europa League standings and have scored in every match since last May, except for the loss to Arsenal.
Tottenham, off a home victory Thursday in the Europa League with a heavily-rotated squad, now travel across London to Crystal Palace. CP have not been solid at home and, while Spurs have looked better at home, their away form has been good as well.
Both teams face a tough EFL Cup in the middle of next week, with Tottenham hosting Man City and CP traveling to Villa.
Crystal Palace could desperately use a win and Tottenham’s defensive struggles may lead to an early goal, but Spurs are relentless with getting shots and CP have struggled to keep clean sheets with Henderson in goal.
Pick #3: Chelsea Moneyline -135 (Oct. 27, 2024; 10:00 a.m. EST):
Similar to my strategy for the other Best Bets this week, we’re backing a team in better form, regardless of number of recent matches played.
Chelsea finally look like a team with identity and somewhat established depth under Enzo Maresca. They won comfortably on Thursday in the UEFA Conference League against Panathinaikos with a heavily-rotated squad, scoring 4 goals in the process. In their last 10 matches, they’re 6-2-2, scoring at least 1 goal in all 10.
Newcastle, on the other hand, have not had quite as impressive of a start as desired, starting 3-3-2 and currently in 9th.
A bigger concern for Newcastle are the injuries, taking away some key players and lacking depth across the field.
To Newcastle’s credit, they aren’t letting in too many goals (they’re 3rd for goals conceded in the EPL), but have struggled to score them as well and are 15th in goals per match, whereas Chelsea are 3rd for goals per match.
Bonus:
Looking to bet on Arsenal and Liverpool? I lean Liverpool on the moneyline but really anticipate a hard-fought defensive matchup here. Liverpool have only conceded 3 goals in the EPL this season (the fewest of any team) while Arsenal have only let in 8, which is tied for 3rd fewest in the EPL.
Anticipating a defensive and conservative match, I’ll be on Under 2.5 Goals -110 and on 1st Half Draw +115.
Across the Globe:
Villarreal Moneyline -105 (Spain; La Liga)
Girona Moneyline +145 (Spain; La Liga)
Orlando City Moneyline -130 (United Stares; MLS)
Inter Milan Moneyline -130 (Italy; Serie A)
AS Monaco Moneyline +125 (France; Ligue 1)
Santos Moneyline -120 (Brazil; Serie B)
Season Record:
Best Bets: 13-10
Across the Globe: 21-22
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