Welcome to English Premier League Best Bets, a Bettor in Green article series where we break down the latest action in the English Premier League (EPL) and my favorite bets for the upcoming matches.
What to Expect from this Series:
First and foremost, this is a Bettor in Green series, so our focus will be betting on the EPL. In each article, I’ll provide 3 of my favorite bets for the upcoming matchweek, aiming to keep the odds roughly between -150 and +150. I’ll break down each of the 3 main bets and provide my analysis for taking each bet.
I often play moneylines and a few other gameline-type bets, occasionally dabbling in player props or other bet types. I’ll usually throw in a Bonus Bet or two for each article, often with longer odds or on a player prop, for those looking for something a little more interesting.
Finally, at the end of each article, I’ll look beyond the EPL and provide some of my favorite lines for soccer matches taking place across the globe.
In addition to discussing betting, I’ll also discuss the Premier League as a whole as the drama of the season unfolds. I try to curate my content toward a wide audience, aiming to provide quality content to engage the hardcore fan while also making the EPL, and soccer generally, accessible to the new fan who may be engaging with the sport for the first time.
Premier League Season Preview:
The start of the EPL season is almost here, kicking off on August 16, 2024 at 3:00 p.m. EST. With 20 clubs in the league, each club will play the other 19 clubs twice, once home and once away, for a 38 matchweek season ending on May 25, 2025. You can watch the EPL in the US on NBC and Peacock.
Unlike traditional American sports, the EPL uses a system of promotion and relegation, so the bottom three teams from each season go down to the second tier for the following season, with 3 clubs coming up to the Premier League.
This year, Leicester City and Southampton come right back up after one season in the second tier, while Ipswich Town make their first appearance in the Premier League in 22 years.
Manchester City are still the favorite to win the title again but many seem to think this could be the year Arsenal finally reclaim the top spot. Clubs like Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Brighton, etc. have new managers (head coaches) and the transfer window is still open. One thing’s for sure, we won’t be short on action this season!
Premier League Futures:
Without further ado, let’s get to some betting.
Last season I started this article series in matchweek 25 out of 38, ultimately ending with a record of 25-22-1 for my main bets and 32-33-1 Across the Globe (referred to as “Around the Grounds” last season). I'm locked in and ready to do better this season. Since I’m catching this season at the beginning, I thought I’d share some futures:
Future #1: Manchester City to Win the League +140:
Many pundits and media seem to think this will be the year Arsenal finally usurp Manchester City after having come close in title pushes over the last two seasons. Vegas seems to think it’s possible, putting Arsenal not far behind Man City as the favorite.
I do anticipate a strong challenge again from Arsenal and, if history repeats itself I’ll likely be sweating out this future around Christmas, but Man City will have a strong title push in the spring to win the league again.
They’ve won the EPL 6 out of the last 7 times and this is potentially Pep Guardiola’s last season in charge, so I think they’ll give it their all when it matters most.
Man City face charges for breaking financial profitability and sustainability rules, potentially resulting in points deductions if found guilty, but until proven I won’t let that hold me back from betting on their success on the pitch.
The best line I’ve found for this is +140 from Draft Kings, with the line set around +120 elsewhere.
Future #2: Crystal Palace to Finish Top 10:
For this next future I look at the mid-table with Crystal Palace to finish in the top half.
I was high on Palace since they appointed Oliver Glasner midway through last season, successfully betting on them 3 or 4 times in this article series last season.
They’ve lost a key player in Michael Olise and may yet lose Guehi, but if they can keep him, I think they can continue to build on the success under Glasner, despite lacking Olise. They’ve done good business to bring in reinforcements (Kamada from Lazio; Sarr from Marseille) and this manager should be able to put those pieces together for a strong campaign, maybe pushing for a European Competition place (Top 7-8).
The best line I’ve found for this is +138 from ESPN Bet, while it seems to be +100 elsewhere.
Future #3: Ipswich Town to be Relegated:
Turning now to the bottom 3 in the table with the “To Be Relegated” market. I couldn’t find this everywhere, but did have luck with ESPN Bet and Fanatics.
The Premier League is shaping up to be tough this year, with other promoted teams Southampton and Leicester having come immediately back to the EPL following their relegation. Ipswich Town haven’t been in the top flight in over 2 decades and I fear it will be a tough challenge for them.
To their credit, they’ve been phenomenal on and off the pitch since a partial club takeover in 2021, securing promotion from the 3rd tier and then immediately securing promotion to the EPL from the 2nd tier.
But now they’re at the top, competing with the best, a group that have all had much more recent experience in the top flight than they have. Their coach is apparently pretty highly-rated and they secured their top transfer target for the season, I just don’t see it being enough to stay up.
The best line I’ve found for this bet is -110 from Fanatics, while ESPN Bet has it at -150.
Bonus Futures - Tottenham Bets:
I don’t particularly hide the fact that I’m a Tottenham supporter in my coverage of the EPL. I try to remain pragmatic with my betting but, while I follow the league as a whole, I follow Tottenham the closest and feel I know their capabilities better than some of the other clubs.
That being said, I’m also on these Tottenham Hotspur futures this season:
Tottenham to Finish Top 6: -175 from ESPN Bet or Draft Kings (-200 or worse elsewhere).
Tottenham Top 4: +200 on most books (+155 on Fan Duel)
Dominic Solanke Top Team Scorer: +120 on ESPN Bet. — Solanke just transferred from Bournemouth and Tottenham finally have the true striker they’ve been seeking. I expect him to fit in well with Ange Postecoglou’s system and get plenty of service from the likes of Son, Madison, Kulusevski, and Johnson.
Enjoy the season and stay tuned each matchweek for a new article analyzing the upcoming matches and best bets!
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