Every year, familiar faces move in the offseason. Lets break down whose stock went up, down, or stayed the same!
Upgrades
Kirk Cousins -Atlanta Falcons
Kirk loses his safety blanket in Jefferson but gains a deeper receiving core, better running backs, and possibly the best offensive line of his career. He is going to have an uphill battle learning a new system and rehabbing a torn achilles, so while he is in a better situation, I would temper my expectations for year one. He should be valued as a low end QB1/QB2.
Calvin Ridley - Tennessee Titans
Ridley wasn’t working out in Jacksonville but showed flashes of his elite ability. He now goes to a team where he will be the number one and don’t even try to tell me an aged out Hopkins is going to edge out Ridley. Henry is gone, along with the old coaching staff, so an increase in passing percentage is nearly certain. Ridley is going to go way later than he should in drafts this year. Ridley will finish somewhere in the WR 2 range once the season ends.
Marquise Brown - Kansas City Chiefs
Going from any QB to Patrick Mahomes is an upgrade. He will fall around 3rd in the pecking order as Rice likely see’s the most targets among WR’s and Kelce is inevitable. Brown will see all the deep targets MVS vacated with some additional looks as well. Brown took a one year deal with the best QB in the NFL to revitalize his career and give him another chance to secure the bag. Staying healthy will be, and always has been, his biggest obstacle.
Derrick Henry - Baltimore Ravens
Henry will be behind the best offensive line of his career on a team that has a defense to keep running the ball as an option the entire game. I’m not concerned with Lamar stealing any yards or TD’s away. RB’s don’t last long at his age and the Ravens have had some terrible injury luck with their backs in recent history. Henry has potential to be an RB1 but I would feel better with his as my 2.
D’Andre Swift - Chicago Bears
If any move is being slept on this offseason, it’s this one. Swift played 16 games and had the most carries and yards of his career last year. Swift had numerous TD’s vultured by Hurts and the famous tush push. He may downgrade at offensive line, but the Bears have a decent line themselves. Johnson and Herbert proved not to be the answer and the Bears overpaid to bring in Swift to be their guy. With an expected rookie QB, Swift will be relied on early and often as well as being a popular dump off option for Williams. Swift should finish as a RB 2 again.
Jerry Jeudy - Cleveland Browns
Jeudy gets to play with the best QB of his career in Watson after a brutal stint in Denver. Jeudy is in a perfect spot where he has Cooper to draw some attention away while not being paired with a superstar so dominant, that he fails to see many targets. Chubb will still be working his way back from an injury and I expect an uptick in passing rate. Jeudy knows he will move from what Steve Smith called him a “JAG” to a bust if he can’t make it work in Cleveland.
Lateral Moves
Saquon Barkley - Philadelphia Eagles
Barkley gets an upgrade at offensive line and that is enough to keep him out of the downgrade category. Now he will have to deal with the RB by committee approach the Eagles have, even after they released a number of backs. The most troubling is the vultured TD’s by Hurts. Swift played 16 games and had over 1,000 yards but 5 TD’s kept him from being a weekly startable asset. This move is not the move casuals think it is.
Josh Jacobs - Green Bay Packers
Jacobs will be the head back but will be splitting carries with resigned AJ Dillon. I don’t see a big difference in line quality but there is a slight improvement in coaching. He will have to learn a new system and is another year older. Jacobs likely finishes in the mid to low end RB 2 range.
Aaron Jones - Minnesota Vikings
Jones is going to need to learn a new system but there isn’t a lot of change for RB’s. He will get more work in Minnesota and should see plenty of targets as well. The increase in usage is offset by the QB concerns that will result in an increase in short drives. Jones will be a reliable flex option that could make his way into the starting rotation.
Gus Edwards - Los Angeles Chargers
Gus Edwards moves to a worse line, on a worse team, and has never been consistently reliable. He should see a more consistent stream of work in Los Angeles but is not as talented as some may believe. The increase in usage is what will make him draftable and a spot start in 2024.
Zack Moss - Cincinnati Bengals
Moss won’t have to compete with Taylor anymore and Mixon is out of town so he should see plenty of work. Like Edwards above, Moss seems like a temporary replacement player for the Bengals. Moss has shown flashes but I have serious concerns about him remaining relevant over the course of the season. His position on a high scoring team makes him interesting.
Diontae Johnson - Carolina Panthers
How could you downgrade Johnson when the biggest knock on him before was being linked to poor QB play? He should see much of the same in Carolina. He’ll be the #1 receiver on his team but nothing more than a spot flex play throughout the season.
Downgrades
Mike Wiliams - New York Jets
Rodgers or not, Williams is going to be downgrading at QB. He has also had a long history of injuries and playing on the MetLife Field that is notoriously bad for injuries isn’t going to help his case. I’m avoid Williams like the plague this year.
Gabe Davis- Jacksonville Jaguars
Gabe Davis was inconsistent in Buffalo with Josh Allen and now he gets to take on the same inconsistent role that Ridley played last season. Davis has shown he isn’t that guy and now with a downgrade at QB, Davis is a strong fade.
Tony Pollard - Tennessee Titans
Yay! Tony Pollard in the Derrick Henry Role! Yeah, a few things about that. He is going to a worse offensive line and wasn’t necessarily good when he was the starter in Dallas. There is a new coaching staff so the guaranteed run heavy offense isn’t so guaranteed. Pollard isn’t Henry, and I wouldn’t trust Pollard to be anything more than a flex.
Austin Ekeler - Washington Commanders
The best description for Ekelers new role is Ekelers role back when the Chargers were starting Gordon. He will be the primary pass catching back and have limited rushing attempts as that will fall on Brian “50 cent” Robinson. Ekeler will still be useful in PPR formats but the past few years version of Ekeler is gone.
Keenan Allen - Chicago Bears
Allen, like Williams, is downgrading at QB and even more so as he will have a rookie with question marks throwing him the ball. He is still very talented and will be a good combo with DJ Moore. He’s another year older and it would be hard for anyone to argue he hasn’t had a big downgrade for fantasy.
Russell Wilson/Justin Fields - Pittsburgh Steelers
Let the Wilson and Fields feud begin. Both were major disappointments last year and will want to turn it around in Pitt. The coaching staff and the fans will be clamoring for the other QB using the starter as a scapegoat. I don’t see either QB being relevant for fantasy.
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