If you bought our Draft Guide last season then you know about the BPGS 2.0 Fantasy Player Grading. If not, The BPGS 2.0 has 8 sections of criteria that adds up to 7 points regardless of position. The higher the number, the better and safer a player should be. The BPGS 2.0's main goal is NOT to order your player rankings, as multiple players may share the same score and there is no tiebreaker. The system's purpose is to analyze a player's opportunity/situation and run it against a risk assessment, giving a numerical value to a player's upcoming season.
Nowhere else has this system because we created it! So how accurate was the BPGS 2.0 in its second season?
It yielded a 11-9 (55%) record straight up and a 13-7 (65%) record with a standard deviation of +/-5. The standard deviation is the more precise method as the system is to generalize if a player will finish higher or lower than their consensus ranking.
The QB (3-1), RB (4-1), and the WR (5-3) positions all saw the system to be very effective, where as the TE position was less effective going just 1-2. There was no shared common factor among the 7 who failed to meet the BPGS's expectations . Some were due to coaching decisions, some to injury, and some just fell flat. With these findings, there is no need to make any changes to the current model. No system is going to be 100% accurate and a 65% rate shows it to be an effective system when grading a fantasy player.
Of the 7 players who failed to meet expectations, 5 were breakout candidates and 2 were bust candidates. The system proved to work extremely well when predicting busts as it was able to accurately predict a player to bust at a rate of 75%. Breakout rates were also effective with a 58% accuracy rate.
Without making changes to the current model, we can get another year of data to further track the accuracy of the BPGS 2.0. The ONLY place that you can get more information and the current BPGS player scores for the upcoming fantasy football season is through our 2024 Bettor in Green Draft Guide releasing in July. Be sure to follow us on socials and keep up to date as we release more info in the near future.
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