The week started off promising with a 2-0 record on the slate. Chris Sale did not pitch on Monday and was instead pushed to Tuesday where he still finished below his line of outs recorded. Mitchell Parker and Byron Buxton hit their lines with relative ease and made Monday a positive night of betting. Now I look to replicate the same winning formula for today.
The slate of props is vast and it is my job to find the best three props for tonight. Let's continue the week with some wins with these props.
Corbin Burnes Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)
Corbin Burnes has positioned himself into the AL Cy Young race once again with his stellar play. His ERA is at 2.32 with a WHIP of 1.02, Burnes has been excellent this season and tonight he faces a Chicago Cubs team struggling to stay afloat. The Cubs had high hopes heading into the season, but they are currently 43-49 and sitting in last place in the NL Central.
A big issue for the Cubs this season is the hitting. They are in the bottom 10 of the league in AVG, SLG, and K%. They also maintain a wRC+ below league average at 95. This was supposed to be a competitive year for the Cubs, but things have not worked out that way and they might be sellers at the deadline.
The Orioles are a contrast as they rank in the top 5 in certain pitching categories, such as ERA, WHIP, and OBA. Burnes has been the catalyst for this team's pitching staff and continues to showcase his dominance. Burnes gets to face a struggling Cubs lineup at home, where he takes care of business with a 1.78 ERA. Take the under earned runs and expect it to turn green.
Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140)
I have been looking at this game between the New York Mets versus the Washington Nationals for the longest. I knew I wanted to fade Patrick Corbin in some capacity tonight. The Mets demolish left-handed pitchers, as they rank in the top three in SLG, OPS, and wRC+. They faced Corbin a few weeks ago and roughed it up when he allowed 6 earned runs and 7 hits.
The issue that arose was I couldn't find an exact prop for Corbin that I truly liked. I then shifted my focus to the Mets' hitters. I looked through the usual suspects in their lineup, but one name stood out and that was Mark Vientos.
The 24-year-old third baseman has been trying to etch his name into the lineup for a few years now and is looking as if he is finally putting it together. Vientos is batting .287 with 11 home runs and a .874 OPS. However, he is even better against lefties.
In 65 at-bats versus lefties this season, Vientos is batting .338 with an astounding 1.056 OPS. In the previous matchup against Corbin and the Nationals, Vientos went 1-4 with a run and RBI. That is all we need for him to hit this over. His line for a home run does seem a bit lower than usual, as it is placed at +350. I think Vientos is the best value look for the Mets' batters tonight against Corbin and the Nationals.
Michael King Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
I like Michael King in this matchup, but this really boils down to the inept Mariners bats. The Mariners might have the worst lineup in all of baseball despite some of the talent they have. It is boggling everyone's minds how this Mariners team is 50-43 and in first place of the AL West when you look at the numbers.
The Mariners have the worst batting average and the highest K%. They just can't seem to see the ball well at all. They strike out with ease and King should take advantage of that. King recently played against the 2nd highest K% squad in the Oakland Athletics and managed 12ks.
The line being set at 6.5 is a little scary since King has had outings finishing just below the line. However, the Mariners are the perfect matchup to exceed this number. I wouldn't mind sprinkling a 9+ strikeout prop for King as well with that line being set +240. There is a reason for the line being placed here and I think it is one you just have to take with the juiciest of matchups at play.
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