The weekend has arrived, which means it is time to make some money. Wednesday was a massive success. The card was a full sweep as we went 3-0 on the props. There were moments with Bobby Witt Jr. that made me nervous, but he prevailed in the bottom of the 9th. Today we look to go for another perfect round of prop betting.
The slate is looking large and ready to be utilized for our profit. The trade deadline is around the corner, so be careful of some players who might not go long in games or take it easy. With all that being said, here are the best three props to get the weekend bankroll flowing.
Nestor Cortes 5+ Hits Allowed (-225)
The biggest rivalry in baseball takes shape this weekend when the New York Yankees head up to Boston to take on the Red Sox in Fenway. The first pitcher to take the mound for the Yankees is Nestor Cortes and that might be a bad thing in reality. Cortes on the road versus at home are two different pitchers.
Cortes has a 2.48 ERA at home, but on the road it is alarming. His road ERA is a staggering 6.04 ERA with a .301 OBA. Furthermore, Fenway Park has a big dark cloud hanging over him. In six games at Fenway, Cortes has a 6.19 ERA. This is just a bad matchup throughout his career and it might continue tonight.
On the flip side of the coin, the Red Sox have been struggling a little bit. However, I still have faith in the lineup taking advantage of the Yankees who are in a tailspin with a pitcher on the bump who can't pitch on the road. Let's play it safe and roll with the 5+ hits allowed.
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-140)
Bobby Witt Jr. might be the good luck charm, so why not roll with him again? The man is on fire at the plate. He is continuing to hit at a phenomenal rate and gets on base at will. Outside of one game, Witt has hit this over and in the one game in question, he finished at 2 hits + runs + RBIs.
There are two main reasons why I must play this prop again. One reason is that he is playing at home once more, where he is the best hitter in baseball. A .414 AVG at home is simply ridiculous. Then there is the starting pitcher for the Chicago Cubs.
Kyle Hendricks has been horrible this year and batters can sense it. The veteran pitcher has a 6.69 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Somehow, his ERA on the road is worse. Hendrick's road ERA is up to 7.08 in 9 games. He can't seem to shake off the struggles that have been plaguing him all season long, especially on the road.
I expect Witt to start early and maybe even hit one out of the park (+340). The 2.5 line will always be scary for a hitter, but when it is the hottest hitter in the sport, I think it is a must-play.
Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
The Tampa Bay Rays made a big move last night when they traded away Randy Arozarena to the Seattle Mariners. The Rays are looking to sell off some players, as they are not contenders this season. Nick Lodolo and the Cincinnati Reds head to Tampa Bay and face the new-look Rays offense.
Lodolo has faced some injuries, but he has overall been solid for the Reds. They look at him as a feature force in their starting rotation. The one thing Lodolo is excellent at is striking batters out. He is currently ranked in the 69th percentile or better in K%, Whiff%, and Chase%, respectively.
The Rays struggle with striking out, especially against left-handed pitchers. The Rays are the 4th worst team in K% versus lefties in all of MLB. Then you take it further with their inept hitting at home.
The Rays ballpark is known to be some hitter's nightmare. The case can be made that it hinders the home team as well. As of today, the Rays are bottom three in strikeouts, AVG, and OPS at home. This is where Lodolo thrives.
At home, Lodolo has a 4.05 ERA with a .257 OBA. On the road, Lodolo is an All-Star caliber pitcher with a 2.84 ERA and OBA of .173. I think the new-look Rays offense might struggle and Lodolo fans a bunch and hits the over.
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