A new week has arrived, which means new money is to be made. After a 3-0 sweep on Wednesday, Friday was almost the opposite. Bobby Witt Jr. was close to hitting his over, but Nick Lodolo was a bad read on my part. A 1-2 record to end the week is not ideal, but that is how the dominoes fall sometimes.
The board for Monday is not as spacious, but there are some interesting matchups that I want to take a deeper look at. Let's start the betting week with a big bang. Here are the best three props for today.
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
After a devastating series loss to their rivals in the New York Yankees over the weekend, the Boston Red Sox get to host the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox and Mariners are both in the midst of struggles that are dropping down in the standings of the American League. The Red Sox are out of the wild card race by a small margin, while the Mariners coughed up a big division lead to the Houston Astros, who have now tied them for the division. This is going to be an interesting series with both teams needing the upper hand.
I believe that the Mariners might be the ones to get that upper hand tonight with Logan Gilbert on the bump. Gilbert has been pretty good in July and has eclipsed this in strikeouts in each of his previous four starts this month. Then when you take a look at his road numbers they are better than his home numbers. Gilbert has a 2.57 ERA on the road compared to his 2.89 ERA at home.
The Red Sox are a good hitting team in terms of AVG and OPS, but they do tend to strike out at a high rate. They are in the top 5 of K% but are 2nd in K% at home. Any other pitcher prop versus the Red Sox is dangerous because they do generate runs, but strikeouts are one hiccup on that end. I think Gilbert ends his strong month with at least 6 strikeouts against this Red Sox lineup.
Paul Skenes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-180)
Paul Skenes is a phenom. He has taken the league by storm and he wasn't even on the opening day roster for the Pittsburgh Pirates. His numbers are insane and he has a chance at this pace to even win the NL Cy Young. However, instead of looking at his strikeouts, I decided to shift to his under on walks.
I wanted to find a reason to go with the over 7.5 strikeouts, but the Houston Astros are one of the best teams in baseball in K%. However, their BB% is the 3rd-worst in MLB at 7.1%. This team likes to put the ball in play and does not work counts. Then when you look at Skenes and his pitching BB%, he ranks in the 94th percentile.
I would not be surprised if Skenes pitches lights out and goes for 10 strikeouts in his first matchup against the Astros. On the contrary, I can see him pitching a gem, but finishing with 6 or 7 strikeouts and missing out on the over by a small margin. I went with the safer prop and took the under on walks, which should turn green fairly easily.
Mitchell Parker Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-135)
When you look at team splits versus left-handed pitchers, the Arizona Diamondbacks are going to be one of the top teams in most categories. They are in the top 10 in AVG, OPS, wRC+, and a plethora of other stats. The Diamondbacks are lethal against lefties and have a perfect matchup today against Mitchell Parker and the Washington Nationals.
Parker had a solid start to the season, but he has been in a tailspin over the past month. In four starts in July, Parker has a 9.19 ERA and OBA of .300. His road splits are also alarming with his ERA being 4.91. Parker is struggling and the D-Backs could take advantage.
I almost went with his hits allowed, but he might throw in a few walks to get the runners on base and I rather take my chances with the earned runs prop. 2.5 earned runs for a struggling pitcher against a lineup that eats up lefties is the perfect recipe.
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