Happy Friday to everyone and hope you all had a wonderful 4th of July. Monday was another 2-1 night with Mitchell Parker only allowing 5 hits before being taken out at the start of the 7th inning. Jared Jones cashed out in the 1st inning, while Michael Wacha was lights out. It was overall another good outing on the betting front.
Today is another loaded slate with some high-level pitchers taking the bump. There are tons of props to choose from. Here are the best three props of the day. Let's make some money before the weekend.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Tonight is the start of a critical series for the Atlanta Braves. They will take on the Philadelphia Phillies, who are 9 games ahead of them in the NL East standings. This series can be the beginning of a run for the Braves to get back into the divisional race. The man to start things off is going to be Max Fried, who is having a good season.
Fried is at a 7-3 record and a 2.91 ERA. The Braves need Fried and the rest of the pitching staff to carry an offense that has been struggling for over a month. I have faith that Fried will carry them today with an exceptional start.
The Phillies are without Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber, which has cooled down this hot offense. In the last 15 days, the Phillies have 117 strikeouts, which is 6th in MLB during that timeframe. Furthermore, the Phillies tend to whiff more against left-handed pitchers than right-handed pitchers. They have a K% of 23.1%, which is in the top 10 in all of baseball.
Fried is not a huge strikeout pitcher but can garner a high mark if he gets it going. The Phillies are not going to have their A lineup. Fried should be able to take advantage of that and exceed 5 Ks.
Kevin Gausman Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-175)
I talked about my disdain for the Toronto Blue Jays a few articles ago about how they need to be banned for costing me way too much money. However, it is time for a change of heart. I love this prop for Kevin Gausman today, despite his struggles this season.
Gausman was an All-Star last season and even finished in the top 3 for AL Cy Young voting. However, this year has been rough, as he is posting a 4.75 ERA. I think today he bounces back due to who he is facing.
Gausman and the Blue Jays travel to Seattle and face the Mariners and that dismal offense. The Mariners strike out more than any team in the league, while also obtaining the worst batting average. They can't hit and Gausman should take advantage of their struggles, especially on the road.
When you look at Gausman's home and road splits, they are very different. In 9 starts at home, Gausman has a 7.19 ERA and OBA of .319. In 8 starts on the road, Gausman has a 2.22 ERA and OBA of .201. That is such a drastic split between home and road starts.
The strikeout total is of course going to be high versus the Mariners, but I think he can easily go six strong innings. This is by far my favorite prop of the day.
Tyler Glasnow 7+ Strikeouts (-210)
The last start for Tyler Glasnow was atrocious. He allowed 7 hits and 5 earned runs, but the most alarming stat was the strikeouts. He only finished with 1 strikeout, which is easily a season-low for the year. Before that game, Glasnow had 5 consecutive starts of 8 or more Ks.
Tonight he faces the Milwaukee Brewers, who are a good team and only 15th in K%. However, I think Glasnow has a major bounce-back game tonight. His Whiff% is in the 86th percentile, while his K% is in the 96th percentile. It does not matter the opponent, Glasnow is usually going to generate a lot of whiffs.
The 7.5 line does scare me just because of how high of a number that is, but I wouldn't mind sprinkling in a 10+ Ks (+290). This is the perfect spot for Glasnow to regain his Cy Young form and it starts with how many strikeouts is he going to get tonight, which I think is a lot. Play it safe with the 7+, but take a sprinkle for 10+ for about half a unit.
コメント