I hope everyone had a great weekend of winning bets as a new week has arrived. Friday was a 2-1 night after Ryne Nelson was lights out against the Phillies. Luckily, Garrett Crochet was taken out early and Jose Berrios was stellar on the mound. Tonight we look for even more success with player props.
Not every team is playing tonight, but there are still enough props that have my attention. The money is right there; we must go out and reach for it. I found three props that should start the week just right and put us in the green.
Luis Gil Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
The whole world knows that the Chicago White Sox is a dumpster fire at the moment. The losing streak combined with their overall record puts them in the tier of one of the worst teams in MLB history. They struggle to hit, pitch, and field. If the matchup presents itself, I will undoubtedly fade them. Tonight is one of those nights where I want to fade them.
The New York Yankees go to Chicago and Luis Gil gets the nod to start the series. Gil has had an excellent rookie campaign. The young pitcher has a 3.06 ERA and 138 strikeouts. Despite the success, he did suffer a few mishaps throughout the season, but he is picking it back up.
After looking through his props, I decided to roll with his over on strikeouts. The White Sox are in the bottom 10 of the league in K%, while Gil is in the 86th percentile in K%. Gil has also hit this over in 3 of his last 6 starts, but the Yankees bullpen is depleted for today's game, which means Gil might need to be out there a little bit longer than usual.
Gil has seen success against this White Sox team already this season with a 14-strikeout performance. I say take the over and expect a spectacular start against a historically bad team.
Freddy Peralta Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Freddy Peralta is a pitcher I have always admired, but this season has been a struggle. A lot of people thought this could be a big breakout season for Peralta, but it has been the opposite. He is top 10 in strikeouts, but he also owns a 4.02 ERA. That would be his worst ERA since 2019.
At first, I was tempted by his hits-allowed prop, but Peralta can walk batters rather easily and only allowed 4 hits for the entire game. I then decided his strikeouts were the ultimate play here. Peralta has faced the Los Angeles Dodgers before and that start did not end well. He only lasted 4 innings and allowed 3 walks with only 4 strikeouts. Now the Dodgers get back Mookie Betts tonight for a lineup that has some of the best hitters in baseball.
Furthermore, the Dodgers are only in the middle of the pack in terms of K% but are in second in BB%. The Dodgers can raise that pitch count and do it without striking out a ton. I can see Peralta having another rough outing against a Dodgers lineup that is adding a top 5 player in the league.
Brandon Pfaadt Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-165)
The Arizona Diamondbacks are on fire as of late. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games and only 3.5 games back of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West. After a subpar first half of the season, the D-Backs are in prime position for a playoff spot. They get to play a divisional foe in the Colorado Rockies.
The Rockies just pulled off an amazing comeback at home against the Atlanta Braves. That makes me want to fade their bats today. The Rockies outside of Colorado struggle immensely to hit. They are in the bottom 3 in AVG and OPS on the road. This team is not as bad as the White Sox, but they are still an awful squad you can easily fade.
Brandon Pfaadt is the man who gets the ball tonight for these D-Backs and he is a solid young pitcher. Pfaadt has a 3.52 ERA at home, which is better than his 3.92 ERA for the entire season. Pfaadt also pitched against this same Rockies team in Colorado earlier in the season and only allowed 5 hits and 1 earned run. Pfaadt has the stuff to shut down this Rockies offense and I think 6 hits is too much for him to allow.
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