Another weekend has arrived after sweating out a few prop bets across the week. Wednesday was a 2-1 night and was super close to fulfilling the perfect 3-0 sweep. DJ Herz pitched a pretty solid game and only allowed 4 hits when the line was at 4.5. Fading Tyler Anderson and Mitch Keller was the right move, as both props hit easily.
Today we look to ride that momentum and cash out some props for the weekend. Today, there are tons of props on the board that stand out. Here are the three best props for this fantastic Friday.
Paul Skenes Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-155)
Paul Skenes had a few props that stood out and for good reason. Despite being a rookie, who didn't get called up until May, has immersed himself as a sure-fire ace and Cy Young candidate. He also faces the worst-hitting team in the MLB, the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners are last in several hitting categories, such as AVG, OPS, K%, and others. The previous day saw the Mariners only muster 1 hit against the Detroit Tigers. This Mariners squad is the perfect one to fade. They can't hit against mediocre pitchers, but today they face an animal in Skenes.
However, Skenes has allowed this over in 3 straight starts, but this is the perfect team for him to bounce back. Also, there is a chance that the Pirates begin to scale back his pitch count with them being out of the playoff race for the most part.
I love Skenes in this matchup and thought the 8.5 strikeouts line was too high and went with the under hits allowed instead. The Mariners offense is a trainwreck and the right pitcher can exploit them. This is the matchup to exploit.
Patrick Corbin Over 6.5 Hits Allowed (-135)
The downfall of Patrick Corbin needs to be studied. After helping the Nationals win the World Series back in 2019, Corbin has become the worst pitcher in all of baseball. That downfall has continued into this season, as he is 2-12 with a 5.98 ERA and WHIP of 1.56, both of which are the worst in the MLB.
Tonight he faces a divisional foe in the Philadelphia Phillies, who might be finally clicking on offense. In back-to-back games, the Phillies have scored 9+ runs. After some brutal losses throughout this second half of the season, the Phillies are looking to regroup and Corbin is the best pitcher to face for some live batting practice.
The line being at 6.5 hits is a lot, but Corbin allowed 9 hits in his previous outing against the Phillies this year. Furthermore, he has allowed this over in 3 straight starts. The Nationals know the writing is on the wall with him and their season. They are not afraid to have him out there eating up innings to save some bullpen arms, regardless of whether he is allowing the other team to score a billion runs.
I know this is an astronomically high line, but the play is still perfect when you look at Corbin and where the Nationals stand with him and their season. Take the over and pray the Nationals don't have a kind heart and take him out earlier than usual.
Miles Mikolas Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
The Los Angeles Dodgers just got back Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, which gives me the belief that this offense is really about to start clicking on all cylinders. Tonight is the perfect night to test that thought against a struggling pitcher in Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Mikolas has a 5.30 ERA on the season, but it balloons when he pitches at home. His ERA at home is a staggering 6.38. He has also allowed 39 earned runs at home, which is the same amount he has allowed on the road, but in 4 fewer starts. The Dodgers excel everywhere, but let's focus on the road. They are in the top 5 in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ on the road. They are also in the top 8 in Hard-Hit%, in which Mikolas falls into the 30th percentile in.
In a previous matchup this year against the Dodgers, Mikolas gave up 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The Dodgers are a great team to hurt Mikolas. The 2.5 earned runs allowed prop could easily be bumped up to 3.5, but since it is at 2.5, it is a must-play.
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