Monday was not ideal, to say the least. An 0-3 record on Monday was very demoralizing, but we are here to pick up the pieces. However, I would like to say the Seattle Mariners are banned unless they are being faded. The team can't hit and their pitching staff is great only when you don't have money on them. They join the Tampa Rays on the ban list for the rest of the season.
Let's look forward to the teams and props we will be betting on. A few teams had the day off yesterday, which makes the slate today a little more robust. I found three props I truly love today and I think are must plays. Let's get the weekend rolling with some money-making props.
Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The Chicago White Sox are putting together a case of being one of the worst teams in MLB history. They are currently in the midst of a 17-game losing streak, which is unfathomable in the MLB. Now they have to face their division rival, the Minnesota Twins. On the bump for the Twins is going to be Joe Ryan; who just finished a rough July.
Ryan has all the talent to be a number-one starter in this league, but he has been inconsistent this season. However, I think he turns it on against this putrid White Sox squad. Ryan has made two starts against the White Sox this season with one game seeing Ryan hit this over, while the other game he fell short.
Ryan is known to be a lethal strikeout pitcher. He currently ranks in the 81st percentile in K%, while the White Sox bats are in the bottom 10 in that same category. The White Sox also own the 5th most strikeouts over the past 15 days. The losing streak is just draining the life of that squad and the hitting is the main aspect that is suffering. Look for Ryan to pitch a gem and hopefully coast past 6.5 strikeouts.
Cole Ragans Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-170)
Cole Ragans over 6.5 strikeouts was the one prop I was conflicted with. The Royals bullpen is pretty fresh and the Detroit Tigers have not struck out versus lefties that much all season. However, the last 15 days have been a different tune for the Tigers. Not only are the top 10 in strikeouts, but they have the worst AVG as a team in MLB.
The Tigers are in a lull and the Royals are aiming for a playoff spot for the first time in almost a decade. Their ace, Ragans, should shove today like how he did earlier in the season when he fanned 12 versus this Tigers club.
Ragans is an elite strikeout pitcher, as he is in the 93rd percentile in Whiff% and 87th percentile in K%. Despite being a solid team versus lefties, I think Ragans puts together a masterful performance. The Tigers' offense is struggling immensely and Ragans can be a vulture picking up the scraps tonight.
Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-155)
One of my favorite pitchers to fade this season has been Kevin Gausman. The former All-Star is going through a rough season, as he is rocking a 4.44 ERA. However, if you look deep into his peripheral numbers, you will see how much of a downfall this season is for Gausman.
His xERA is actually worse than his ERA at 4.85, which is in the 17th percentile. Then you look at his Hard-Hit% and Barrel% to see even more of an issue. His Hard-Hit% is in the 15th percentile, while the Barrel% is in the 8th percentile. Gausman faces a Yankees lineup that is on the top 3 in Hard-Hit% and Barrel%. The Yankees might slump on occasion, but they are always hitting the ball hard.
That notion has come into effect in two starts versus the Yankees this season. In those two starts, Gausman allowed 5 and 7 earned runs, respectively. The Yankees bully him at the plate and he can't recover, as he hasn't made it out of the 4th inning. I was thinking about taking his hits allowed, but the earned runs prop looks like money, especially after a complete game performance in his last start. Expect Gausman to fall back to his standard for this season.
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