Let the celebrations begin!!!! Monday was a perfect 3-0 slate to start the week off with a bang. Seth Lugo and Trevor Rogers had me scared at one point, but the baseball gods prevailed. Then there was the MVP of the night, Gavin Stone, who needed just 6 strikeouts but finished with 10.
Monday was a huge success, but it is time to try and replicate it. The board looks large and wide, so let's aim for the right ones. Here are the best three props for Wednesday.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
The Philadelphia Phillies have dominated the division all season, but things are starting to get a little tight in the NL East. The dominant team in the NL East for the past decade has been the Atlanta Braves, and despite dealing with a plethora of injuries to key guys, they are only 6 games back from the division. They already took game one of this series with the Phillies and look to gain even more ground tonight.
They have Max Fried on the mound, who has had an interesting season. He started the season off with an injury and has been inconsistent throughout. The one team he can't seem to shake is the Phillies. His first start against them was off to a bad start before he was pulled and his second start saw him get rocked for 11 hits and 5 earned runs. This is something that has built up over time.
Of the key players on the Phillies with at least 6 at-bats or more against Fried, 6 of them are hitting .300 or better. The Phillies as a team are the 2nd-best squad at hitting against lefties. Then when you look at Fried's splits, he is worse at home than on the road. On the road, Fried has a 3.23 ERA and OBA of .196, but at home, it is a staggering 4.27 ERA and .290 OBA.
This is an awful matchup for Fried and should be a smart look to roll with the over-on hits allowed.
Roddery Munoz Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)
At one point of the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks looked dead. Their run to the World Series last season was leaning toward the side of it being a fluke. However, they have completely turned things around and are in the second NL Wild Card spot. Their momentum should continue tonight, at least with the bats.
The D-Backs travel to Miami to face Roddery Munoz and the Marlins. Munoz in all honesty is not a good pitcher at the moment. He currently holds a 5.88 ERA, but it balloons to 6.63 at home. He is facing a scorching hot offense that in the past 15 days is top 5 in AVG and OPS while leading the league in runs scored.
I was thinking about betting on his over hits allowed, but Munoz walks a ton of batters, which is something the D-Backs take advantage of. The D-Backs are top 5 in BB%, while Munoz's line for walks is at 2.5. I think he gives up walks and hits, which transitions to the D-Backs putting up several runs. This is a line I can see making its way up to 3.5, so hurry and get it at 2.5.
Jack Flaherty 7+ Strikeouts (-235)
The tradition continues to roll on of my disdain for the Seattle Mariners and their lack of hitting. We were able to ride Gavin Stone to victory, so why not Jack Flaherty tonight?
I love Flaherty's line at 7.5 strikeouts, but he is susceptible to allowing runs and not going deep into games. Furthermore, he has hit this number in his first 3 starts as a Los Angeles Dodger. I do not want to take that chance with someone like Flaherty.
This is a bet that is based on the Mariners and their ineptitude. They looked solid against the Dodgers last night, but that was due to Walker Buehler pitching. Flaherty has been better and more consistent this season than Buehler. We all know the Mariners are dead last in almost every hitting category while being the most strikeout-prone squad in the MLB. They can't hit water if they fall off of a boat most nights. That is why I love fading them and will do so until the season is over.
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