After a beautiful sweep on Monday, the betting Gods decided to humble me on Wednesday, as I went 1-2. Luckily, there are more opportunities to cash out on player props. The weekend is here and what better way to get it started by increasing that bankroll?
Kyle Freeland 5+ Hits Allowed (-190)
When you look into Kyle Freeland's splits, you are befuddled. He pitches in the biggest negative ballpark for pitchers at Coors Field but holds a 3.86 ERA there. That would make you think he is at least a solid pitcher. However, the road numbers say otherwise.
Freeland has an 8.23 ERA and OBA of .364 on the road in 7 starts. It is as if Freeland was only meant to pitch in the highest of elevations and nothing else. Today's matchup might not be over-powering, but the New York Yankees still have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. The Yankees have been ice-cold batting except for their two studs, but Freeland is flat-out atrocious.
In his 7 road starts, Freeland has easily reached this number of hits allowed. The Yankees might be in a funk, but they are not afraid to pour it on bad pitchers. The line being at -190 is too good to pass up. Take the 5+ hits allowed and pray Freeland doesn't somehow find a spark.
Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155)
The Atlanta Braves are slowly climbing up the NL East standings, despite all of the injuries they have suffered all season. They just took 2 out of 3 against the division-leader Phillies and now get to face a struggling Nationals squad. The first pitcher they face in this series is MacKenzie Gore, who has not found his groove since a strong June.
Gore has a 5.52 ERA in 3 starts this month while allowing an OBA of .344. Furthermore, Gore has a rough time on the road. He currently holds a 5.06 ERA away from the nation's capital. Despite wanting to fade him to some degree, I decided to go with a Braves hitter.
Gore has had two good starts against the Braves this season and their lineup is decimated with injuries. I instead went with their best hitter this season, which is surprisingly Marcell Ozuna. If Shohei Ohtani was not the best player ever, Ozuna would probably be the NL MVP. Ozuna is currently hitting .308, 37 home runs, 94 RBIs, and an OPS of .972. The man is a machine this season.
He also has a solid history against Gore with 5 hits in 12 at-bats, including a home run. At home, Ozuna has an OPS of 1.007, while mashing 18 home runs. This is a perfect matchup for Ozuna and despite the lack of hitting from the overall team, he is still one of the better bats in baseball this season. Watch out for an Ozuna bomb today (+310).
Bobby Miller Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
Bobby Miller had such a strong rookie campaign for the Los Angeles Dodgers last season, but this year has been the opposite. He has dealt with injuries and several awful starts. However, I think this is the perfect bounce-back game for Miller. He has made 8 starts this year and only 2 have been at home. In those 2 home starts, Miller has an ERA of 1.64, while his road ERA is 11.12. That last home start did come on July 2nd, but Miller was solid through 5 innings and only allowed 2 earned runs.
Another reason why I believe in him is because he gets to face the Tampa Bay Rays, who are just waiting for the season to end. In the last 15 days, the Rays are tied for the worst AVG, while scoring the 2nd-fewest runs in MLB. The matchup is perfect for Miller and had a few props I was eyeing.
I was tempted by Miller's strikeouts and hits allowed, but I believe this is the prop that needs to be played. The Rays offense is struggling for a while now and Miller needs to find a way to get right before the postseason starts. I will roll with the under earned runs prop to get the weekend started.
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