Friday was not a success. A 1-2 record before the weekend is not ideal. It is time to not bank on batter props for the foreseeable future. They tend to be very volatile and hard to navigate even when a hitter has a great matchup or is at their hottest. The rule of thumb from now on is to stick with the guys you know will be out there for extended periods.
To start the week correctly, we must find three winners to regroup from Friday's losses. The slate is solid and I found my three plays with one including a team that I thought I would ban forever.
Ryan Pepiot Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)
For full transparency, I do not enjoy betting on Tampa Bay Rays' games. Something about their games always seems quirky and hard to read. No matter what the bet is, they seem to mess it up in some fashion. However, they play my number one favorite team to fade, the Seattle Mariners.
Pepiot has faced this putrid Mariners offense before and managed to have 8Ks in 5 innings of work. The Mariners still can't hit and still strike out a ton. They are still dead last in almost every hitting category you can find. They have become such an automatic team to fade. Granted, there have been times they have beaten me, but I have gotten the upper hand more times than not.
The strikeout total for someone like Pepiot is a little high, but it's the Mariners tax. They have the worst hitting in baseball and that is all I need to see for me to fade them at all costs. Take the strikeouts and ride the wave of fading the awful Mariners' bats.
Mitch Keller Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-130)
Mitch Keller can be feast or famine, but I think tonight is the night we ride with him to dinner. When you look at his home and road splits, they are on two ends of the spectrum. On the road, Keller has a 4.81 ERA, but at home holds a 2.58 ERA. The Chicago Cubs are an average at best hitting team with them being 15th in runs scored.
I like Keller in this spot, despite having some rough starts sprinkled around. However, when you look at his last 5 home outings, he only allowed this over once; two of which he allowed 0 runs. Mitch Keller at home is a pretty good pitcher with serious All-Star caliber stuff. The issues only manifest themselves on the road, while at home he becomes a lights-out pitcher.
The Cubs are mediocre, but they do have capable bats. This is not the perfect prop, but I think Keller pitches a fantastic game against a team he faced and only allowed 2 earned runs earlier in the season. The under-earned runs prop can be dangerous at times, but I want to trust Keller at home against the meh Cubs squad.
Bailey Ober Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-175)
Bailey Ober is not a household name and the Atlanta Braves have been perennial contenders for several years now. However, the numbers for this season tell a different story. The Braves are only in the middle of the pack in terms of AVG, but they fall to the bottom 10 on the road. Bailey Ober is tremendous at home. Ober is 7-1 with a 2.78 ERA and OBA of .197.
Ober has had an all-around solid season. He is currently 6th in the MLB in WHIP at 0.99. Ober has maintained to hit this under in 3 straight starts. The Braves are still dealing with a plethora of injuries that have hampered this offense. That is scary when they are facing someone like Ober who has great numbers all around.
Ober currently ranks in the 74th percentile in Hard-Hit%, 76th percentile in xERA, and 89th percentile in Chase%. Ober might not be popular in the public eye, but his numbers hold weight. I think the Braves name alone pushes this line a little higher than what it should be. That is why I believe taking this under is a must-play for tonight.
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