Last Friday was a bad showing, but Monday was even worse. An 0-3 fully faded slate hurt tremendously. Bailey Ober lasted 2 innings and still allowed 7 hits, while Mitch Keller was getting rocked. Ryan Pepiot put up a good fight but ultimately fell 1 strikeout short from the over. Seeing your props fully fade sucks, but there is always a new day to get back the coin.
Today is when we bounce back and find the perfect props to tail. There are some interesting matchups across the board, but here are the best of the best. Let's make some money today.
Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-140)
Chris Bassitt and the Toronto Blue Jays are a baseball conundrum. They have a lot of talent on paper and you think they have a chance to win every game you want to bet on and they just fall short. You look at the roster and then their record, and it becomes confusing as to what is going on up north.
Bassitt has had very good seasons, but this year he has a 4.41 ERA, which is his highest since 2016. He has a WHIP of 1.42, which is a far cry from the 1.18 he had last season. However, his road ERA is better by a wide margin than his home ERA. His home ERA sits at 4.76, while his road ERA is at 3.90, but that is not what I want to fade; it is his hits prop. Bassitt has the same OBA on both the road and home at .267.
The Boston Red Sox are a very good hitting squad. They are in the top 10 in both hits and AVG at home. They are in the top 7 in Barrel% and Hard-Hit%, which are two stats that Bassitt is below average in. Also, the Red Sox's biggest weakness is strikeouts. They have the 3rd-worst K%, but Bassitt is only in the 45th percentile in K% while being below the 20th percentile in Whiff% and Chase%.
The books see Bassitt getting rocked today, as there is a 3.5 earned runs prop as well. Bassitt is a pitcher you must fade today and I think the hits allowed prop is the way to go.
Kyle Freeland Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (+105)
This past Friday was a rough slate as I previously stated. However, the one bright spot was fading Kyle Freeland, but it was not easy. His over/under on hits allowed was 5.5, but I wanted to be safe and go with 5+ hits allowed. It took 6.2 innings and 106 pitches to allow those 5 hits. He was great on Friday in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. Hopefully, he wins me another bet, but this time with me on his side.
Picking anything under for Freeland can be scary at times. Even his under on outs recorded can be nerve-wracking because of how much he is capable of eating innings. However, I talked about how good he is at home and today is the perfect matchup for him at Coors Field. Freeland has a .245 OBA at home, while on the road that OBA jumps to .341. Freeland in a way has mastered how to pitch at a ballpark like Coors Field.
The one thing Freeland is susceptible to is letting up home runs and hard contact. Luckily, he plays the Miami Marlins, who are in the bottom 7 in Hard-Hit% and Barrel%. I think this works in favor of Freeland, who has only allowed this over in 2 of his last 7 starts at home. I agree that backing Freeland is a nasty play, but the numbers say this is the correct prop to play.
Walker Buehler 5+ Hits Allowed (-165)
At one point in his career, Walker Buehler was looked at as the ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Fast forward to today and he might not be a starter come time for the playoffs. That is what happens when you get two Tommy John surgeries. Now he is trying to regain some of that spark and it is simply not clicking.
Buehler has been a nightmare this season. He is 1-4 with an ERA of 6.09 and WHIP of 1.67. He has made two previous starts in August, which has led to a 7.36 ERA and OBA of .344. Tonight, he faces the Baltimore Orioles, who have been a little cold with the bats as of late. However, they still rank in the top 10 for the entire season in most hitting categories.
The Orioles have the potential to turn it on at any given moment. I also believe that getting Buehler's prop to 5+ hits allowed when he has soared over this number in 4 of his last 5 starts is a great play.
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