Wednesday was so close to becoming another sweep on the props board. Unfortunately, Michael King fell one strikeout short of hitting the over. However, we will always take a positive night in the green. Let's see if we can end the week strong and head into the weekend up in the bankroll for football. The board is robust today and there are many interesting matchups to choose from. Here are the best three props to head into the weekend.
Dylan Cease Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
The last two months of the season for Dylan Cease has not been ideal. In his two September starts, he is at a 5.73 ERA; in August, he was at a 4.43 ERA. Cease is supposed to be the ace for this San Diego Padres team looking to make a playoff run, but he is beginning to falter. That comes into effect when you look at this line and his recent performances.
In his last 7 starts, Cease has only eclipsed this over just once. He only surpassed 5 strikeouts once in that same timeframe. Then there is the opponent at hand, the San Francisco Giants. Cease has faced this team three times already this season with some mixed results. He was able to reach the over in one of those three starts but faced them in his last start where he only managed 4 strikeouts and allowed 4 earned runs.
The Giants have seen Cease three times and are very comfortable with his pitches, which was the case last week. The Giants can be a hit-or-miss team in the betting world, but I believe they pull off another good team performance against Cease. Take the under on his strikeouts and do not expect it to be easy with someone of his caliber.
Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135)
The hottest-hitting team over the second half of the season has easily been the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have been consistent for most of the year, but have really elevated themselves over the last few months. On a smaller scale over the past 15 days, the D-Backs have a batting average of .290 and an OPS of .885. This has helped them move to the second-best AVG and best OPS for the entire season.
Freddy Peralta is a very good pitcher with some flaws, but he is a better pitcher on the road compared to at home. His OBA on the road is at .214, while it balloons to .237 at home. Furthermore, he has only allowed this over once in his last five starts. Peralta's splits indicate that he is in line for a dominant start, but I believe heavily in the D-Backs' bats.
Peralta is a good on the road, but the D-Backs are excellent at home. They own the number one spot in AVG and OPS while being in the top three in BABIP at home. Furthermore, Peralta is a big whiff and strikeout type of pitcher. He is in the 87th percentile in Whiff% and 79th percentile in K%, but the D-Backs do not whiff at all, as they own the 5th-best K% in the MLB.
All signs point towards a slight regression from Peralta against a hot-hitting opponent. I think the line is a little short and want to see if I can take advantage of it.
Aaron Nola Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-160)
I was on the side with the first ace of the Philadelphia Phillies Zack Wheeler earlier in the week, so let's see if the other ace of the Phillies can bring home some money for us. I love this under for Aaron Nola in his start against the New York Mets today. The biggest reason why is because Nola is at home.
Nola's home splits are almost Cy Young quality. He has a 2.88 ERA, OBA of .214, and 93 strikeouts compared to 22 walks. He is a special pitcher in Citizens Bank Park. Then when you look at this prop and his recent home starts, it makes you love it even more. He has not allowed more than 2 earned runs in five straight home starts.
The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10, but they are still hitting very poorly. In the last 15 days, they are in the bottom 10 of the league in AVG and OPS. Furthermore, Nola faced the Mets once this season and pitched a 4-hit shutout. Nola has a really great chance of having a stellar outing. This is by far my favorite play of the day.
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