Welcome to another week of betting player props in the MLB. Last week was a solid outing, despite ending the week going 1-2. Aaron Nola was rocked for 6 earned runs, while Dylan Cease pitched an absolute gem and soaring over his strikeout total. Hopefully, we can do a little better this week and make even more money. The slate today is a little bit shorter, but there are still some gems to be found. Here are the three best player props to get the week started in the green.
Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
The Philadelphia Phillies are so close to winning the division for the first time since 2011. They are on a roll right now and know they cannot let their foot off the gas. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to face the Brewers, who they might see in the postseason. This is a big matchup for them and will have Ranger Suarez take the mound to start the series off with a victory.
Suarez has had a very good season this year while making his first All-Star appearance. The one aspect of Suarez's game is not allowing hard contact, which can most cases lead to runs. Suarez has a 3.05 ERA, but that ERA is even better on the road at 2.60. The Brewers do not excel in their home ballpark. They are in the bottom half of the league in SLG and AVG at home.
Furthermore, the Brewers are cold at the plate. Over the last 15 days, they are in the bottom 5 within MLB in AVG, but rank in the top 10 in SLG. However, Suarez is great at not allowing the hard-hit balls, as he ranks in the 92nd percentile in barrel% and 80th percentile in hard-hit%. In 8 of his 11 road starts, Suarez has hit the under on this prop. As long as Suarez offers soft contact, this under should be able to hit.
Shota Imanaga Over 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-170)
The Chicago Cubs are technically in the playoff race, but with so little games left, it looks like their season might be over. Despite the loss of their playoff hopes, they do have some bright pieces to build off of. One of whom is their Japanese pitcher they brought in, Shota Imanaga.
Imanaga has been consistent all season and has sported one of the lowest ERAs all year at 3.03 currently. However, I am going to fade Imanaga tonight against a team that nobody would even think about believing in. That team is the Oakland Athletics. I think that they have the chance to score some runs against this great pitcher.
There is one thing Imanaga struggles with and that is allowing hard contact. He is in the 30th percentile in barrel% and 47th percentile in hard-hit%. The A's rank in the top 12 in barrel% and hard-hit%. Furthermore, they can mash lefties. They rank 11th in MLB in SLG against left-handed pitchers.
The A's are not a very good baseball franchise at the moment and that is why pitcher props against them tend to sway one side. However, I think this line is too low and I want to see if I can catch the books off-guard.
Antonio Senzatela Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-135)
Antonio Senzatela is making his return to the majors after a long stint on the IL. The veteran pitcher has had lots of struggles on the mound his career and I think today might be another example of that notion. He has pitched 96 innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his career and it is not pretty. Senzatela is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and WHIP of 1.54. This is not a good opponent for his start back at all.
The D-Backs are an secret offensive juggernaut. They rank in the top 5 in most hitting categories including AVG, SLG, OPS, and wRC+. They are also at home where they have the best AVG by 10 points. This is a dangerous squad at the plate.
There is a chance that Senzatela does not go very long in this game tonight. However, I think the D-Backs still find a way to get to him and do it early. This team can get out in a hurry. They have this guy's number and being at home makes the over look even better.
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