Monday was a rough start to the betting week after a 1-2 record. Ranger Suarez looks like he is slowing down and can't locate pitches properly. Then there was the Antonio Senzatela prop that should've easily cashed. Despite him pitching only three innings, the Diamondbacks left several runners on base and did not go for the jugular. They instead played with their food and it cost them in the end.
The regular season is drawing to a close and it is harder to navigate through the weeds to find the best player props. That does not mean we are not going to keep on trying. Wednesday brings new opportunities, so let's look for those props that can cash us out.
Bowden Francis Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-165)
The matchup today between the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers is one of disappointment on both sides. The Rangers are the defending champions that were looking to stake a claim in the American League, but are falling short of the playoffs with some now thinking was last year just a mirage. Then there are the Blue Jays who for years have been talked about as the team that is up next, but are failing to make the postseason with their talented core.
Despite the failures of both organizations, the Blue Jays might have struck gold in Bowden Francis. The 28-year-old has been a reliever for the past few seasons but has been promoted to a starter for 11 games this year. In those 11 outings, Francis has obtained a 3.14 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. He might be the real deal and that is why I want to ride with him today.
The Rangers' offense has been mediocre all season long and that becomes worse with the loss of Corey Seager for the rest of the season. In Francis' last 7 starts, he has only allowed this over in one of them. The Rangers are ready to enter the off-season and retool, but Francis is ready to make a statement and head into next season as a top starter in the Blue Jays rotation.
Landon Knack Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
Fading the Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher against the Miami Marlins seems odd on paper, but there is a great reason for this. The Dodgers do not want to start Landon Knack, but due to the plethora of injuries to their starting rotation, they need to throw arms out there and pray some of them can stick for the postseason roster. Furthermore, the Marlins are a pretty solid hitting squad at home.
The Marlins rank in the top 12 in AVG at home, but over in the month of September, they have been a lot better all-around. They are in the top 7 in MLB at home in AVG, OPS, and BABIP. The Marlins are secretly on fire at the plate.
Knack should struggle, as he is not a major league pitcher according to the data. He is below the 20th percentile in barrel%, hard-hit%, and whiff%. Knack does not have a single good pitching quality, but the Dodgers need him. They used five bullpen arms yesterday in a high-scoring affair against this same Marlins squad. There is a great chance that Knack has to muster up at least 5 innings of work. The more he stays out there on the mound, the more I love this over.
Dean Kremer Under 2.5 Walks Allowed (-200)
Typically when you look at the walks props they tend to say 1.5 walks allowed. That is pretty much the baseline for the prop, but Dean Kremer is listed at 2.5. Why is that? Well, Kremer is in the 28th percentile in BB%. He is also facing a San Francisco Giants team that ranks 12th in BB%. However, the last month says that this line might be overblown.
The Giants rank 23rd in BB% and 28th in total walks generated over the past 30 days. In his last 8 starts, Kremer has finished with under 3 walks allowed as well. The Giants are struggling at the plate to generate anything, while Kremer has started off September scorching hot.
This line might be based on the entire season's body of work, but the past month is telling me a different story. I think this is an absurd line that might be overblown. I am happily taking the under here and not looking back.
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