The regular season is almost over with some teams still jockeying for playoff positioning and others ready for the vacation to Cancun. However, we are in the business of sports betting and winning. Despite only a handful of teams still playing meaningful baseball, there are still player props to capture my eye. Last Friday was so close to a perfect record, as Zac Gallen was a strikeout away from hitting the over. Unfortunately, he proceeded to let up 4 straight runs and ruined all hope for the sweep. Overall, it was a positive night; let's try to make tonight another one.
Zac Gallen 6+ Strikeouts (-180)
The great Michael Scott once said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." After missing Zac Gallen's strikeouts last week, I will shoot for it again. Before his last start, Gallen went 5-straight starts with at least 6 strikeouts. Unfortunately, that streak ended when we bet on him, but this is another great spot for him to succeed.
Gallen is pitching at home where he is a lot better at. He has 14 starts at home compared to 13 on the road but has 13 more Ks in his home ballpark. Furthermore, the Arizona Diamondbacks are facing a San Francisco Giants team that is fully ready to move on from this season.
Gallen has faced this squad twice this season, both of which were in San Francisco. In those two outings, Gallen recorded at least 6 strikeouts. Furthermore, the Giants have the 5th-highest K% over the past month. They are very prone to whiffs and that is where Gallen thrives. I wouldn't mind taking the actual over at 7 strikeouts, but I wanted to play it safe with a line that is under -200.
Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
The Toronto Blue Jays had a very disappointing season that culminated in a missed playoff berth. The talent is there for the Blue Jays, but they can't seem to put it together. They have great hitters and Cy Young-caliber pitchers, such as Kevin Gausman. When you look at the overall numbers, Gausman had a decent season, but the splits are a tale of two stories.
Gausman has struggled immensely at home. He has a 5.26 ERA at home compared to a 2.51 ERA on the road. However, his last few home starts have not been as bad. Also, he is facing a team that has shut down their best hitter in Rafael Devers and owns the 3rd-worst ranking in K%.
This prop is scary due to Gausman not hitting this mark in two prior matchups against this Red Sox team, but I want to take this chance. The Red Sox do not have Devers and they are inclined to sit some players that have dealt with injuries. Also, the Blue Jays bullpen is thin. I think Gausman has to throw a lot of pitches today to help the bullpen and that should lead to strikeouts against a team that is easily susceptible to whiffs. This is a risky play, but at the end of the season, it is okay to take some risks. Take the over and watch with one eye open.
Dylan Cease Over 2,5 Walks Allowed (-140)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are in the playoffs once again, but they still do not have the division locked up just yet. The San Diego Padres are on fire and only two games back from the Dodgers for first place. This series between the two rivals might become the most important series of the regular season after the Padres clinched a playoff spot with a win over the Dodgers last night.
Tonight, Dylan Cease takes the mound after back-to-back spectacular outings. Despite the hot streak that Cease is on, I want to fade him tonight, but only in the walks department. Cease ranks in the 42nd percentile in BB%, which is not ideal when you are facing the Dodgers, who are in the top 3 in BB% as a team.
The Dodgers have an all-world lineup with two of their top hitters Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani obtaining 2 of the top 5 spots in the league leaders in walks. Cease has faced this team once before and allowed 3 walks in 5.2 innings. The number is high for a reason and that is what drew me to it. I think the Dodgers are a patient and well-oiled hitting machine that should generate walks against a pitcher that can be shaky at times.
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